Sum of runners in last 3 races

[davejb]

I'd spreadsheet it hedgehog - one thing I discovered early on is that if you don't keep good records then it is easy to make assumptions about what is working and what isn't, which just leads you up the garden path.... rather than just keeping notes a spreadsheet let's you do all sorts of filtering checks, you can work out 'what if' ideas and see how profitable they might be.

I see Sam's Adventure was 3rd pick along with Crosspark? Do you have a method for deciding which to go with when there are equally valid choices, or would you bet on all 4?
Dave

 

[hedgehog]

Hello davejb , I'm not betting them at all at present as I can't remember if the idea makes a profit. I'll run the idea for a while but I think it is predictive but not profitable. A bit like winners always have 4 legs.

Tomorrow
Sha tin 6am
Top 2 is actually 3 team spirit, beauty legacy and highly proactive

Naas 3.30
Top 2 willywampus and saeer
3rd zoffinien

Good luck and stay well

 

[hedgehog]

6am and way too early, won by highly proactive 17/2 though I'm willing to be corrected on that price

Top 2 3/8 top 3 5/8 and I think both finally in profit. I suppose I'll have to start a spreadsheet to keep track

Good luck today and stay well

 

[hedgehog]

Adding another for today not a handicap but a very decent prize

Fontwell 3.10

Top 2 mcfabulous and Molly Olly's wishes
3rd brewinupastorm

Good luck and stay well

 

[hedgehog]

3.10 won by brewinupastorm 3/1

3.30 won by zoffanien 6/4f

Top 2 3/10 top 3 7/10

Tomorrow plumpton 1.30

Top 2 natural history and hirjan
3rd group stage

Looks like I'll be eating humble pie with ArkRoyal at the end of this test

Good luck and stay well

 

[hedgehog]

It's probably a fluke but it reminds me of something mtoto did.

A couple of days ago espior de grilled won at 25/1. The 3crs were 6, 7 and 12 but looking at the other CRS from the field the only one below or equal to 12 was EDT with 10.

Today sha tin the 3crs were 9, 17, 19 and 19, highly proactive was 17 and the only one less than or equal to 19. The rp had HP as 22/1 in the forecast the night before.

Good luck and stay well

 

[hedgehog]

1.30 won by natural history 8/13f hirjan nr

Top 2 4/11 top 3 8/11

Tomorrow Newcastle 4.00
Top 2 island brave and rare groove
3rd jedhi and this is within the 13 maximum 3cr, backed up by 3 runs and epr. Could be one of those double figure winners that isn't a shock

Good luck and stay well

 

[hedgehog]

4.00 won by carwennan so drew a blank

Top 2 4/12 top 3 8/12

Tomorrow kempton 4.45
Top 2 racing country and master of the stars
3rd Lucky's dream

Good luck tomorrow and stay well

 

[hedgehog]

4.45 won by assimilation so drew a blank and got nutted on the line

Top 2 4/13 top 3 8/13

Tomorrow southwell 2.15
Top 2 aljari and muntadab
3rd rock sound

Good luck tomorrow and stay well

 

[hedgehog]

4.45 won by stone soldier so drew a blank

Top 2 4/14 top 3 8/14

Tomorrow Newbury 3.00
Top 2 actually 3 le ligerien , William h bonney and shut the box

Good luck tomorrow and stay well

 

[hedgehog]

3.00 won by editeur du gite so drew a blank

Top 2 4/15 top 3 8/15

To get 60% for the top 2 within 50 races would require 26 wins in 35 remaining races which I don't think is possible.

Sorry ArkRoyal I was most definitely wrong, you were right to be pessimistic.

I'll draw this thread to a close now

Good luck and stay well

 

[ArkRoyal]

No need to apologise hedgehog I just couldn't see a good reason as to why horses that had run against more opponents would be more likely to win next time out.