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Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up. Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem. Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay! Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to. Keep safe. AR
Sum of runners in last 3 races
- Thread starter hedgehog
- Start date
formtheory
Mare
retriever
Gelding
I saw your post last night.....I thought that looked a pretty cool idea ( even if it doesn't work ).
I got out of bed this morning purely with the intention of following this idea up!!.....lol
I guess it's a precursor of the P/R idea which I have been keeping an eye on recently.
Are there any race types this new idea may be more suited to
hedgehog ?
Maybe Handicaps over Non-Handicaps? or not.....
Do last 3 races have to be the same? ie. Handicaps or Non.
What do you do if the top have same numbers for horses at the top? Take the highest on the card?
Good luck with it anyways......I hope it bears some fruit.
I got out of bed this morning purely with the intention of following this idea up!!.....lol
I guess it's a precursor of the P/R idea which I have been keeping an eye on recently.
Are there any race types this new idea may be more suited to
hedgehog ?Maybe Handicaps over Non-Handicaps? or not.....
Do last 3 races have to be the same? ie. Handicaps or Non.
What do you do if the top have same numbers for horses at the top? Take the highest on the card?
Good luck with it anyways......I hope it bears some fruit.
retriever
Gelding
It will be interesting to see how this turns out as Gipsy De Choisel has only one race under its belt.Gipsy De Choisel is my selection in there
Perhaps 'trebling up' in such cases ie. 3 x 6 ?
Similar to what the Fineform formula does with one season run ie. doubles up that last placing.
hedgehog
Mare
formtheory I hope you're right, I'm trying to prove the top 2 get 60% so 1 race will have little impact. Very good luck to you.
retriever I focus on handicaps so not sure about non handicaps. It's not the top 2 or but the 2 highest sums from the field. I got stats on this ages ago for my Bayesian inference spreadsheet. I'll have a mooch about and see if I can find the likelihood ratios. I'm hoping it is profitable but I can't remember if it is.More grist for the mill
Uttoxeter 1.57
Top 2 the Macon lugnatil and when you're ready
3rd gustavian
It's only a 5 runner affair but Irish racing led me to think it was 8.
I'm hoping I get 60% otherwise I'll have to admit
ArkRoyal was right to be sceptical.I'm using the figures for completed races. When I first had this idea years ago I thought it might explain why Irish runners do so well at Cheltenham as they tend to run in bigger fields but that may turn out to be tosh.
Good luck today and stay well
hedgehog
Mare
retriever , i found the likelihood ratios. 5/6 in betting forecast 1.48 for 0.27 against and dividing one by the other 5.48
3 most consisten from above for 1.50 against 0.84 ratio 1.79
3 biggest sum of runners from last 3 races for 1.28 against 0.86 ratio 1.49
5/6 gets about 80% winners, 3cr about 55% so I think I've over egged the pudding saying top 2 3 runners gets 60%.
I'll keep plodding on with this thread to get a recent strike and ROI
1.57 gustavian won so top 2 0/1 and top 3 1/1
Good luck today and stay well
hedgehog
Mare
5.10 won by futuristic 13/8f
ArkRoyal , I don't know why it works. Maybe if I keep plodding on with this thread I'll be able to show it is worthy.
Tomorrow Newcastle 5.40
Top 2 edraak and rathbone, 3rd diocles of Rome
So far top 2 1/3 top 3 2/3
Top 3 seems to be doing okay but not making a profit with 2 13/8fs
Good luck tomorrow and stay well
ArkRoyal , I don't know why it works. Maybe if I keep plodding on with this thread I'll be able to show it is worthy.Tomorrow Newcastle 5.40
Top 2 edraak and rathbone, 3rd diocles of Rome
So far top 2 1/3 top 3 2/3
Top 3 seems to be doing okay but not making a profit with 2 13/8fs
Good luck tomorrow and stay well
davejb
Mare
So the idea is simply to add up how many runners a horse has competed against in its last three races, and back the top two or three according to that? So if a horse comes last of 15, last of 20, last of 20 he's probably a bet?
I suspect there's more to this process than I've guessed
hedgehog, not least because your winners so far have been at short prices - which my last last last example certainly wouldn't be!
Good luck with your efforts,
Dave
I suspect there's more to this process than I've guessed
hedgehog, not least because your winners so far have been at short prices - which my last last last example certainly wouldn't be! Good luck with your efforts,
Dave
formtheory
Mare
hedgehog
Mare
Sorry
formtheory , I've been noticing good form seems to not be as effective as it was
7.00 won by rock sound 3/1
Top 2 2/5 top 3 3/5 and still neither are making a profit
Tomorrow Warwick 3.53
Top 2 blaklion and champagne court
3rd benatar
Good luck tomorrow and stay well
formtheory , I've been noticing good form seems to not be as effective as it was7.00 won by rock sound 3/1
Top 2 2/5 top 3 3/5 and still neither are making a profit
Tomorrow Warwick 3.53
Top 2 blaklion and champagne court
3rd benatar
Good luck tomorrow and stay well
davejb
Mare
@Hedghog
Is this idea at all profitable? 2/6 and 3/6 are good returns if you are only backing one horse, but how do you make a profit from backing three in a race if the win rate across all three is 50%?
Couldn't this be improved by applying some filtering to remove the really poor chances?
Dave
Is this idea at all profitable? 2/6 and 3/6 are good returns if you are only backing one horse, but how do you make a profit from backing three in a race if the win rate across all three is 50%?
Couldn't this be improved by applying some filtering to remove the really poor chances?
Dave