• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
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    Simply enter the coupon code ukbettingform when subscribing here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Inform Racing so help is always available if needed.
    Best Wishes
    AR
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR

Sum of runners in last 3 races

hedgehog

Mare
ArkRoyal ArkRoyal has given me something to test

I'll be checking the sum of runners in a horse's last 3 races. I'll keep a track of top 2 and 3 for a race to see how they go.

Start 100 pts 1pt win on each group

Market rasen 3.15

Top 2 dream du grand val
And Langer Dan
3rd Mick maestro

Good luck today
 

retriever

Gelding
I saw your post last night.....I thought that looked a pretty cool idea ( even if it doesn't work ).
I got out of bed this morning purely with the intention of following this idea up!!.....lol

I guess it's a precursor of the P/R idea which I have been keeping an eye on recently.

Are there any race types this new idea may be more suited to hedgehog hedgehog ?
Maybe Handicaps over Non-Handicaps? or not.....
Do last 3 races have to be the same? ie. Handicaps or Non.
What do you do if the top have same numbers for horses at the top? Take the highest on the card?
Good luck with it anyways......I hope it bears some fruit.
 

retriever

Gelding
Gipsy De Choisel is my selection in there hedgehog hedgehog so hope your wrong lol 😂
It will be interesting to see how this turns out as Gipsy De Choisel has only one race under its belt.
Perhaps 'trebling up' in such cases ie. 3 x 6 ?
Similar to what the Fineform formula does with one season run ie. doubles up that last placing.
 

hedgehog

Mare
formtheory formtheory I hope you're right, I'm trying to prove the top 2 get 60% so 1 race will have little impact. Very good luck to you.

retriever retriever I focus on handicaps so not sure about non handicaps. It's not the top 2 or but the 2 highest sums from the field. I got stats on this ages ago for my Bayesian inference spreadsheet. I'll have a mooch about and see if I can find the likelihood ratios. I'm hoping it is profitable but I can't remember if it is.

More grist for the mill

Uttoxeter 1.57

Top 2 the Macon lugnatil and when you're ready
3rd gustavian

It's only a 5 runner affair but Irish racing led me to think it was 8.

I'm hoping I get 60% otherwise I'll have to admit ArkRoyal ArkRoyal was right to be sceptical.

I'm using the figures for completed races. When I first had this idea years ago I thought it might explain why Irish runners do so well at Cheltenham as they tend to run in bigger fields but that may turn out to be tosh.

Good luck today and stay well
 

hedgehog

Mare
retriever retriever , i found the likelihood ratios.

5/6 in betting forecast 1.48 for 0.27 against and dividing one by the other 5.48
3 most consisten from above for 1.50 against 0.84 ratio 1.79
3 biggest sum of runners from last 3 races for 1.28 against 0.86 ratio 1.49

5/6 gets about 80% winners, 3cr about 55% so I think I've over egged the pudding saying top 2 3 runners gets 60%.

I'll keep plodding on with this thread to get a recent strike and ROI

1.57 gustavian won so top 2 0/1 and top 3 1/1

Good luck today and stay well
 

ArkRoyal

Administrator
hedgehog hedgehog I have attached a list of todays races and runners sorted by the most runners in their last 3 races. If a horse hasn't had 3 races I set it to -999
 

Attachments

  • Hedgehog.xlsm
    49.6 KB · Views: 13

hedgehog

Mare
Hello ArkRoyal ArkRoyal , on this tablet I can't access the file. Thank you for creating it.

3.15 ajero wins so drew a blank

Top 2 0/2 top 3 1/2.

ArkRoyal ArkRoyal how badly does this idea do? Is it worth continuing?

Good luck and stay well
 

hedgehog

Mare
Hello ArkRoyal ArkRoyal , it was from memory which at my age is always dodgy

Today wolves 5.10

Top 2 which is actually 3
Sun power, futuristic and need we go again

Good luck today and stay well
 

ArkRoyal

Administrator
Checked yesterdays handicap races and I could only find one winner coming from the top 2. It's only one day but I cannot see what 'racing' reason this could be based upon.
 

hedgehog

Mare
5.10 won by futuristic 13/8f

ArkRoyal ArkRoyal , I don't know why it works. Maybe if I keep plodding on with this thread I'll be able to show it is worthy.

Tomorrow Newcastle 5.40

Top 2 edraak and rathbone, 3rd diocles of Rome

So far top 2 1/3 top 3 2/3

Top 3 seems to be doing okay but not making a profit with 2 13/8fs

Good luck tomorrow and stay well
 

hedgehog

Mare
6.40 won by tadleel so drew a blank

Top 2 1/4 top 3 2/4

Tomorrow punchestown 2.55

Top 2 Lynnwood gold and Bois de clamart
3rd westerner point

Good luck tomorrow and stay well
 

davejb

Mare
So the idea is simply to add up how many runners a horse has competed against in its last three races, and back the top two or three according to that? So if a horse comes last of 15, last of 20, last of 20 he's probably a bet?
I suspect there's more to this process than I've guessed hedgehog hedgehog, not least because your winners so far have been at short prices - which my last last last example certainly wouldn't be!
Good luck with your efforts,
Dave
 

hedgehog

Mare
Hello davejb davejb , basically that's the idea. It's very simple though the bigger a race the more chance of an end to end gallop.

Punches town abandoned

Tomorrow southwell 7.00

Lord Oberon and rock sound
3rd medicine jack

Good luck tomorrow and stay well
 

hedgehog

Mare
Sorry formtheory formtheory , I've been noticing good form seems to not be as effective as it was

7.00 won by rock sound 3/1

Top 2 2/5 top 3 3/5 and still neither are making a profit

Tomorrow Warwick 3.53

Top 2 blaklion and champagne court
3rd benatar

Good luck tomorrow and stay well
 

hedgehog

Mare
3.53 won by espior De teillee so drew a blank

Top 2 2/6 top 3 3/6

Today Newcastle 3.15
Top 2 big River and crossley tender
3rd crosspark and Sam's adventure

Good luck and stay well
 

davejb

Mare
@Hedghog
Is this idea at all profitable? 2/6 and 3/6 are good returns if you are only backing one horse, but how do you make a profit from backing three in a race if the win rate across all three is 50%?
Couldn't this be improved by applying some filtering to remove the really poor chances?
Dave
 

hedgehog

Mare
Hello davejb davejb , I think you're right and I'm doing this pen and paper, no spreadsheets or databases, so at the moment I don't know what filters to apply. I'll bear it in mind going forwards

3.15 won by Sam's adventure 15/2

Top 2 2/7 top 3 4/7 and still no profit

Good luck and stay well
 
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