Delboy99
Dam
... pardon my lack of horsey knowledge. I stand corrected.
Steve's AW Speed Ratings
- Thread starter SteveT
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- speed ratings
damien2009
Newbie
Hi Steve I have got some figures together and struggling with weight adjustment
Any idea how I would get the formula correct for this
I am. Using previous race winning times and winning distance giving me average MPH run in that race at that weight I wanted to work with something that can be adjust to potential run speed for coming race
Any idea how I would get the formula correct for this
I am. Using previous race winning times and winning distance giving me average MPH run in that race at that weight I wanted to work with something that can be adjust to potential run speed for coming race
damien2009
Newbie
Hey Steve woundering if u could help. With the weight adjustments
I currently I have average MPH per race from time and distance and winning distance want to get some. Sort of adjustment of weight in there I wanted to work from 9-0st been racking my. Brain all day with it
I currently I have average MPH per race from time and distance and winning distance want to get some. Sort of adjustment of weight in there I wanted to work from 9-0st been racking my. Brain all day with it
damien2009
Newbie
Just noticed I posted twice last night 1st message wasn't showing so sent another 
SteveT
Mare
Hi
D
damien2009 Sorry for the late reply been busy with work.
You dont mention it but i assume you have a lbs per length figure to work with for each distance, this is worked out from the standard time for the distance at each course.
As an example i have 57.99 for the 5 furlongs at Chelmsford and the lbs per Lgth is 200/57.99 = 3.45, if you dont have any of these i can post up my std times and lbs per Lgth figures for you.
Also have you read the other excellent threads that can help you achieve what you need, i can give you a speed template workbook that was created by one of the other forum members to help get started with speed ratings. I only do the AW courses due to the time it takes in producing speed figures and keeping them updated, its not an easy task to undertake especially once the winter season starts and because of my shift paterns i am always playing catch up.
Alot of time is needed to study and read up on everything you can to understand the different ways to approach creating a set of ratings, if you look on the compiling speed figures thread you will find an explination on using 9-0 and a 100 base figure and a video i also think if you are going to just use a MPH figure then you would perhaps need to produce your own set of STD Times if there was enough data to go on.
You could work out the time beaten and multiply this by the Lbs per Lgth then deduct that but you must also consider this that it is not always the fastest horse that wins the race, yes it may have a good average MPH but just remember that the jockey and trainer also influence how horse A runs, the going allowance which is how much the surface has slowed or helped speed up the horse whether the jockey is holding up the horse and saving it for the last couple of furlongs ?.
I do have each horses average MPH to look back on in my database and this can sometimes show me if it has a chance or not and by looking at this it has shown me that horse A has run say 4 races over this particular CD and has shown a good MPH average yet it did not get placed in 3 of those races but won 1 at a slower speed.
So even though it can run a faster race that speed is not suitable for it because it has run its best before those final couple of furlongs and so to me says it would be more suited to running in slower run races if that makes sense.
At the end of the day you will need to put in alot of time and effort in to create your own unique set of figures that will just help you to reduce the field, most of my winners come from the top 3 rated but i do have runs of a few days to a couple of weeks where the winner comes from the bottom half of my figures for one reason or another.
In the end speed ratings are just a tool to help you analyze a race and hopefully help point you in the right direction, a little return for alot of time consuming work which can be satisfying when you get it right and make you think why do i bother when you dont.
Hope this has helped you and if you have any more questions then just ask and i will help you if i can, read the other threads in this section and also the Early days it could help answer alot of your questions or give you food for thought anyway.
cheers
SteveT
You dont mention it but i assume you have a lbs per length figure to work with for each distance, this is worked out from the standard time for the distance at each course.
As an example i have 57.99 for the 5 furlongs at Chelmsford and the lbs per Lgth is 200/57.99 = 3.45, if you dont have any of these i can post up my std times and lbs per Lgth figures for you.
Also have you read the other excellent threads that can help you achieve what you need, i can give you a speed template workbook that was created by one of the other forum members to help get started with speed ratings. I only do the AW courses due to the time it takes in producing speed figures and keeping them updated, its not an easy task to undertake especially once the winter season starts and because of my shift paterns i am always playing catch up.
Alot of time is needed to study and read up on everything you can to understand the different ways to approach creating a set of ratings, if you look on the compiling speed figures thread you will find an explination on using 9-0 and a 100 base figure and a video i also think if you are going to just use a MPH figure then you would perhaps need to produce your own set of STD Times if there was enough data to go on.
You could work out the time beaten and multiply this by the Lbs per Lgth then deduct that but you must also consider this that it is not always the fastest horse that wins the race, yes it may have a good average MPH but just remember that the jockey and trainer also influence how horse A runs, the going allowance which is how much the surface has slowed or helped speed up the horse whether the jockey is holding up the horse and saving it for the last couple of furlongs ?.
I do have each horses average MPH to look back on in my database and this can sometimes show me if it has a chance or not and by looking at this it has shown me that horse A has run say 4 races over this particular CD and has shown a good MPH average yet it did not get placed in 3 of those races but won 1 at a slower speed.
So even though it can run a faster race that speed is not suitable for it because it has run its best before those final couple of furlongs and so to me says it would be more suited to running in slower run races if that makes sense.
At the end of the day you will need to put in alot of time and effort in to create your own unique set of figures that will just help you to reduce the field, most of my winners come from the top 3 rated but i do have runs of a few days to a couple of weeks where the winner comes from the bottom half of my figures for one reason or another.
In the end speed ratings are just a tool to help you analyze a race and hopefully help point you in the right direction, a little return for alot of time consuming work which can be satisfying when you get it right and make you think why do i bother when you dont.
Hope this has helped you and if you have any more questions then just ask and i will help you if i can, read the other threads in this section and also the Early days it could help answer alot of your questions or give you food for thought anyway.
cheers
SteveT
damien2009
Newbie
Thank you for reply very helpfull I will get on with creating my own standerd times and will compare with the ones u have posted here as a comparison see if I am on the right track
I did read I needed the standerd times and the lbs per length but wasn't sure if this was right thanks for clearing this up
Also if u could post the template workbook that would be great to Look at
Yes I agree with the average fastest MPH does not necessarily mean this depending on race and if it is truly run I will do replays on some/most of the horses that I will be backing I have the time to do this so it will pay off more effort hopefully
I did read I needed the standerd times and the lbs per length but wasn't sure if this was right thanks for clearing this up
Also if u could post the template workbook that would be great to Look at
Yes I agree with the average fastest MPH does not necessarily mean this depending on race and if it is truly run I will do replays on some/most of the horses that I will be backing I have the time to do this so it will pay off more effort hopefully
SteveT
Mare
D
damien2009 here is one of the templates and you can find another one here UK All Weather Speed Ratings Template even if you dont use these you can see the formulas that he used so may be of help.He came up with it so you could just copy and paste results into it and it would give you a rating for each horse.
If you read over the thread then things will become clearer on how to use the templates, spend some time looking around the forum as there is a wealth of information within it and studying speed ratings it is i think an essential part to understanding how to go about things some of the pitfalls and techniques to compiling ratings.
Take a look at the approaching speed figures thread and you will see what i mean as he has just started dipping his feet into it and there is some good info that can be gleaned from it.
Cheers
SteveT
If you read over the thread then things will become clearer on how to use the templates, spend some time looking around the forum as there is a wealth of information within it and studying speed ratings it is i think an essential part to understanding how to go about things some of the pitfalls and techniques to compiling ratings.
Take a look at the approaching speed figures thread and you will see what i mean as he has just started dipping his feet into it and there is some good info that can be gleaned from it.
Cheers
SteveT
SteveT
Mare
Looking at Wolverhampton’s 13:35 it seems like Duke of Prussia is the one to beat here winning easily last time by 6L, but on what I have I don’t think it will be as easy as people think and Tommytwohoots could possibly steal it with Camerily Joe being the other contender.
Chelmsford 19:05
May Sonic narrowly beat Aljady (FR) last time they met with the latter being given a lower draw could make the difference between these two also with May Sonics best performances at Kempton and with Nigel Nott being a contender.
Chelmsford 19:35
I have Top Brass looking the best of this bunch with the data I have which is limited to 4 runners over this CD. Luna Wish won here over CD back in April carrying a lot less weight so I doubt it will feature in the first 3 home and I would not be surprised to see Wimpole Hall having an EW chance.
Anyway here is todays cards
Chelmsford 19:05
May Sonic narrowly beat Aljady (FR) last time they met with the latter being given a lower draw could make the difference between these two also with May Sonics best performances at Kempton and with Nigel Nott being a contender.
Chelmsford 19:35
I have Top Brass looking the best of this bunch with the data I have which is limited to 4 runners over this CD. Luna Wish won here over CD back in April carrying a lot less weight so I doubt it will feature in the first 3 home and I would not be surprised to see Wimpole Hall having an EW chance.
Anyway here is todays cards
SteveT
Mare
So here is todays card
17:35 Wolverhampton
Looking at this race I do think that Bellevarde (IRE) could take this one, he is down in class from his last AW race which was here back in March.
He is carrying a little extra weight but I see the jockey’s allowance is taking 7 lbs off this so it may not hinder it too much.
For me Dark Side Prince would be a possible EW bet having never run on this surface before, he has shown a good average speed last time out at Chelmsford. On that form he comes out top on speed, the only other possible for me is Katherine Place who has an EW chance I think.
17:35 Wolverhampton
Looking at this race I do think that Bellevarde (IRE) could take this one, he is down in class from his last AW race which was here back in March.
He is carrying a little extra weight but I see the jockey’s allowance is taking 7 lbs off this so it may not hinder it too much.
For me Dark Side Prince would be a possible EW bet having never run on this surface before, he has shown a good average speed last time out at Chelmsford. On that form he comes out top on speed, the only other possible for me is Katherine Place who has an EW chance I think.
SteveT
Mare
Newcastle 18:25
Looking over this race I think that Copinet could have a good chance of taking this one.
He has a good draw and carrying less weight than on his previous run at Lingfield over the same distance and winning easily by 2 ½ Lgths showing a good average turn of speed.
I don’t have any concerns about the 58 days lay off as she has won before after coming off a longer one and has won 2 of the 3 AW races so far and coming 2nd in the other one.
Centurion Song (IRE) best performances have come from Southwell and his Tapeta performances have not been the best so it could be he prefers the fibresand, his best average speeds have come from Southwell being well clear of the Wolverhampton runs.
I think that Faustus or Saluti (IRE) could possibly have an EW chance here as well.
19.25
French Rain (IRE) will be having its first run on the AW so don’t have any data for this one but has only recorded 1 win on the turf and that was 2 years ago.
Isola Rossa comes out top on average speed but could be outclassed by the likes of Woven who I would not rule out.
Royal Pleasure (IRE) could be the one to beat with 2 wins and 2 places from 4 runs on the AW and I would also not rule out Gavi Di Gavi (IRE)
Looking over this race I think that Copinet could have a good chance of taking this one.
He has a good draw and carrying less weight than on his previous run at Lingfield over the same distance and winning easily by 2 ½ Lgths showing a good average turn of speed.
I don’t have any concerns about the 58 days lay off as she has won before after coming off a longer one and has won 2 of the 3 AW races so far and coming 2nd in the other one.
Centurion Song (IRE) best performances have come from Southwell and his Tapeta performances have not been the best so it could be he prefers the fibresand, his best average speeds have come from Southwell being well clear of the Wolverhampton runs.
I think that Faustus or Saluti (IRE) could possibly have an EW chance here as well.
19.25
French Rain (IRE) will be having its first run on the AW so don’t have any data for this one but has only recorded 1 win on the turf and that was 2 years ago.
Isola Rossa comes out top on average speed but could be outclassed by the likes of Woven who I would not rule out.
Royal Pleasure (IRE) could be the one to beat with 2 wins and 2 places from 4 runs on the AW and I would also not rule out Gavi Di Gavi (IRE)
SteveT
Mare
Chelmsford 14:00
Looking at this I think that Lightening Shore could possibly take this one, and although I have its best speed recorded at Lingfield it is on the same surface so not too concerned by this.
I see that Radetsky (USA) is favourite at the moment but It is up in distance and even though it has a low draw I still think it could be too much of an ask.
I would not rule out Strawberry Jack to figure in the race either and think it has a good EW chance at least, but I don’t have info on half the field so who knows.
15:10
This could end up being a fight between Delagate The Lady and Rockesbury with Rockesbury being drawn low could make all the difference.
Alehandro could take one of the minor places.
Looking at this I think that Lightening Shore could possibly take this one, and although I have its best speed recorded at Lingfield it is on the same surface so not too concerned by this.
I see that Radetsky (USA) is favourite at the moment but It is up in distance and even though it has a low draw I still think it could be too much of an ask.
I would not rule out Strawberry Jack to figure in the race either and think it has a good EW chance at least, but I don’t have info on half the field so who knows.
15:10
This could end up being a fight between Delagate The Lady and Rockesbury with Rockesbury being drawn low could make all the difference.
Alehandro could take one of the minor places.