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Steve's AW Speed Ratings

Delboy99

Mare
Well looks like i forgot to press the post button, but just incase anybody is interested here are the results for yesterday anyway
.... not so bad looks like three winners from four races using the old method =< 10 rnrs and backing the first two top rated. ;)
 
Hi Steve been taking a look over thread something I am interested in myself I have a few questions if u could help out

I have access to race bet data feed so I get daily times but they are betfair finsh times would these work out the same

Do you add weight into your calculations for example just have 9-0 standard time and work around that or do you give each at own merit in sense

wen I have a good data set of speed figures I will post here and we can compare
 

SteveT

Gelding
Hi Steve been taking a look over thread something I am interested in myself I have a few questions if u could help out

I have access to race bet data feed so I get daily times but they are betfair finsh times would these work out the same

Do you add weight into your calculations for example just have 9-0 standard time and work around that or do you give each at own merit in sense

wen I have a good data set of speed figures I will post here and we can compare
Hi D damien2009 to answer your first question, i dont know about betfair finish times but i would imagine they are the same as racing posts. You could double check to see if they are the same, i personally download the results sheets from horse race base and then start from there.
Your second question the simple answer is yes and i also include weight for age (but not the official one).
Hope this helped but feel free to ask, also some excellent threads on here to read which could help you.
cheers
SteveT
 

SteveT

Gelding
Got some time today to put up my thoughts on a couple of races.

13:00 Dundalk
Dandy Spirit (IRE) a CD winner back in November last year and has the same jockey on for this race. My figures show it as having the best speed of all these runners and only carrying 8-11.
These are my ratings over CD 73,61,71,77,76.

Ecclesiastical
ran here back in March and is my second best on speed and recorded 1 win and 2 places from it’s 4 runs here over the same distance also not carrying much weight at 8-12.
My CD Ratings are 63,77,73.64.

Queens Carriage (IRE) has recorded 2 wins here 1 over the same distance and 1 at 6f and also came a close second in a Maiden event here back in October last year.
My CD Ratings are 65,62,46.

Jungle Jane (IRE) personally I don’t think it has the speed to win this race as I have a number of runners that have recorded faster times and looking back over its career so far, I think this one prefers the turf rather than the artificial surface.
My CD Ratings are 71,60,68,53.
All in all if I was a betting man then I think Dandy Spirit would be my choice and worth an EW chance I think.

19:05 Lingfield

I would be surprised to see an outsider taking this one or going close with the likes of Newyorkstateofmind having shown some good form here in the past and comes out top on speed and has Martin Dwyer onboard who has won with this horse before. The ratings I have for this one over CD are 65,75,69.

Total Commitment (IRE)
has come close a number of times here over this distance and I think stands a good chance of taking this one and has shown some good speed here and comes out second on speed.
The ratings I have for this one over CD are 75,72,76,65,73.

Raaeb (IRE) looks like will be the fav for this race, but has only raced here once before over 7f and carrying top weight I can’t see this winning with 3 or 4 faster horses and although comes out top on my ratings this was achieved when it won at Chelmsford on its last AW race.
I only have 1 rating for this over the CD 57



 

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SteveT

Gelding
Yesterdays results,Got it wrong at Dundalk but Newyorkstateofmind was just beaten in the final strides with Total Commitment taking 3rd place ahead of Raaeb.
 

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Delboy99

Mare
Yesterdays results
.... my when I see cards like this. I am so pleased I am not a horsey man and just remotely interested from a systems point of view. Trying to predict how some of these races will finish is like looking for a needle in a haystack. Some of these races have twenty runners, how does one go about trying to say which horse will win? Besides the qualities in each horse it could quite easily account for nothing when it comes to the closing furlongs. If they get boxed in then all predictions really do go out of the window. That is why I think as a systemite, one has to adopt some form of filters to at least give onself a chance by only using races with a set number of runners. Ten comes to mind to at least give yourself half a chance. Most of these cards today resemble The Charge Of The Light Brigade! ;)
 

SteveT

Gelding
Hi Delboy99 Delboy99 yes your right if i was a betting man then i would probably give this meeting a swerve, luckily i only do this for fun really with just the occational bet now and again.
Yesterdays results not the best.
 

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Delboy99

Mare
Hi Delboy99 Delboy99 yes your right if i was a betting man then i would probably give this meeting a swerve, luckily i only do this for fun really with just the occational bet now and again.
Yesterdays results not the best.
.... it is hardly any wonder when you have twenty runners often to contend with! Even doing it for fun is never going to reap great results As it is too much of a lottery. Have you ever tried to keep lists say of 8-10 runners and results of your first two top rated as a comparison? Could be a guideline. ;)
 

The Hare

Filly
.... it is hardly any wonder when you have twenty runners often to contend with! Even doing it for fun is never going to reap great results As it is too much of a lottery. Have you ever tried to keep lists say of 8-10 runners and results of your first two top rated as a comparison? Could be a guideline. ;)
Hello Del

I don't think they are fields of 20 runners. Just a couple of races split into 2 divisions, maximum at Wolverhampton yesterday were 12 runner races. Just the first race was split into Division 1 &2 and the 3rd race was split into Division 1 & 2 as well. Only the turf racing for mega fields. All weather at least has realistic safety limits.

Kevin
 
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