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Steve's AW Speed Ratings

SteveT

Gelding
OK so now we have got the results and cards out of the way let's get on with it.
Firstly Chesham Chesham Thank You for looking in and your leaving comments, i do often think about putting up my thoughts and analasys but end up not doing so just for the simple reason i dont get alot of free time to myself to do that justice or just forget what i was thinking (old age creeping in i think) but between work and both myself and my wife having health issues the day goes so quickly. Some times when i do get the chance to study a card/race i get distracted and before i know it that race i was looking at 4 or 5 hours earlier has already run.
I did at one point start making notes and adding to them so i could just copy and paste them in later but then that would get put on the back burner and forgotten about for one reason or another so just gave up in the end.
I love doing speed ratings and posting them up on here i have found this to be the best forum and the friendliest one i have encountered, i was on another one before finding this site and used to put up my ratings/thoughts/results and ideas up about them and my thread did have more interaction until a mod deleted it by accident (which was fair enough) and i just asked if they could recover it for me and was told in no uncertain terms to F##k off and was banned, i even got abusive emails from the forum owner.
I have had an accidental deletion on this forum in the past and that was sorted within a very short time with no problems at all, but i dont need to tell you how helpful the staff are and i love it here.
As to my thread been a quiet one with little interaction i can understand this as i dont really post a great deal to create the interaction (my own fault really) like you said i am committed to this place and try to post every day when i can but it's not always possible and that bothers me sometimes because i want to, now whether the members use my ratings or not for whatever purpose i dont know but i do like to post them as regular as i can regardless and think they could be helpful for both backing or laying i would think.
Well i think you have just gotten more out of me with one post than i have put up since 2016 :):):).

Cheers
SteveT
 

SteveT

Gelding
SteveT SteveT i know as a compiler myself I can tell your ratings are top draw for the all weather, there are no rogue figures and it all makes sense, if it's not giving away secrets I'm interested, how many runs do you go back ?How long in time do you go back ? Do you use your own standards ?
There is some really good ratings on this site, you can only rate to hopefully capture how fast horse actually ran and I think your ratings do a great job of that .
Hi O Outlander Thank You for the kind words (your a smooth talking devil, i bet the girls loved you :dance2::dance2::dance2:) and i am always looking for improvement in ratings as for giving away secrets here goes the history lesson.
When i first started compiling speed ratings back in 2009 i think it was i began with reading Mordin on time and messing around with those figures for awhile but did'nt have a great deal of success with those so started looking at other ways one was the Bioval method dont know if you have heard of that one before but that was a waiste of time i found unless i was doing them wrong ?.
Then i came up with another idea which was based around the weight of the horse as an estimated figure of a 2yo filly being 950 lbs and 8ft in length 2yo colt 1000lbs and 8ft a 3yo filly 1050lbs 3yo colt 1100lbs and 8.5ft in length a 4yo mare 1250lbs 4yo horse 1300lbs and 9ft then working out how many horse lengths were in a second and using ft per lb and lbs per lgth and work out a stride length and i used a set of class pars. This would give me a little success in getting a horse placed but not many winners so i used that for ew bets only and only from the top 3 rated, i do remember reading something back then that said if you can get consistancy from your top 3 then that should be good enough to look at when studying the horse in it's next race.
I have also used the rail link way to create a set and had help with those and how to come up with my own set of standard times and i took that one step further and broke those down into the different classes for each AW Course, i have only ever done the AW because they are enough to take up my time so decided to concentrate on that area and was told at some point just to pick one aspect of racing and study solely on that and that is what i decided to do, ofcourse i could of taken that another step and settled on the shorter distances 5f upto a mile say.
I found tho that sticking to distances you missed horses that for whatever reason only ran the shorter races now and again so you ended up with figures that were obsolete or at least thats what i found in my case and the older the figure was the less reliable it was so i would end up with a race fully rated but only a couple of those figures were reliable and got a bit fedup with that idea.
I have lost count on the amount of times i have swapped and changed my ideas even since joining this forum i must have change my method 4 or 5 times and i only settled down so to speak when i came across Mikes video on youtube of his method back then which he did say he had also changed during that time yet i found it still to be a good starting point and it helped me alot so alot of the success belongs to him and i would say anybody who is thinking of crossing over to the dark side should seriously study that video.
And so endeth the first lesson lol, i need a cuppa now after replying to you and Chesham but give me half hour and i will get back to actually answering your questions mate.

Cheers
SteveT
 

Chesham

Sire
(y):text-goodpost:@SteveT

My own wife has a life threading illness and spent three continuous months in hospital, so I can empathise with your real lid]fe events. Thankfully my wife has had a better nine months since. Like everyone else trying our best to avoid Covid.

The reason that I suggested posting some meat on the bones, with regards your Ratings , is that on The Blog , we have a dedicated thread on the Blog where the other main Speed Compilers. They collaborate very well together, without the interruption from those who are negative towards the subject.

It would be a good place for you to discuss the complexities that speed Compilers face everyday when trying to rate the race meetings. The Thread has also been able to help them improve the accuracy of their ratings, even though they may use different techniques to arrive at a final rating.

If you can write a little more when you have the time It will give us the chance to get to know you on this thread. You have already had some interaction from O Outlander.

I understand that you may not be able to find enough time and the Blog would not be something that you could commit to, but I thought that I should enquire if we can get to know you better On this Thread first.
 

mick

Sire
Hi SteveT SteveT Speaking as a member who does not pay much attention to SF i felt the need to say i enjoyed reading your above and look forward to the next instalment. One small request some paragraph spacing please. :)
 

SteveT

Gelding
Hi Chesham Chesham
All valid points and understand the reason behind your original post and agree it would benefit me to be a bit more chatty, i do know of the blog and Mike dave and outlanders collaboration together.
We all have our issues in real life and both Sorry and Pleased to hear of your wife i know how stressful it can be for All the family in these challenging times and hope she soon recovers and with luck this Covid thing will improve over the year.
mick mick as they used to say at school must/will try to do better :D and Thank You for looking in and pleased you enjoyed the read and the part 2 will follow shortly.

Cheers
SteveT
 

SteveT

Gelding
SteveT SteveT i know as a compiler myself I can tell your ratings are top draw for the all weather, there are no rogue figures and it all makes sense, if it's not giving away secrets I'm interested, how many runs do you go back ?How long in time do you go back ? Do you use your own standards ?
There is some really good ratings on this site, you can only rate to hopefully capture how fast horse actually ran and I think your ratings do a great job of that .
OK so to try and answer your questions O Outlander
The sheets i put up only have the LTO figure for each horse but i do have my excel database which goes back to Jan 2016 to look back on earlier figures, i did start adding these but doing it manually for each horse took to long filtering then the usual copy and paste going back 6 previous runs if they had them.
This is something i have been looking into to do with VBA as i filter using a macro thats assigned to a button on my sheet but so far i cant get the macro to click on the filter button so it fails but a little more youtubing will throw something up im sure probably an on click event i have to add or something daft like that.
Yes i have my own set of standard times which are static and remember you mentioning before you had yours to update each time you updated your database. I also have another set created with a pivot table and chart that are based on the win times which come out slightly higher and these are based on the data in my sheet and update themselves but to be honest i have not yet looked into trying them out.
I also incorporated your WFA Scale which has worked well (hope you dont mind) so i cant take all the credit lol.

One thing i have learned over the years is that we can only work to averages to produce a set of figures whether that be the race speed, ground covered but i am always searching for improvements.
I dont know about you but i did find my figures being a bit erratic over the past few weeks over the xmas period but they have settled down again now so whether that was due to the weather conditions or not i'm not certain but not ruling anything out with it being artificial surfaces i am dealing with my thinking that frost or very cold temps have an effect on it.
Regarding the speed i do have that in my database for the average MPH each horse ran in as getting off the subject i dont think that in the 12:45 at Southwell today
Ezanak (IRE) Personally i don’t think has the speed for this class and despite Grimsthorpe Castle being 3rd rated in my sheet has the best race speed for this CD over the other contenders so must be in with a chance.
The Favorite Lord of the alps has not raced on this surface before or at this weight but is top rated on my figures only due to his LTO win and having a quick turn around before his mark goes up but for the limited data i have i dont think he will win.

Cheers
SteveT
 

Outlander

Gelding
OK so to try and answer your questions O Outlander
The sheets i put up only have the LTO figure for each horse but i do have my excel database which goes back to Jan 2016 to look back on earlier figures, i did start adding these but doing it manually for each horse took to long filtering then the usual copy and paste going back 6 previous runs if they had them.
This is something i have been looking into to do with VBA as i filter using a macro thats assigned to a button on my sheet but so far i cant get the macro to click on the filter button so it fails but a little more youtubing will throw something up im sure probably an on click event i have to add or something daft like that.
Yes i have my own set of standard times which are static and remember you mentioning before you had yours to update each time you updated your database. I also have another set created with a pivot table and chart that are based on the win times which come out slightly higher and these are based on the data in my sheet and update themselves but to be honest i have not yet looked into trying them out.
I also incorporated your WFA Scale which has worked well (hope you dont mind) so i cant take all the credit lol.

One thing i have learned over the years is that we can only work to averages to produce a set of figures whether that be the race speed, ground covered but i am always searching for improvements.
I dont know about you but i did find my figures being a bit erratic over the past few weeks over the xmas period but they have settled down again now so whether that was due to the weather conditions or not i'm not certain but not ruling anything out with it being artificial surfaces i am dealing with my thinking that frost or very cold temps have an effect on it.
Regarding the speed i do have that in my database for the average MPH each horse ran in as getting off the subject i dont think that in the 12:45 at Southwell today
Ezanak (IRE) Personally i don’t think has the speed for this class and despite Grimsthorpe Castle being 3rd rated in my sheet has the best race speed for this CD over the other contenders so must be in with a chance.
The Favorite Lord of the alps has not raced on this surface before or at this weight but is top rated on my figures only due to his LTO win and having a quick turn around before his mark goes up but for the limited data i have i dont think he will win.

Cheers
SteveT
SteveT SteveT you obviously have good excel skills I remember from when you put advanced filters on my AW template, you shouldn’t have to do anything manually if you link up your ratings file with the daily runners file in an access database for example and run a tailored query to extract all the runs for today’s runners. I have very limited skills but taught myself. Maybe I could help if you are unsure.
 

SteveT

Gelding
Hi O Outlander Sorry for the late reply
Thats Great Thank You very much, i have been trying to do something like that but not having any success with it as access stops responding when i try to link upto my ratings data.
The file has about 130k rows and 84mb in size even if i connect to the file and leave it 10 or 15 mins to give it time to get all the data there is no change but i am still going to keep trying and maybe we can sort it out together as like you i am self taught.

cheers
SteveT
 

Outlander

Gelding
Hi O Outlander Sorry for the late reply
Thats Great Thank You very much, i have been trying to do something like that but not having any success with it as access stops responding when i try to link upto my ratings data.
The file has about 130k rows and 84mb in size even if i connect to the file and leave it 10 or 15 mins to give it time to get all the data there is no change but i am still going to keep trying and maybe we can sort it out together as like you i am self taught.

cheers
SteveT
Will try and help in stages when I have time.
First make a copy of what you already have so your current modus operandi can continue.
Next advice would be to split your excel files into into separate files for each of the courses.
Name them after the courses.SOUTHWELL(AW), DUNDALK(AW) ...etc .
Put them in a separate folder on your desktop, Name the folder
Open a new blank access database.
On the ribbon click EXTERNAL DATA
Then in the Import & Link section click Excel (icon of a spreadsheet with green arrow bending upwards )
A new window opens
Browse to your new folder on your desktop and double click on you first course file example CHELMSFORD(AW)
Then click to highlight the option at the bottom Link to data source by creating a linked table.
Click OK
New window opens , check it is showing data from the worksheet you want to import and click Next
New window is opening make sure First Row Contains Column Headings box is ticked...Press Next
New Window Opens enter a Linked Table Name like CHLM ...click Finish

CHLM now appears in the Tables Menu on the left hand side

Repeat this step for all courses.

Open up a blank excel file on your desktop
Name it TODAYS RUNNERS
Each day you will copy and paste your daily runners file into this file, make sure all the columns have relevant headings.
Now link the TODAYS RUNNERS excel file into access exactly the same way as you did for each individual course.

Back later with the next step creating a union query to bring all you course files back together in Access.
Sorry if I have dumbed it SteveT SteveT , I don’t know your level of Access knowledge .
 
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Outlander

Gelding
Next stage setting up the code for union query
attached is a notepad text file as an example how to set it up
Open the attachment and amend it to suit your own data
Make sure the course abbreviations are identical to the ones used when naming our tables when we were linking them, from the example in previous post I used CHLM for Chelmsford
In the square brackets [ ] are all the fields from our excel course files that we might need to extract
Obviously this attachment is tailored to my personal files, your headings will be different, you need to tailor the notepad attachment values in the square brackets to match headings in your own files.
The bit at the bottom ORDER BY you need to put one of your own headings in the square brackets
 

Attachments

  • union query setup.txt
    1.5 KB · Views: 4
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Outlander

Gelding
Once you have tailored the code in the notepad attachment to your own headings, it is ready to paste the code into a union query in our Access database
On the Access ribbon click CREATE.... IN THE Queries section click the Query Design
A Show Table window will pop up...shut this box down we don’t need it at the stage
In the menu at the top click Union it has a little interlocking circles icon to the left of the word Union
Copy and Paste the code you have amended in the notepad attachment I sent
click the close X
when it ask if you want to save changes to query design...click Yes
it will then ask you to name the query ...name it AWUNION..Click OK

Your new Union Query will now appear in the menu on the left hand side under the Queries heading below you Tables we did earlier
 

Outlander

Gelding
We then need to create a Normal Query to link the AWUNION Query we just created to the TODAYS RUNNERS Table we created earlier.
We will link these 2 with a common field such as the horses name.
If the data in your excel files comes from HRB then it is best your data for the TODAYS RUNNERS Table also comes from HRB, different publishers of data have different ways of dealing with commas and (GB) after the names etc and it can get messy linking from different sources.
If you know how to do this great, if not will try to guide you through this when I get more time again
 

Outlander

Gelding
On the Access ribbon click CREATE
Then in Queries section click Query Design icon
A window headed Show Table will pop up
3 tabs on that table click the Both tab
You will see a list of your Tables and Queries
Double click on TODAYS RUNNERS Table from this list it will appear in the design space with all fields available in that table.
Double click on AWUNION Query from this same list it will appear in the design space with all fields available in that Query.
Re-size the 2 boxes that appear in the design space so you can see as much of the available fields as possible, you can scroll if needed.
now link the field that contain the horses name in the TODAYS RUNNERS Table with the field that contains the horses name in the AWUNION Query .
To link them left click mouse and hold down and drag from Horse Name field in TODAYS RUNNERS Table to Horse Name field in AWUNION Query.
It will show a line linking theses fields if you have done it correctly.
Now double click every field in these 2 boxes in the design Space that you want to extract for your final sheet, and you will see them appear in the boxes below.
Once you have all the fields you need then close off the Query design by clicking X
Save you Query when prompted and Name your Query when prompted call it AWRATINGS for example.
Wait for it to save your Query
Shut down you Access database
Open it back up
Locate your AWRATINGS Query in the left hand menu under the Queries heading
Right Click on this and Select Open
This will then run your Query and Display all ratings for todays runners with all the fields you have requested.
Once loaded Highlight all the Data and copy and paste it into an Excel sheet , add a few formulas to new columns to calculate adjustments for todays weight etc ( make sure you have a weight field in your TODAYS RUNNERS Table)
And that's it, full database to drag all the data you need.

Forgot to mention you just update you normal excel files on your desktop with new results and todays runners, and it automaticaly updates your Access Database
 
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Outlander

Gelding
SteveT SteveT if you want to adjust for WFA (my scale)
Then you can get todays runners from HRB Daily Tools section > Todays Cards & Analysis download the excel file.
Then Copy and paste the data into the attached file
The attached File has a few extra columns at the end that calculates my WFA( you said you had adopted this)
Obviously if you use this attachment as your TODAYS RUNNERS file you will need the select the wfa field when you are creating the AWRATINGS Query , this will then mean you have todays weight for age available to add back on to any final adjusted ratings.
 

Attachments

  • TODAYS RUNNERS.xlsx
    450.5 KB · Views: 5
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