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Stats based Guesses

mick said:
Its an aspect i have been investigating for the past couple of years specifically when applied to young apprentice riders. I source the info from the BHA and RP ( who sometimes disagree) and yes the best which can be gleaned is lowest riding weight during the past year. I tend to feel negative when this equates to a stone or more DW involved. Tbh i have yet to draw any firm conclusions because when i implemented this last year it helped me swerve a few losers but also cost me a couple of good winners.

So as matters stand the jury is still out. What i do know is that if i owned one who would be running serious brakes off if it had 9-10 i would not be putting up a natural light weight apprentice but would feel interested in using a heavy one. :)
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Interesting idea mick mick , and tbh it wasn’t something I had thought of, but it’s worth investigating.
 
doomster said:
My biggest question re Apprentice claims is how do we assess a claimer riding for their an outside stable ?

There must be the occasional occurrence were these claimers are simply gaining experience and are expected to retain their claim for the retained stable.
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An important question with no easy answers. Given the above i look at what previous use the outside stable has made of apprentice riders. I also suspect there is "cooperation" between some trainers which we never get to hear about.? For myself its always first find the horse of interest and if it happens to be claimer ridden then there are often tells positive or otherwise which need to be balanced. ?
 
Southwell 5.15pm Mr Strutter 12/1

Mr Strutter returns to action following a stable switch and an absence of 137 Days. Lets start with the absence first. His last victory came after a 139 day break and he has 2 wins following day breaks of just over 50 days as well so I think its safe to say the horse benefits from being freshened up. Now the stable switch D H Brown has a strike rate of 11% (4 from 35) in handicaps where the last run was for a different stable and hasn't run for this trainer in the past. However that stat is slightly tempered by his last winner with these limits came in 2017. If you count non handicaps then National Anthem won in January 2020. The stat ends up being 13% (7 from 54) . Finally if you add in Last run over 100 days you get a healthy 19% Strike Rate (6 from 31).
Mr Strutter is a previous Course winner and has won over 8.5f at Wolves. His last winning mark was 58 (wolves). Here he tries off 59. It maybe that Brown might need to get Mr Strutter's mark down before winning but this looks like a significant trainer upgrade to me. (Thompson Strike rate 5-3 and 6 % last 3 years vs brown 22,10 and 6%)
 
Emptymind Emptymind Re Strutter looking at the current market i note you have secured some excellent value which could be seen as half the job, so whatever the outcome well done with that.
 
mick said:
Emptymind Emptymind Re Strutter looking at the current market i note you have secured some excellent value which could be seen as half the job, so whatever the outcome well done with that.
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Most of them dont stick mick mick come the morning. Sadly this one is back on its way out. Hopefully it doesn't drift too much.
 
Lomu 15/2 WH (shortening was 8's) Newc 7.40pm

Looks a bit big and i doubt anyone will go bigger this evening. Lomu just needs to repeat what it did last victory over CD when he appeared to enjoy racing on his own drawn on the far-side of the track under Morris. True he lost when unable to dominate next time at the track (tough 0-100) but this time he should be able to get an easy lead with the same low draw with little pace around him and can dominate again. LTO he got sandwiched after a poor break and all hope was gone as he didn't settle despite Mcdonalds urging. Even so he still ran on closing not beaten that far considering what he lost at the start.

Not sure whether he likes the surface from the top or bottom of his pedigree as both are good statistically. I have the sire with a 16% strike rate over CD and the Dams offspring with a 33% strike rate on the surface 24% at the distance. But I think he enjoys space around him and should get it tomorrow night.
 
Paddyplex 16/1 e/w Wolves 5.40pm Today.

I sense a gamble coming so will have to be quick. Dalgleish got 2 wins out of this one early. Paddy has switched back to the stable and has struggled particularly last twice. However he won after a break and he might come back refreshed with Dalgleish having a couple of wins at Newcastle recently there's reasons to be optomistic.
 
Emptymind Emptymind although only 8 run i think your Newc 7.40 is an interesting race. I was unable to sort it Re having a bet and best of for your pick. I liked your reasoning as to why his low draw might be a positive.
 
Emptymind said:
Lomu 15/2 WH (shortening was 8's) Newc 7.40pm

Looks a bit big and i doubt anyone will go bigger this evening. Lomu just needs to repeat what it did last victory over CD when he appeared to enjoy racing on his own drawn on the far-side of the track under Morris. True he lost when unable to dominate next time at the track (tough 0-100) but this time he should be able to get an easy lead with the same low draw with little pace around him and can dominate again. LTO he got sandwiched after a poor break and all hope was gone as he didn't settle despite Mcdonalds urging. Even so he still ran on closing not beaten that far considering what he lost at the start.

Not sure whether he likes the surface from the top or bottom of his pedigree as both are good statistically. I have the sire with a 16% strike rate over CD and the Dams offspring with a 33% strike rate on the surface 24% at the distance. But I think he enjoys space around him and should get it tomorrow night.
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All hope lost as soon as it wasn't allowed to lead. Very rare that Morris lets me down with tactics. Difficult Night for me at Newcastle.
 
I was going to put up Dream Magic Lingfield 20/1 but there appears to be little point now following a huge punt on French Minstrel 33/1 -- 100/30 who had Callum Shepherd on top for the first time has blinkers on and is stepped up to 12f for the first time on its fifth start. So far it has been beaten a combined total of 64 lengths in 4 starts showing zip all.

The thrice raced dam of French Minstrel won on its second start for Gosden over 6f on the turf in a class 4. One of her half brothers Emperor Hadrian won won over 6f in Ireland on its 4th start then going on to compete at group level for Aiden O'Brien. The only stayer i can find of note is another half brother (Pierre Dor edit Arts guild) of the Dam who came 2nd (beaten 1.5L) over CD off a mark of 75 for W Musson back in October 2008. Anyhow little point in discusing Dream Magics chances for win purposes now.

For those who like e/w accas like me Dream Magic might be able to fill one of the places behind French Minstrel under the claimer Elisha Whittington. Dreams course form reads 2nd-2nd-Last-1st-1st-2nd -fifth. The latest effort fifth can be excused by the lack of pace in the race where Richard Kingscote ended up leading when he didnt want to looking at the tape. After that race Elisha won a claimer on Dream at Wolves. Dream then struggled in a class 5 at Wolves again under Kingscote and now drops back into a class 6. I thought Dream should be around a 10/1 chance but now with this Gamble 20/1 is about right i guess.
 
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mick said:
Emptymind Emptymind i had not looked at your above race but your post has certainly provoked some interest. :)
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I love these gambles Mick always makes the race in question interesting. I remember being on the right side of one another 33/1 shot that got smashed into 11/4 then ran like a pig. PP didn't like it though effectively closing my account by limiting me to 50p bets after that
 
Another r
mick said:
Emptymind Emptymind i can well empathise Re your above but its a lose - lose all round for us backers now. I lost my personal Ladbrokes account straight after a winner i had backed with them @ 9/2 bog returned a 7/1 sp. !
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Will have to learn how to gamble on the stock market apparently thats an ok form of gambling. Even the New scientist are getting in on the act of putting us punters down saying its detrimental to our health in a recent article.
 
Talking of interesting races the 4.30pm race at Dundalk could be a blast. Alhaajjaj won it last year with an interesting run style. At one point it was 20 lengths clear and still held on. Its gonna struggle this time being way out of the handicap. However i cant resist a little back to lay approach tonight. (Heads up to one of my punting buddies for reminding me of this -Cheers Tony).
 
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Emptymind said:
Will have to learn how to gamble on the stock market apparently thats an ok form of gambling. Even the New scientist are getting in on the act of putting us punters down saying its detrimental to our health in a recent article.
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I often recall something said 45yrs ago in a racing book by Paul Major. He described the then London Stock Exchange as being the biggest betting shop in the world. The City boys gamble with our money and are respected by some, while the ignorant tend to generalize all horse race bettors as degenerate gamblers. I gave up long ago attempting to explain the difference. !
 
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