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Stats based Guesses

I've mugged myself into backing Lammas, even with the draw concern.

Trainer suddenly got FTO winners last year who were all C2 types.

I'd still be hopeful of some improvement fron the 2TO 4yo and no extra weight to carry here being a 4yo+ novice


doomster doomster I have been looking at system's since around December - have to say through a very cynical eye - but I can now see blue sky ahead - the problem I have, is the stats and how to value ones use against the others - but now alighted on the most relevant one's to me at least - bearing in mind the ups and downs that can befall any horse and jockey in running - stable health etc - I think you need to have plenty of margin on side and some further rules (that cannot as yet be applied by the data bases) before diving in

System creation parameters

No 1 has to ROI BF - want 30% min - No 2. SR want to 18% min

Further some on the day pre backing checks

Beware of races with multiple trainer runners - Draw Iv and Pace of race - WS need a check - Finally but most important - is Min Price

Your above I assume these Figs are backing all blind


A Mullins system would be great at Clonmel - Belestown - Tipperary - Promising at Galway Limmerick Roscommon

I would need to looks at months and various other stuff but there is clearly something to work with


As highlighted earlier in this thread Lee and Burke are doing rather well together of late. 4 winners from 8 entries (edit- this month) (this horse was third last night at Newcastle in those stats). Whether Tarnemmat 18/1 Runs isnt certain but ive stuck a few quid on him in case he does Southwell 1.15pm.

Clifford rides swell here 19/81 (23%) behind only Fentiman 24%
View attachment 95832

Emptymind Emptymind one way you can narrow the field is like this using HRB.

Southwell - K Burke - L Clifford - Age 4 - H Run (career) Between 5 and 8 - Date (quarter) Quarter 1- Weight 9-1 to 9-7

The results show 5/5 - PL 16.26 - AE 3.47 - CHI 12.36

Noticeably, all 5 winners were in h'caps and three of the winners were recorded in January.

HRB is a fantastic tool as well is the knowledge on this site.



I wrote down in my notes that Near Kettering trained by Jonathan England was subject to a successful big gamble. I didnt write the date or the odds change. I'm assuming that it was the win at Thirsk and not the win over jumps a couple of weeks later. The win at Thirsk came under the jockeyship of Cameron Hardie. Today Lanval goes for the pair in the 3.20 at Southwell. Lanvel is a Switcher from the D Mensuier stable its had three runs on the flat for David and one run for Jonathan over the sticks. This 2nd attempt for England comes on the aw surface at Southwell. The Dam Flamingo Sea has produced 7 other siblings. They've all won a race apart from one and even that one has managed 6 places from 8 rides. One sibling has won at this track. No others have raced here. The full brother Chesapeake Shores won at Killarney and got a rating of 72 on its third start. Lanval has good stats on both top and bottom (American) for Southwell. Its wearing first time pieces and tongue tie which suggest this might not just be a day out. Lanval would be interesting if we saw some cash. The exchanges are currently trading around 80s but it could go any price
Bet- A few highly speculative quid on Lanval Southwell 3.20pm

Dams Record --