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Stats based Guesses

Emptymind

Emptymind

Filly
Ben Haslam has only ever had 6 runners at Chelmsford. The one winner (ran again here and flopped) was entered in this type of contest. In fact 4 runners were in these types of contests. Namely stakes races over 1m5.5f. The Winner Calevade won a race with an average Official Rating of 47. Todays 7.30pm has an average official rating of 46. Coincidence? who knows. It should be said that 3 others flopped in similar/same races. (4 runners consisted of duel entries twice)

Guess: Phoenix Strike 40/1 e/w Sky Bet. NR
 
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Ex Olympiad Mark Todd has been a trainer in New Zealand for a while. Now the Kiwi Equestrian elitist has come over to our gaff. Things haven't been going too well so far for him a meager 2 winners in the last year. Hugh Taylor readers will know that Todd had a winner the other day though. The particular stat Hugh picked out was his previous winner had been running over lets say too short a trip namely 7f. The first winner won on its second attempt at 10f. Hugh's pick won first time stepped up from 7f to 10f.
Toddy boy has a runner today. Also at Chelmsford in the 4.55pm -My Footsteps. However this one hasn't been stepped up and has its third run over 7f for the cheeky Kiwi. My Footsteps will be watched with interest today by these eyes.
Just a quick thank you to Hugh for his continued education of the masses as his column intends. Its not atall there to crash the prices of horses we already fancied but can no longer get on at a decent price.
No Bet My Footsteps- but watch-out next time. LOL it Wins - Put this in the bin.
I guess we can watch out for the Mark Todd stable now with 2 winners in 2 days.
 
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What have the betting public got against Glan Y Gors? - Today sees the return of the horse to its favourite track.

Lets look at the bare stats - 15 Runs - 4 Victories 3 seconds 8 unplaced.
Winning odds - 12, 6.5, 7.5 and 17 Coupled with 2nd place odds - 7, 4, and 21.
Looking at those numbers you can see its hardly ever bet. So where does this blind spot come from.
Its name: In the old days of booking shop pens and last minute lunch hour rush bets, you can see why punters might prefer something easier to write down but not in today's times.
The colours- Predominantly Orange - Do the betting public have an adversity to the colour orange?

Not something that's easy to analyse.

Whatever the reason you can be fairly confident that Glan Y Gors will go off unbacked today. Okay on the face of it maybe today isn't the best time to part with the hard earned anyhow. The last three runs look poor. 5/8 7/8 and 6/6 takes some swallowing.
Newcastle Form:
Last run 5th of 8 in a 0-87.
7th of 8 in a in a 0-89
6th of 6 in a 0-93.

Lets compare that with last three wins here:

1st of 7 in a 0-71 (off 69)
1st of 6 in a 0-85 (off 74)
1st of 12 in a 0-80 (off 71)


Today hes in a 0-74 off 73.

(Busy Street has just been declared a non runner.)

The trip is a negative on the flat just the 1 win further than 12.5f. (13-1-4-0) but he did manage a 2nd here at this trip in a class 2 event.

Glen has done me a few favours in the past so i will be giving him another go at BFSP.
 
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More contradictory work to follow. Well in truth as ever its weighing up the positives and negatives. I've had some success following Herrington horses at Newcastle. For some reason i haven't followed his at Wolverhampton. I did a bit of digging a while back and came up with this stat.
Wins 32% of grade 6 Handicaps wolves- 5f to 9.5f from 2018 onwards. (figures since i did that that 13-0-5). The reason I mention this as I've just checked Herrington distance wise at Newcastle - and hes another trainer who's had no winners from further than a mile at the track. ( I've put up a Waggot horse who has the same stat on another thread). Anyhow that rambling gives me the main negative about Archippos in the 1.40pm .

On to the positive. Came 2nd in a Class 6 event like here over CD off a mark off 56. (0-72). Then runs here in a class 5 and bombs. 2 runs at Southwell bombs in both. Now back here off 51 in a 0-62. Will back it if i see some blue on oddschecker will update if i do so. Otherwise BFSP as well.
 
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I've had a very small bet on Passing Nod 16:00 Lin, a switcher to Henry Spiller (25%) with a new apprentice on board with 3 winners from 8 rides and 3 from his last 4, inc the last one for John Gosden. PN wears a FT TT and drops back in trip. Not a stand-out price at 7/1 TBH, but what can you do! HS has had a switcher winner with FT TT before.
 
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Royal Cosmic is 2 from 2 at about this distance in class 6 races. 5 of his 7 wins have occurred when hes had a claimer on. 5/23(22%) off 2/20(10%) If I can count. Royal Cosmic has been running over sticks lately. This CD winner loves this distance. Its anyone's guess if hes fit. I'm hoping the the claimer being on is a clue. As for betting Hes opened up 12/1 with Hills. That's a decent price I think. However i cant get on. ... But if i have a double they let me have 20 quid on. So I've done this -Royal Cosmic doubled with a footy bet ( ive gone for Burnley Double chance home to villa 4/5). I only write this here to help people get on with Hills if you haven't realised they allow you doubles (to 20 quid in my case).
I should have added its had a wind opp 2nd run after. No idea if that will help.

Royal Cosmic 12/1 Newc 3.40pm Thurs
 
I’m fascinated to see how Vivency gets on in the 5.15pm Tonight at Kempton. She finished 2nd carrying a monster weight where it split Melody of Life(1st) and the 73 rated Loyal Havana Over Tonight CD Both carried 13lb less than Vivency indeed the whole field carried less weight than her as she was the only 4 yr old in the race. The handicapper gave her a mark of 70 for that performance. On paper you can see why she goes off Fav but her time wasn’t that great. Sure she’s going to improve being her 4th only start tonight but I think she needs to. I prefer to go down a different route using the the ever reliable sire Delegator who loves this track. Well Chloellie has already shown her liking for the track a multiple winner here.

So what’s the stat you all ask? And I say it’s the Jockey/Horse stat. 8 goes 4 wins and 2 seconds at the track which ain’t too shabby. Chloellie has been competing amongst the boys on her last 2 starts so this switch to females only should help. However its her love for this track that makes her backable around 11s on the exchanges.
A note - on the same night 30 mins apart 18th/Sept/2020 Chloellie covered the Cd in 85.67. Kodellian winnng a separate heat did it in 85.70. Chloellie carried more weight. Does that matter? If you think not can you explain why? It’s counter intuitive a bit like gravity. Ok so what’s 8lb on a 1100lb animal. In that case explain why do trainers bother to book apprentices then? Tonight’s contest will shed some light on this debate at least.

Bet Chloellie around 11s on the exchanges 5.15pm. Rev exacta Chloellie/Kodiellen.

Incidentally Vivency did it 87.89 which looks slow to me. Maybe TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother can give more context to that performance. Or maybe he’s got something better to do than read my utterings.
 
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Emptymind Emptymind perhaps a case of little things pleasing little minds but i found your Southw 4.30 a 6 run 0-75 apprentice Hcap a very interesting race even though i concluded no bet for myself. I am hoping for a more positive outcome on Fri under simular circumstances in the Newc 4.45 where i have made a case of sorts for backing Strawberry Jack although i will need better than the current WH 11/2 to enable.

We seldom see much forum interest in these apprentice races but personally i like them. PS : Best of for Paris. :)
 
mick mick Regards Strawberry Jack, Its good to see both Jack and his siblings have won on straight tracks. Unfuwain the Damsire does well here also. Eton College didnt appear to enjoy it here. Couple above there winning marks too. I Hope you get your price.
 
Emptymind said:
mick mick Regards Strawberry Jack, Its good to see both Jack and his siblings have won on straight tracks. Unfuwain the Damsire does well here also. Eton College didnt appear to enjoy it here. Couple above there winning marks too. I Hope you get your price.
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Indeed and his very decent 4lto over 8 fur at Newm played a part in this respect. Anyway the work is done so pricewise now a wait and see job. Incidentally i have just been reading the rest of this thread and your sharing some interesting thinking, well done. :clap:
 
Archelinos Arc Lingfield 4pm 20/1 Drifting

Got a few I like today so i will keep the write ups short. The stat is Arcanos are 80% in distances beyond 12f at the track in handicaps since 2016.
Ok thats a small sample size and includes this horse. But 4 from 5 have won.

Just writing these for my own sanity. Ran ok in 4th - a couple of lively ones in this race dont give up.
 
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Red Right Sand Lingfield 2.16pm 11/1 getting backed

Dont even know what the stat is but ive noticed Burke and Lee being going really well together of late. Lets check. Not that great 3/17 but decent, right track Sire 19% CD, 2nd run after break

just writing this for my own sanity. The stat worked in the 1.11pm Burke/Lee - won a listed event at 20/1. This one ran ok
 
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Chloellie 8pm Kempton -see previous write up on this thread.

Was a miserable non existent performance LTO. D Probert just didn't bother. I think he made no effort because of the draw. Well that combined with the lack of pace. Chloellie gets a good draw here. Pace doesn't look quick enough but cant have everything.
Currently 18/1. There was money in the afternoon and before the off LTO.


Just writing this for my own sanity. Went off 5/1 so clearly fancied by somebody. So my thinking is it can win very soon. I want a bigger field so it has more chance of a fast pace. Pace strong forecast in ATR or I can see a fast pace scenario.
 
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Crimson King 7.30pm Kempton 14/1

Down to its winning mark with the claim. Speaking of the claim thats the stat. When Appleby has come to Kempton and used a 5 to 7lb claimer over the past couple of years 5 have won from 20 with a further 7 placing. (In handicaps)

Just writing this for my own sanity Reared badly in stalls - finished 4th No money for it went off 18/1 - again i cant give up on it.
 
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Wolverhampton 4.30pm Rockesbury 11/2

This will take some explaining, bare with me. Rockesbury came 2nd LTO to a horse that was/is rapidly improving. Its possible to compare the times of quite a few here over this CD.
The improver in question is Elderbar who found everything clicked when winning in a time of 88.63 (last 3F in 36.39)Class 6
Rockesbury 2nd beaten 2L 88.98 (Last 3F in 37.01) Class 6
Eledebar then went on to win again up in class (class5) 88.31 (35.63)
On the same day that Rockesbury came 2nd to Elderbar Everkyllachy came 2nd over CD 30 mins later - (89.75 (last 3f in 36.57) Class 6
In Third was London (opponent today) times 90.11 Last 3F 37.75

So in what must have been nearly identical conditions Rockesbury was faster by 0.77sec overall and slower by 0.44sec in the last 3F.
This makes sense as Rockesbury is a front runner and Kyllachy a closer.
Today Rockesbury should get an easy lead - Possible challanger The Kings stead? ( that ones interesting on weight on previous clash 2019)
Well in short I expect Rockesbury to hold on. Ive gone through other overall/times and sectionals (of the rest of the field who have recorded a time over CD) and I get that run by Rockesbury the best.
I'm sure that is as clear as mud.
Everkyllachy and london are the front 2 in the market today with Rockesbury a point and a half bigger
 
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Emptymind Emptymind Re your above your explanation is well presented and understandable and i speak as one who has limited knowledge of best use from race times. Rockesbury was also my only horse of interest today showing @ +1 off my form based ratings, but having spent a long time looking at his profile and attempting to balance what is there i have decided to swerve and this is less easy to explain in an un muddled way.

In this instance the best i can offer is that while i accept the chance is sound, i was left feeling uneasy on balance for reasons which i cannot really identify and his price does not justify betting against these feelings. Having said that i will be well pleased to be proved wrong and see him win for you. :) PS : Imo you are creating a good thread here with some interesting thoughts being shared.
 
mick said:
Emptymind Emptymind Re your above your explanation is well presented and understandable and i speak as one who has limited knowledge of best use from race times. Rockesbury was also my only horse of interest today showing @ +1 off my form based ratings, but having spent a long time looking at his profile and attempting to balance what is there i have decided to swerve and this is less easy to explain in an un muddled way.

In this instance the best i can offer is that while i accept the chance is sound, i was left feeling uneasy on balance for reasons which i cannot really identify and his price does not justify betting against these feelings. Having said that i will be well pleased to be proved wrong and see him win for you. :) PS : Imo you are creating a good thread here with some interesting thoughts being shared.
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I'm out of form and everything I pick Im doing with no confidence. My gut says no but its saying no to everything currently. Thank you for the kind comments.
 
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