• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR

Stats based Guesses

Emptymind

Yearling
Ben Haslam has only ever had 6 runners at Chelmsford. The one winner (ran again here and flopped) was entered in this type of contest. In fact 4 runners were in these types of contests. Namely stakes races over 1m5.5f. The Winner Calevade won a race with an average Official Rating of 47. Todays 7.30pm has an average official rating of 46. Coincidence? who knows. It should be said that 3 others flopped in similar/same races. (4 runners consisted of duel entries twice)

Guess:
Phoenix Strike 40/1 e/w Sky Bet. NR
 
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Emptymind

Yearling
Ex Olympiad Mark Todd has been a trainer in New Zealand for a while. Now the Kiwi Equestrian elitist has come over to our gaff. Things haven't been going too well so far for him a meager 2 winners in the last year. Hugh Taylor readers will know that Todd had a winner the other day though. The particular stat Hugh picked out was his previous winner had been running over lets say too short a trip namely 7f. The first winner won on its second attempt at 10f. Hugh's pick won first time stepped up from 7f to 10f.
Toddy boy has a runner today. Also at Chelmsford in the 4.55pm -My Footsteps. However this one hasn't been stepped up and has its third run over 7f for the cheeky Kiwi. My Footsteps will be watched with interest today by these eyes.
Just a quick thank you to Hugh for his continued education of the masses as his column intends. Its not atall there to crash the prices of horses we already fancied but can no longer get on at a decent price.
No Bet My Footsteps- but watch-out next time. LOL it Wins - Put this in the bin.
I guess we can watch out for the Mark Todd stable now with 2 winners in 2 days.
 
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Emptymind

Yearling
What have the betting public got against Glan Y Gors? - Today sees the return of the horse to its favourite track.

Lets look at the bare stats - 15 Runs - 4 Victories 3 seconds 8 unplaced.
Winning odds - 12, 6.5, 7.5 and 17 Coupled with 2nd place odds - 7, 4, and 21.
Looking at those numbers you can see its hardly ever bet. So where does this blind spot come from.
Its name: In the old days of booking shop pens and last minute lunch hour rush bets, you can see why punters might prefer something easier to write down but not in today's times.
The colours- Predominantly Orange - Do the betting public have an adversity to the colour orange?

Not something that's easy to analyse.

Whatever the reason you can be fairly confident that Glan Y Gors will go off unbacked today. Okay on the face of it maybe today isn't the best time to part with the hard earned anyhow. The last three runs look poor. 5/8 7/8 and 6/6 takes some swallowing.
Newcastle Form:
Last run 5th of 8 in a 0-87.
7th of 8 in a in a 0-89
6th of 6 in a 0-93.

Lets compare that with last three wins here:

1st of 7 in a 0-71 (off 69)
1st of 6 in a 0-85 (off 74)
1st of 12 in a 0-80 (off 71)


Today hes in a 0-74 off 73.

(Busy Street has just been declared a non runner.)

The trip is a negative on the flat just the 1 win further than 12.5f. (13-1-4-0) but he did manage a 2nd here at this trip in a class 2 event.

Glen has done me a few favours in the past so i will be giving him another go at BFSP.
 
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Emptymind

Yearling
More contradictory work to follow. Well in truth as ever its weighing up the positives and negatives. I've had some success following Herrington horses at Newcastle. For some reason i haven't followed his at Wolverhampton. I did a bit of digging a while back and came up with this stat.
Wins 32% of grade 6 Handicaps wolves- 5f to 9.5f from 2018 onwards. (figures since i did that that 13-0-5). The reason I mention this as I've just checked Herrington distance wise at Newcastle - and hes another trainer who's had no winners from further than a mile at the track. ( I've put up a Waggot horse who has the same stat on another thread). Anyhow that rambling gives me the main negative about Archippos in the 1.40pm .

On to the positive. Came 2nd in a Class 6 event like here over CD off a mark off 56. (0-72). Then runs here in a class 5 and bombs. 2 runs at Southwell bombs in both. Now back here off 51 in a 0-62. Will back it if i see some blue on oddschecker will update if i do so. Otherwise BFSP as well.
 
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