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Stats based Guesses


Ben Haslam has only ever had 6 runners at Chelmsford. The one winner (ran again here and flopped) was entered in this type of contest. In fact 4 runners were in these types of contests. Namely stakes races over 1m5.5f. The Winner Calevade won a race with an average Official Rating of 47. Todays 7.30pm has an average official rating of 46. Coincidence? who knows. It should be said that 3 others flopped in similar/same races. (4 runners consisted of duel entries twice)

Phoenix Strike 40/1 e/w Sky Bet. NR
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Ex Olympiad Mark Todd has been a trainer in New Zealand for a while. Now the Kiwi Equestrian elitist has come over to our gaff. Things haven't been going too well so far for him a meager 2 winners in the last year. Hugh Taylor readers will know that Todd had a winner the other day though. The particular stat Hugh picked out was his previous winner had been running over lets say too short a trip namely 7f. The first winner won on its second attempt at 10f. Hugh's pick won first time stepped up from 7f to 10f.
Toddy boy has a runner today. Also at Chelmsford in the 4.55pm -My Footsteps. However this one hasn't been stepped up and has its third run over 7f for the cheeky Kiwi. My Footsteps will be watched with interest today by these eyes.
Just a quick thank you to Hugh for his continued education of the masses as his column intends. Its not atall there to crash the prices of horses we already fancied but can no longer get on at a decent price.
No Bet My Footsteps- but watch-out next time. LOL it Wins - Put this in the bin.
I guess we can watch out for the Mark Todd stable now with 2 winners in 2 days.
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What have the betting public got against Glan Y Gors? - Today sees the return of the horse to its favourite track.

Lets look at the bare stats - 15 Runs - 4 Victories 3 seconds 8 unplaced.
Winning odds - 12, 6.5, 7.5 and 17 Coupled with 2nd place odds - 7, 4, and 21.
Looking at those numbers you can see its hardly ever bet. So where does this blind spot come from.
Its name: In the old days of booking shop pens and last minute lunch hour rush bets, you can see why punters might prefer something easier to write down but not in today's times.
The colours- Predominantly Orange - Do the betting public have an adversity to the colour orange?

Not something that's easy to analyse.

Whatever the reason you can be fairly confident that Glan Y Gors will go off unbacked today. Okay on the face of it maybe today isn't the best time to part with the hard earned anyhow. The last three runs look poor. 5/8 7/8 and 6/6 takes some swallowing.
Newcastle Form:
Last run 5th of 8 in a 0-87.
7th of 8 in a in a 0-89
6th of 6 in a 0-93.

Lets compare that with last three wins here:

1st of 7 in a 0-71 (off 69)
1st of 6 in a 0-85 (off 74)
1st of 12 in a 0-80 (off 71)

Today hes in a 0-74 off 73.

(Busy Street has just been declared a non runner.)

The trip is a negative on the flat just the 1 win further than 12.5f. (13-1-4-0) but he did manage a 2nd here at this trip in a class 2 event.

Glen has done me a few favours in the past so i will be giving him another go at BFSP.
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More contradictory work to follow. Well in truth as ever its weighing up the positives and negatives. I've had some success following Herrington horses at Newcastle. For some reason i haven't followed his at Wolverhampton. I did a bit of digging a while back and came up with this stat.
Wins 32% of grade 6 Handicaps wolves- 5f to 9.5f from 2018 onwards. (figures since i did that that 13-0-5). The reason I mention this as I've just checked Herrington distance wise at Newcastle - and hes another trainer who's had no winners from further than a mile at the track. ( I've put up a Waggot horse who has the same stat on another thread). Anyhow that rambling gives me the main negative about Archippos in the 1.40pm .

On to the positive. Came 2nd in a Class 6 event like here over CD off a mark off 56. (0-72). Then runs here in a class 5 and bombs. 2 runs at Southwell bombs in both. Now back here off 51 in a 0-62. Will back it if i see some blue on oddschecker will update if i do so. Otherwise BFSP as well.
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