AustinDillon75
Colt
This thread Approaching speed figures took an unexpected turn so having read some of the posts and in particular, some observations over Dubai Warrior and Bangkok's respective merits, I've decided to have another look at standard times for Lingfield.
The table below converts all winning times from 2019 into a 100 rating. The top time is 117.98 by a horse called Affluence, a fairly muddling horse who had some success in Class 5/6 across both flat and all weather.
He won the race on 8 March off a rating of 50. He was carrying 9st 5.
Winning time was a very respectable 2 mins 03.65 seconds (123.65).
If a 100 horse he'd have assumedly run 55lb better (100 - 50 + 5).
200 / 123.3 = 1.62 (lb per length)
55lb / 1.62 = 34.00
34 / 6 (6 seconds per length) = 5.67 seconds
So 123.3 - 5.67 = 117.98. That tops the table of 35 wins over that distance by horses in 2019 below, but with a -1.94 Z-Score, I've discarded it.
So only runs 4-32 are included, as I've omitted 33-35 (+1.5 Z-score).
The percentile ranges for 4-32 are below:
The 121.20 time right in the middle looks pretty good to me. My previous times were based on a 6th percentile of ALL runners, it might be giving too much to speculation when considering some will not have run to form whereas winners are likely to have done and the outliers can still be discounted. I think I'm going to re-think the standard times around this premise.
The table below converts all winning times from 2019 into a 100 rating. The top time is 117.98 by a horse called Affluence, a fairly muddling horse who had some success in Class 5/6 across both flat and all weather.
He won the race on 8 March off a rating of 50. He was carrying 9st 5.
Winning time was a very respectable 2 mins 03.65 seconds (123.65).
If a 100 horse he'd have assumedly run 55lb better (100 - 50 + 5).
200 / 123.3 = 1.62 (lb per length)
55lb / 1.62 = 34.00
34 / 6 (6 seconds per length) = 5.67 seconds
So 123.3 - 5.67 = 117.98. That tops the table of 35 wins over that distance by horses in 2019 below, but with a -1.94 Z-Score, I've discarded it.
So only runs 4-32 are included, as I've omitted 33-35 (+1.5 Z-score).
The percentile ranges for 4-32 are below:
The 121.20 time right in the middle looks pretty good to me. My previous times were based on a 6th percentile of ALL runners, it might be giving too much to speculation when considering some will not have run to form whereas winners are likely to have done and the outliers can still be discounted. I think I'm going to re-think the standard times around this premise.
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