• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a 20% discount on Inform Racing.
    Simply enter the coupon code ukbettingform when subscribing here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Inform Racing so help is always available if needed.
    Best Wishes
    AR
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Soccer Ratings

TheRhythmThief

Yearling
Over the years I've enjoyed figuring out ratings, with a fair amount of success. I even tried my own ELO type rankings, just for League Two at the time as that was where "my" team played at the time. They had some success but way way WAY too much work to keep up permanently.

One I was using up until recently, that was much easier to work out, and less time consuming, was going really well, a profit just backing the highest rated team in a match to win as long as they were at home. During the stops and starts of lockdown it failed, and is showing some improvement again, but I think the home advantage differences, or lack of, are messing with it.

I would take the goals scored by team A.
Then I would add the goals scored by their last time opponents in their previous game, and add it that total.
Do the same for Team A's opponents today. Highest score is better and a bet if highest score is the home team.
It seems very simple, and is, but I have a few different ways of scoring matches.

I did learn it was folly in the long run to go against the highest scorers even when suing more subtle methods.
 
Have a look at this:


This one of mine uses the standard elo ratings to compute probabilities.
The important thing is to work out a formula from the ratings (as I 've done) also what does the formula score in the Shannon information scale (its predictivity) ?
We tried some altrenatives:

One was a German website (the ratings it produces are still awaiting calibration). It's posted somewhere here.
The other was the FIFA ratings in 2014 during the world cup - but FIFA replied they don't have benchmarks.
whoscored.com also say they have "the world's best ratings" but are they ? We need data.

I agree with you it's a lot of work to make one's own ratings.
 

Delboy99

Mare
... how do yours compare with clubelo.com? Are they similar as I use these in one of my threads on here during the season. ;)
 
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