• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
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  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a 20% discount on Inform Racing.
    Simply enter the coupon code ukbettingform when subscribing here.
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  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR

SIG

Filly
I've decided to abandon my old thread as I believe this deserves a thread of its own...

I have been compiling my own speed ratings for a number of years now covering the all weather races with a particular interest in the shorter sprint distances. I developed the original concept of the ratings years ago along with a good friend of mine. He is an IT programmer and he put together a program and database that automated the speed calculations. The results over the first few months were not very encouraging but we continued to refine the system and as the database grew in size, we started to see our SR improve. By the end of the first year we had just broken even (we were students, both broke and betting £5 per point on an untested system - madness!).

We continued to develop and refine the program over the next couple of years before my mate moved away. I continued on with the system and continued to try and refine it as best I could. Unfortunately whilst I am semi decent on a PC, algorithms and code and such things are largely way above my head which meant I was limited in what refinements I could make. However the main downside to the program was that the data input had to be done manually. This was a time consuming process and some days it took several hours to work through a days racing.

The time input has been worth it though as the ratings have continued to perform very well over the past several years and the money I was making always served as my motivation to keep going. My mate who I developed the program with continued on himself for a while before abandoning the program and turning his attention to tennis. He developed a program and made himself a small fortune, enough to quit his six figure a year IT job. Anyway we had a conversation a few months ago and I told him what a chore the old system was to run. He said to send it across and he would find time to look at it and see what he could do with it.

He is a busy man though (spends his life on the exchange!) so I wasn't actually expecting him to do much. I took it upon myself to refine the program and I spent a few months using what little bits of IT know how I've picked up over the years to rebuild the program. However my mate did actually look at the program and what he has done with it is nothing short of incredible! He has developed the program in all the ways I wanted to but just didn't have the technical know how to make happen. He has fully automated the entire process and has back dated the database of horses, races and ratings which now goes back years. He has back-tested hundreds of different configurations and base filters and refined the most profitable of those into their own selection method.

The entire process has gone from taking me several hours to cover a few select all weather races to covering every single race in the UK & Ireland in just two clicks of the mouse. As you can imagine this has opened up a world of opportunity so as of tomorrow I will start testing several systems. I will post in this thread the selections for some of these and the remainder I will test privately. It could take a couple of weeks to find our feet as the information is now presented in a different (but better) way than what I have been used but regardless, I am very excited at the potential that these ratings have. I've subscribed to several different rating services over the years and I would honestly say that my own ratings were better. The challenge will be how well they translate in the longer distance races as they were primary designed for sprint races but time will tell...

The systems I am going to test are the ones centred around the most profitable base filters that were uncovered during the limited back testing. Although this function is limited, it should still give me a fair starting point for uncovering any profitable ways into these races. I've listed the systems below for reference - All will start with a 100pt bank betting 1% (1pt) stakes. I will post the selections up the night before along with the price I've taken and will try to update the thread with any updates before the off. The systems are as follows;

System 1 - All Weather Sprint Race System

System 2 - Flat Racing Sprint Race System

System 3 - Top Speed All Weather System

System 4 - Top Speed Flat Racing System

System 5 - Longer Shot All Weather System

System 6 - Longer Shot Flat Racing System

System 7 - Forecast System

System 8 - Tricast System

If you've made it this far, then well done cause that is a lot of text! :D The above is the pick of the systems - I will be testing a few other ones privately and I may reduce the above number if it is taking too long to post them all up but we'll give it our best shot :handgestures-thumbup:

Cheers,
SIG
 
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SIG

Filly
19th April Selections

System 1 - All Weather Sprint Race System
#5.40 Wolverhampton - City of Angkor Wat - 0.5pt EW @ 33/1 (3/5)

System 2 - Flat Racing Sprint Race System
#1.50 Newmarket - Gunmetal - 0.5pt EW @ 8/1 (4/5)

System 3 - Top Speed All Weather System (Win Only)
^7.15 Wolverhampton - Mr Christopher @ 5/1
*7.45 Wolverhampton - Mazaaher @ 7/1
^8.15 Wolverhampton - What Usain @ 4/1

System 4 - Top Speed Flat Racing System (Win Only)
*2.25 Newmarket - Seven Heavens @ 7/2
*4.00 Beverley - Stradivarius @ 2/1
^5.10 Beverley - Lester Kris - 1pt Win @ 6/1

System 5 - Longer Shot All Weather System (1pt Win or 0.5pt EW if above 5/1)
6.15 Wolverhampton - Al Mansor @ 3/1 (100%)

^7.15 Wolverhampton - Mr Christopher @ 5/1 (80%)

*7.45 Wolverhampton - Bamako Du Chatelet @ 8/1 (80%)

#5.40 Wolverhampton - City of Angkor Wat @ 33/1 (60%)
^8.15 Wolverhampton - What Usain @ 4/1 (60%)

8.45 Wolverhampton - Simply Clever @ 7/1 (60%)

System 6 - Longer Shot Flat Racing System (1pt Win or 0.5pt EW if above 5/1)
3.00 Newmarket - Viren's Army @ 5/1 (100%)
3.35 Newmarket - Roly Poly @ 4/1 (100%)
5.20 Newmarket - Elucidation @ 10/3 (100%)

#1.50 Newmarket - Gunmetal @ 8/1 (80%)
*2.25 Newmarket - Miss Infinity @ 16/1 (80%)
*4.00 Beverley - Sir Plato @ 11/4 (80%)
4.35 Beverley - Bogart @ 8/1 (80%)
^5.10 Beverley - Lester Kris @ 6/1 (80%)
5.45 Beverley - Lualiwa @ 6/1 (80%)
6.20 Beverley - Livella Fella @ 7/1 (80%)

System 7 - Forecast System (Min stake 2pts)
2.25 Newmarket - Seven Heavens & Miss Infinity
4.00 Beverley - Stradivarius & Sir Plato
7.15 Wolverhampton - Mr Christopher & Anonymous John
7.45 Wolverhampton - Mazaaher & Bamako Du Chatelet

System 8 - Tricast System (Min stake 6 pts)
No Selections

Initial thoughts...

Systems 1 and 2 are essentially the next evolution of my sprint ratings and I have high expectations for these. System 2 has long been a dream of mine so I am very much looking forward to seeing how it performs.

Systems 3 and 4 are heavily weighted around speed and perform well in back testing with a steady stream of decently priced winners. I expect these to continue to do well.

Systems 5 and 6 are interesting as they are a mix of a few different base filters that try to dig deeper into the race to unearth value. Their performance in the 180 days I've backtested has been up and down - A few big winners followed by a few weeks of 4th's and 5th's. I have applied a further value confidence rating to filter the number of selections. I will track these for a few weeks and see how they perform.

The ratings throw up a 1-2 on a semi regular basis and we also get a 1-2-3 from time to time. I have no idea if this is profitable over the long term (and can't back test this automatically) so systems 7 and 8 will track these for a few weeks and see how they go.

Cheers,
SIG
 
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SIG

Filly
One more system to add to the list. I just realised that I have the option to review jockey and trainer stats over a set period of time. Tracking these stats will be very interesting. System 9 will be selections that are trained by an in form trainer and ridden by an inform jockey.

3.50 Cheltenham - Fourth Act @ 8/1
5.00 Cheltenham - Mick Thonic @ 7/4

I will track all the other trainer and jockey races separately to see if there is any potential elsewhere with this approach.

I absolutely love this new program! :)

Cheers,
SIG
 

SIG

Filly
Exciting times for you SIG SIG :handgestures-thumbup:

Definitely Jack Dawkins Jack Dawkins! :handgestures-thumbup:

I have a total of 19 systems on test as of today (excluding the forecast and tricast systems tests). I have back tested most of them over around 6 months of data and these are the ones that showed the highest ROI or at least showed the potential of a profitable selection method with some additional base filters applied. I was having problems testing these further back than 6 months without the program crashing but have figured out what the problem was with that so will continue to test these further back and see how they go.

Cheers,
SIG
 

Spook

Colt
SIG SIG Can I ask if you factor in the distance at all, is the rating for the distance the race is at or how do you account for the horse not having run at the distance before
 
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SIG

Filly
SIG SIG Can I ask if you factor in the distance at all, is the rating for the distance the race is at or how do you account for the horse not having run at the distance before

Hi Spook Spook Yes the ratings are what I believe the horses potential to be at the race distance. It is calculated by a comparison of the horses previous runs at various distances compared against standard, actual and class times for similar horses. The pace analysis also offers clues as to the horses suitability over a distance it has never run before. These calculations and analysis gives me a series of values for each horse, AS (actual speed), PS (projected speed), AP (actual pace), HP (handicap penalty), PSAD (projected stamina at distance), etc. It isn't an exact science and involves an element of guesswork but it at least offers some insight into each horses expected potential.

I am testing off forum a variant to the distance modifier so I will update occasionally on how it is performing. Systems 3 & 4 will be an interesting test of my ratings as they are the only speed only systems that I am running here. They are based on a runner having an actual speed and projected speed figure which is x% more than the rest of the field. A bare bones system in many respects but it's usually the simple ones that perform the best... :handgestures-thumbup:

Cheers,
SIG
 

Spook

Colt
SIG SIG that's interesting that you say it offers clues about potential, nothing in horse racing can be an exact science but if you can spot something that others can not, well you're off to a fine start. I am interested that you selected Al Mansor in Wolves tonight. I had a close look at him and there's always the niggle that the step down in distance may or may not suit so it is interesting that your ratings say that it might be a positive. Will watch with interest.
 
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SIG

Filly
SIG SIG that's interesting that you say it offers clues about potential, nothing in horse racing can be an exact science but if you can spot something that others can not, well you're off to a fine start. I am interested that you selected Al Mansor in Wolves tonight. I had a close look at him and there's always the niggle that the step down in distance may or may not suit so it is interesting that your ratings say that it might be a positive. Will watch with interest.

Spook Spook Al Mansor is my fourth rated on speed and is actually a considerable bit behind my top rated Bazwind. He is also second behind Bazwind on expected pace and isn't particularity well drawn either. However he fits all the other criteria for a longer shot selection although the price doesn't reflect this. I've seen these random selections are common in the back testing for systems 5 & 6 and they always tend to run well.

Personally though I think Bazwind is a much better selection.

Cheers,
SIG
 

SIG

Filly
19th April Results

System 1 - All Weather Sprint Race System
#5.40 Wolverhampton - City of Angkor Wat - 0.5pt EW @ 33/1 (3/5) LOST -1pt:mad:

System 2 - Flat Racing Sprint Race System
#1.50 Newmarket - Gunmetal - 0.5pt EW @ 8/1 (4/5) WON +4.8pts :D

System 3 - Top Speed All Weather System (Win Only)
^7.15 Wolverhampton - Mr Christopher @ 5/1 LOST -1pt:mad:
*7.45 Wolverhampton - Mazaaher @ 7/1 PLACED -1pt :mad:
^8.15 Wolverhampton - What Usain @ 4/1 LOST -1pt:mad:

System 4 - Top Speed Flat Racing System (Win Only)
*2.25 Newmarket - Seven Heavens @ 7/2 PLACED -1pt :mad:
*4.00 Beverley - Stradivarius @ 2/1 WON +2pts :D
^5.10 Beverley - Lester Kris - 1pt Win @ 6/1 LOST -1pt:mad:

*Slow start with just 1 from 6 across the two top speed systems.


System 5 - Longer Shot All Weather System (1pt Win or 0.5pt EW if above 5/1)
6.15 Wolverhampton - Al Mansor @ 3/1 (100%) LOST -1pt:mad:

^7.15 Wolverhampton - Mr Christopher @ 5/1 (80%) LOST -1pt:mad:

*7.45 Wolverhampton - Bamako Du Chatelet @ 8/1 (80%) LOST -1pt:mad:

#5.40 Wolverhampton - City of Angkor Wat @ 33/1 (60%) LOST -1pt:mad:
^8.15 Wolverhampton - What Usain @ 4/1 (60%) LOST -1pt:mad:
8.45 Wolverhampton - Simply Clever @ 7/1 (60%) LOST -1pt:mad:

System 6 - Longer Shot Flat Racing System (1pt Win or 0.5pt EW if above 5/1)
3.00 Newmarket - Viren's Army @ 5/1 (100%) LOST -1pt:mad:
3.35 Newmarket - Roly Poly @ 4/1 (100%) LOST -1pt:mad:
5.20 Newmarket - Elucidation @ 10/3 (100%) LOST -1pt:mad:

#1.50 Newmarket - Gunmetal @ 8/1 (80%) WON +4.8pts :D
*2.25 Newmarket - Miss Infinity @ 16/1 (80%) LOST -1pt:mad:
*4.00 Beverley - Sir Plato @ 11/4 (80%) LOST -1pt:mad:
#4.35 Beverley - Bogart @ 8/1 (80%) LOST -1pt:mad:
^5.10 Beverley - Lester Kris @ 6/1 (80%) LOST -1pt:mad:
5.45 Beverley - Lualiwa @ 6/1 (80%) LOST -1pt:mad:
6.20 Beverley - Livella Fella @ 7/1 (80%) LOST -1pt:mad:

*Disappointing start from systems 5 & 6. However this is how these two seem to go in back testing, a couple of disappointing days followed by a few big winners.

System 7 - Forecast System
No winners today :mad:

System 9 - Inform Trainer & Jockey System (1pt Win or 0.5pt EW if above 5/1)
(11R) 3.50 Cheltenham - Fourth Act @ 8/1 PLACED +0.30pts:)
(4R) 5.00 Cheltenham - Mick Thonic @ 7/4 WON +1.75pts :D

A note and FYI - I am tracking the performance of the Top Speed selections in the place market on the exchange. So for example;

(C1 7F 7R) *2.25 Newmarket - Seven Heavens @ 7/2 PLACED

This race originally had 8 runners which pays to three places on the exchange regardless of any non runners. 7 ran and this horse came third which would still have been a win on the exchange.

In my over excited and clearly over ambitious state, I very much under estimated the amount of administration the above format would involve and how much of a headache it would be to update. I've decided to lay things out a little differently from now on and track the performance of the different systems off forum. I will from now on just list the races along with my comments and selections :handgestures-thumbup:

I will also start a separate thread for the inform system and keep here solely for speed ratings.

Cheers,
SIG
 
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This is only the first day SIG SIG, it did not help that your first selection scooted in, raises expectations, but these are systems and they have a tendency to surprise, even the expert race readers on this forum have off days, and that's when their backing favourites, the amount of times I've read about people dumping or tweaking a system because they've not had a winner in a few days, long losing runs never bother me, if you have faith in the system that's all that should matter, I do also happen to have a very thick skin.
 

SIG

Filly
This is only the first day SIG SIG, it did not help that your first selection scooted in, raises expectations, but these are systems and they have a tendency to surprise, even the expert race readers on this forum have off days, and that's when their backing favourites, the amount of times I've read about people dumping or tweaking a system because they've not had a winner in a few days, long losing runs never bother me, if you have faith in the system that's all that should matter, I do also happen to have a very thick skin.

Thanks Jack Dawkins Jack Dawkins

I do have confidence in the systems and fully intend to continue testing them off forum. I just bit off way more than I could chew thinking I could keep them all updated here hence the change. The ratings themselves performed okay yesterday which is the main thing and I believe the new format will give them a much fairer representation rather than than listing dozens of system plays.

Cheers,
SIG
 

SIG

Filly
20th April Selections

Apologises again for the change in format but this is a much easier way for me to present my selections and what I had intended all along before I got carried away with the idea of testing several hundred systems in the one thread :crazy: I will continue to test the systems off forum and will keep you updated on their progress but I just totally underestimated the time involved in keeping that format up to date. The new layout below should simply things for everyone.

These are the default selections based around my speed ratings, pace analysis and value base filter. The value base filter looks to oppose the favourite and find a decent priced alternative and is basically the same process that I've been using on the all weather sprints for years. For the purposes of tracking performance, I will run a 100pt bank and back all selections for 1pt to win.

Again sorry for the changes but hopefully that is the thread on track and underway now :handgestures-thumbup:

1.50 Newmarket (C2 6F 9R) - Rich and Famous - 1pt win @ 7/1
2.25 Newmarket (C2 7F 7R) - Accession - 1pt win @ 7/1
3.00 Newmarket (C1 6F 7R) - Kassia - 1pt win @ 9/1

3.35 Newmarket (C1 8F 7R) - Larchmont Lad - 1pt win @ 9/2

3.25 Ripon (C4 6F 15R) - Royal Connoisseur- 1pt win @ 16/1
4.00 Ripon (C3 9F 11R) - Maifalki - 1pt win @ 20/1
4.30 Ripon (C3 8F 5R) - Devil's Bridge - 1pt win @ 12/1
5.05 Ripon (C5 6F 18R) - Right Action - 1pt win @ 11/1
6.05 Ripon (C4 5F 7R) - Quatrieme Ami - 1pt win @ 6/1

4.40 Lingfield (C6 8F 12R) - Blackthorn Stick - 1pt win @ 12/1
5.15 Lingfield (C4 7F 9R) - Cinque Port - 1pt win @ 10/1
5.50 Lingfield (C6 6F 5R) - Majestic Miles - 1pt win @ 10/1
6.20 Lingfield (C5 8F 7R) - Remember Me - 1pt win @ 10/1
6.50 Lingfield (C5 7F 8R) - Bookmaker - 1pt win @ 7/1

I've highlighted in blue what I feel are the higher rated selections of the day.

Cheers,
SIG
 
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