My speed ratings on that day adjusted for weight....
SIR GEOFFREY
616 6F S
SPOWARTICUS
675 6F S
MONSIEUR JIMMY
718 6F S
Sir G was just over half a second off the pace. However if you compare the bigger picture...
Since that race, Sir G has ran a 722 and a 833 over the same C&D. Infact, Sir G's last four runs here read, 582, 616, 722 & 833 (LTO). He is running off a lower mark that his last two runs (8-9). If he continues to improve at his current rate, a projected run of 887 this time out seems about right.
Spowarticus's best performance at C&D recently was 775. However his last three runs here read, 775, 426 & 675 (LTO @ Southwell). He ran an 840 LTO at Wolverhampton but that form is uncomparable. Running off a lower mark today (8-13), a projected run of anywhere between 700 and 800 is possible. Playing it safe at 782 this time out seems about right.
Monsieur Jimmy has only had the one comparable run recently when he ran his winning 718. We should expect an improvement so a projected run of 743 this time out seems about right.
The only other two horses worthy of consideration....
Lackaday has ran the quickest around here at 845 on his last trip around Southwell. However that run was over three months ago and was off a mark of 8-5. He is carrying 9-7 today which "should" slow him down. That isn't why I rate him as the the danger horse. The reason is his 933 LTO at Wolverhampton. Yes the form is uncomparable in many respects but it shows ability at this distance. Plus he was running of a mark of 9-7 that day also.... He is joint top in raw projected speed with Sir G but the weight adjustment pushes his projected run down to just under 800 this time out. Seems about right.
And finally Viva Verglas who only has one comparable run of 806. Even if we expect an improvement on his LTO, a projected run of around 830 - 850 this time out still isn't enough.
That makes the overall projected ratings for this race....
Sir Geoffrey - 887
Viva Verglas - 850
Lackaday - 798
Spowarticus - 782
Monsieur Jimmy - 718
The pace analysis shows two potential early pace setters in Danish Blue and Spowarticus. Despite only having two quick starters, I see this race being run at a quick pace due to the number of chasers in the pack. Lackaday, Sir G, Viva Verglas, Monsieur Jimmy and Percy's Gal all like to chase the leader which will quicken the pace. This won't suit Spowarticus who has proven pace issues in the final furlong anyway. Expect to see him fade away 1f out.
I have respect for Danish Duke and have looked at him even closer since your post. He has been running in 7f races recently and lost them in the last furlong. That tells me 6f is likely his distance. His LTO over 7f @ Southwell was an impressive 876. However I'm hoping the high draw will not suit as it gives him 8 other horses to beat to the first bend including all the forementioned chasers above who will be off after Spowarticus. I'm hoping he gets caught mid pack and therefore rendered ineffective. I also have doubts about his fitness as he is being turned out especially quickly for this run given that he usually needs a month off after a race.
With the early pace setters neutralized, it then comes down to the speed of the chasing pack. All of the above top rated horses are drawn low and they will likely go into the bend two or three abreast. I have Sir G pinned as nearly half a second faster overall as long as he improves as per his recent form. However the race will be largely decided coming off the first bend. Coming from behind at Southwell is especially challenging and Sir G will need to be part of the chasing pack when the race shifts down a gear just over 1f out if he is to stand a chance.
That is how I see the race playing out. It will be a close run thing but I reckon Sir G (currently 8.40 on the exchange) has the best value chance.
Thanks for dropping in!
Cheers,
SIG