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Selections via Pegwell Bay

mlmrob

mlmrob

Sire
By combining VDW and Weights Right I am hoping to produce a method that will regularly visit the winners enclosure.
I am going to use the method VDW outlined re Pegwell Bay.

First Six In the Betting Forecast.
I will use the Sporting Life tissue for this.

From the first six in the betting forecast note the three highest consistent horses.

From the first six in the betting forecast note the three highest on ability.

If any horses survive both rules move onto the next part of the method.

From the first six in the betting forecast make a note of the penalty value of each of their last three races.

Check that any qualifiers from consistency/ability are amongst the highest.


I will add in Weights Right top 3 rated from their last two races from the first six in the betting.

Will see what we come up with.

I have not looked at reams of past results but I will post the selections each day, if any, in here. But in true VDW style there were two selections today, one won 4/1 and the other lost. :)
 
CATTERICK 2.20 CLASS 4 HANDICAP AVERAGE OR 110 PV 48

Alpha One has run two sound races. He was second last time in a race with a penalty value of 44 and average OR of 110. That is 12lbs above the par for that class. Previously won a race with a penalty value of 31 and an average OR rating of 105, 7lbs above the par.

Brave Sparatcus would have won last time but for tipping up at the last. That was a race with a pv of 20 and it was a just a par class 5 race. He has previously won a decent class 5, 5lbs above par and a pv of 23.

Classical Mist won a par class 4 last time that had a pv of 38 and had previously finished fourth in a par class 4 with a pv of 25.

Ormus won a race with an average OR of 103 last time, 5lbs above par. He had previously finished second in a weak class 3, 8lbs below par though the penalty value was 52.

Conclusion.
This looks a good opportunity for Alpha One. Though on paper a tougher class 4 than last time, his main protagonists would have to improve somewhat to take a hand.
 
LINGFIELD 12.50

Hot Sugar landed a gamble the other day in a similar race to this and will be all the rage off 2lbs higher.That was his first run for Mick Appleby and he looks sure to run well again. Andrew Mullen, the stable jockey, has gone to Wolverhampton though.

Welease Bwian was favourit for that race on Saturday and re-opposes on the same terms though he has a 5lbs claimer on board today. He has just one class 6 win to his name and is 0-11 in class 5 and 0-4 at Lingfield.

Roys Legacy drops in class after being beaten just 2ls in a race with a PV of 40. The average OR was 80 compared to 69 today. He has the beaten of Welease Bwian on their meeting on 19th December. He had Mother Jones just behind and is 1lb worse off with her. He has run three times at Lingfield with a win and two places. He is 4-9 in the tongue tie on the sand, 4-8 at Lingfield and Kempton. He produced a speed figure of 65 when he won over course and distance and nothing in this field has come close to matching that.

Mother Jones has struggled off marks above her last win off 68. She is 0-9 on the sand off marks 69-74.

Billy Red comes from a yard that is struggling. Not one horse placed from eleven runners in the last fortnight. He is back on the winning mark when he last won on the sand in March but recent form leaves a lot to find. He is 2-38 over 5 furlongs.

Dancing Freddy is 2-38 on the all weather surfaces and has never placed in seven outings here.

Conclusion; The dropping in class Roys Legacy looks the one to be on. Hot Sugar looks sure to give him a race but with the stable jockey off to Wolverhampton and Roys Legacy possessing that bit of class he looks the one though there is nothing between the horses on the form figures.

AYR 2.00

Dannanceys Hill has had his run in a novice chase to qualify for this and he should be expected to run much better. He looked a weak finisher over hurdles. McCain has a 33% strike rate in chases at Ayr. It is a big ask for the horse to carry 11-12 on this ground even though he has won a point in Ireland.

Tipsy Dara races off a career high mark and though she has won four races, she has never followed up. She is unbeaten on heavy ground, 3-3 but those three wins were on stiff tracks, she is 0-3 at Ayr. She is 0-7 on flat tracks.

Et Maintenant is as honest as they come and he has a great record at Ayr. His record in class 4 on soft or heavy ground reads 10 races with 3 wins and 6 places. The only time he was out of the frame was a 4th of 11. He has a second and win from two runs at Ayr under those conditions.

The Magic Bishop beat Et Maintenant 0.5l at Carlisle and with claims is better off at the weights today. He has conditions to suit but he is 0-3 on flat tracks and has never run here.

Conclusion; Et Maintenant was second on this card last year in a better race than this and the drop back in distance looks likely to be key today.
 
CATTERICK 2.15

PENTIFFIC
18-315-99-77-123-1-6-4-4
CLOUDY TOO
11-38-109-38-110-5-7-7-5
NIGHT IN MILAN
7-37-106-129-32-7-5-3-3
LIVELY BARON
5-58-115-157-133-1-1-1
ANY CURRENCY
11-95-115-619-138-5-2-6-2
DESPERATE DEX
4-28-98-101-114-1-4-2-7
JAUNTY JOURNEY
9-36-94-162-117-5-3-5-6

A load of gobbldegook? Certainly unless I explain each number.
The seven horses are amongst the first six in the betting. Two have the same price hence seven horses.

First Number is VDW Consistency rating
Second Number VDW Ability rating
Third Number is Weights Right Rating
Fourth Number is Penalty Value of Last race
Fifth Number is the average OR for that race
Sixth Number is the position in the betting for the last race
Seventh , Eighth and Ninth numbers are the positions in three sets of different form ratings if these seven were the only runners in the race.

One horse stands out, Lively Baron who is the only horses amongst the top 3 rated of every discipline. These are his positions; 1-3-1-3-1-1-1-1.


He will handle the distance, he will handle the ground and he should handle the physical weight.
Maguire is 5-9 on the horses and McCain is in form.
 
WOLVERHAMPTON 3.35

SAOI
14-38-68-23-73-1-1-1
KNOWE HEAD
8-29-63-30-70-2-2-2
AVAILED SPEAKER
22-23-48-25-68-4-3-4
FAME AGAIN
14-25-623-29-68-5-5-3
CANARY WHARF
18-23-68-40-78-3-4-5

With Saoi returning figures of 2-1-1-5-2-1-1-1 and Knowe Head 1-2-3-2-3-2-2-2, it looks likely they will fight out the finish.

Saoi is 0-2 in class 4 and has never run at Wolverhampton before. However, he is showing improvement in the hood and he may well collect.
Knowe Head is 3-12 over course and distance and has shown improvement in the visor.
Both horses need something to aim at and with no pace in the race, they are left alone.
 
LINGFIELD 3.10

Emerald Wildnerness has impressive figures from the eleven disciplines I use.
1-1-1-1-1-3-1-2-1-1-1

He won this race last year and is 3-6 over 10 furlongs in class 3. Toby Atkinson takes a valuable 5lbs off. He will have this run to suit with two front runners in the race and he is the only hold up horse.

EMERALD WILDERNESS (WIN)

KEMPTON 2.40

Bears Affair and Black Thunder are both in the top 3 rated in nine of the leven disciplines. Bears Affair is top rated in three and Black Thunder in four. Very difficult race to call and is best left alone.

KEMPTON 3.15

Baile Anrai is in the top three in ten of the eleven disciplines. It his his consistency that has let him down. He is only top rated in two but at his piece he looks ripe for an each way bet.

BAILE ANRAI (EW)

WARWICK 3.35

Bradley and Restless Harry are on the top three in nine of the eleven disciplines. Both are let down on consistency.They possess extremes of racing tactics with Bradley a hold up horse and Restless Harry liking to lead. With just Pete The Feat the only other front runner the pace should be decent.
However, I am leaving them both alone as 8 of the last 10 winners of this have been Irish Bred.

WETHERBY 2.50

Ubaltique returns the following figs 3-1-2-3-3-3-1-1-2-2-3 and that makes him the each way pick for this race.

UBALTIQUE (EW)
 
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