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ROUGH QUEST - VDW - PAT POWER etc

I originally posted this on VDW Rambling but I feel it deserves a post of its own. Pat Power was a great advocate of VDW, and indeed claimed a strike rate of 70% , including staking £50 each way on Selhurst Flyer at 33/1 when it won at Royal Ascot on 20/06/97. He also said he won £2000 when Rough Quest won the GN.

Nothing much to do on a wet Monday so here is an exercise pass the time.
Grand National 1996
Below is a list of the 5 most consistent in the race:

1..Rough Quest 5...(7)...174...1310*,,,G2*...320
2...Encore Un Peu 6...(4)...218*...220....Fr...590
7...Life of A Lord 3*..(5)...98...500...G2*...300
16...Lusty Light 8...(0)..56...70...C2...120
F...Party Politics 7...(7)...209...500...G2*...990*
UR...Wild Hyde 6...(2)...71...30...G2*...160

The columns from left are; finishing position in GN...Horse name...consistency figure...overall rating total in brackets...ability rating...last race class...winning class...winning class in £'s.
A reading of the form shows that Rough Quest is massively down in class and weight. Lto, 2nd in GC carrying 12st; carrying 10-7 in GN. A stat like that kinda leaps out at you! It is joint top (7) in my ratings along with Party Politics, but PP hasn't won for nearly 3 years, and in it's only run for over a year was pulled up when tailed off in Feb. Hardly inspiring fomr for the GN!
The other one in consideration was Life of A Lord, but it had pulled up behind Imperial Call at Leopardstown when way behind. RQ was beaten only a few lengths by IC in the GC and LOAL was now expected to give RQ almost a stone. Couldn't be done!
So when you added everything up RQ was a stone cold banker if it stood up.
Oh, and one other thing - RQ had the perfect 2nd numerical picture too (3)!
 
Pat's speciality was finding horses who showed improved form in higher class lto - ie improved Raceform rating - and then being dropped in class again for the current race. Rough Quest was such an animal; 2nd in G1 Gold Cup lto, now dropped in class to a G3 handicap., and with the bonus of carrying 21lb less. The trainer couldn't have framed the race better himself!
Sole Power, yesterday at the Curragh, was a current example. It was down in class and weight from its previous race, and it duly obliged.
 
.20Y
Music Master* 17..15
Basil B 22...7
Growl 22...6
These are basically a bunch of inconsistent animals and the 3 probables are only consistent by default. MM is the cl/form horse by a mile and should win, but 4/9 for a horse with this profile is not for me. Growl, being only 3, probably has the most scope for improvement, but none of them would get my money!
MM is dropped in class and weight so is, I guess, a Pat Power type - but I don't think he would have rushed to back him at this price!
I suppose Basil B is a P Power type also, but it run lto wasn't very encouraging.
 
3.20S
Elm Park is a likely P Power candidate, being down in both class and weight. If you ignore its last run - the Derby - where it was both outclassed and out-distanced it form figures are 113. The horse clearly doesn't stay 1 1/2 miles at top class, but the only concern today is whether it will be fully tuned up. It has entries in several G1 mile races later in the year,which suggest one of these will be the target and not todays race. So will it be up for it today? And at around 8/11 ir it worth the risk?
Elm Park 5-14?...15
Gabriel 11....11
Decorated Knight 4...4
DK is clearly outclassed which leaves it between EP & G. There is no doubt EP is the class horse by a long way, and it has got its distance and going today, but will it be fully tuned up? Maybe a watching brief?
 

Chesham

Sire
3.20S
Elm Park is a likely P Power candidate, being down in both class and weight. If you ignore its last run - the Derby - where it was both outclassed and out-distanced it form figures are 113. The horse clearly doesn't stay 1 1/2 miles at top class, but the only concern today is whether it will be fully tuned up. It has entries in several G1 mile races later in the year,which suggest one of these will be the target and not todays race. So will it be up for it today? And at around 8/11 ir it worth the risk?
Elm Park 5-14?...15
Gabriel 11....11
Decorated Knight 4...4
DK is clearly outclassed which leaves it between EP & G. There is no doubt EP is the class horse by a long way, and it has got its distance and going today, but will it be fully tuned up? Maybe a watching brief?
I would have thought Elm Park and Decorated Knight over Gabrial.

If you look at the Future Form entries for those two and compare those to Gabrial, who has had plenty of races this season and may have had one to many.

I think that Roger Varian will be trying to win this as he could easily have gone for a Handicap Race off the BHA Rating that DK is on at present and for me is the two to take into consideration for this race, as opposed to Gabrial


Decorated Knight out of a Dam who was a sister to Giants Causeway and has a very nice Pedigree and lots of Black Type Winners showing up with matings between a Galileo and Stormcat Dam


Notable Grp 1 Winners form such matings

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Screen Shot 2015-09-16 at 14.30.09.png
 

Chesham

Sire
Decorated Knight has been taken out of the race, Trainer not happy with the going (One To Notebook, where ever he goes)
 
Have applied the P Power methodology to the 4.35A

CHANCERY...120...102*...DG...10*...99*...108...76*...-2 .... 4*
GWORN.........160*...59...CDG*...10*...95...108...76*...-9.... 4*
EL BEAU........60......40...CDG*...12.....96...104...73....-9 .... 1*
JOILVITESSE..90...30.....---......13..... 93...107....76*...-13* .... 2*
SALIERIS MASS..120...51...D....10*.....97...111*...75...+3 ..... 2*
THE 4* horses are the selections.
(see previous post on P Power methodology for an explanation of what the columns stand for)

My own methodology is as follows;

Chancery 10...10
Gworn 10....7
Salieris Mass 10...7
my first numbers are the consistency figures, second numbers are the total scores from all disciplines - highest score best.
Chancery clearly is best with a score of 10. Overall the results are very similar to P Powers.
 
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mickeddy

Colt
Well done with MQ in your first race Tom. I also had a quick look at the 4-35 Ayr and have.
Salieris Mass*
Chancery
El Beau
Buonarroti
Haven't bet in the race though.
 
Should have posted Don't Touch up here yesterday - but I posted everywhere else except here!
Don't Touch* 3...7...(3)
Buckstay 6...4...(9)
Sound Advice 4...3...(3)

Don't Touch was an improving 3yr old, unbeaten, had won its last race with an amazing burst of speed in last 50 yds, having been in a very unpromising position a furlong out,and - most important - was very highly thought of by R Fahey. It had all the attributes of a VDW 'banker' and it duly won.
 
Last edited:
You mean Don't Touch Tom!

Well done ran very well! George Bowen was my idea of a Pat Powers type, though he had it in the bag!

Did not see Tatlitsu beating him! Feel the draw played a big part in his defeat with the horses around him being low drawn.
 
You mean Don't Touch Tom!

Well done ran very well! George Bowen was my idea of a Pat Powers type, though he had it in the bag!

Did not see Tatlitsu beating him! Feel the draw played a big part in his defeat with the horses around him being low drawn.
GB too Paul. Very unlucky I thought. I had it in D&T with DT and Right Touch too. Would have been a right touch!
 

nagwa

Colt
Hi tom well. Done. With your selecting do you. Use sad Ken criteria for your initial process is the pat power methods based on other factors. Thanks
 
You mean Don't Touch Tom!

Well done ran very well! George Bowen was my idea of a Pat Powers type, though he had it in the bag!

Did not see Tatlitsu beating him! Feel the draw played a big part in his defeat with the horses around him being low drawn.
Yeah, I meant Don't Touch!!
 
Hi tom well. Done. With your selecting do you. Use sad Ken criteria for your initial process is the pat power methods based on other factors. Thanks
P Power is based on improved SF - RPR when raised in class,then dropped back in class for the race in consideration. But most of the VDW methodology also comes into play; ie, a/rating, consistency figures, class of race lto etc. When they all add up you have possible bet.
Sad Ken...I seem to have forgotten his methodology...remind me again.
 
Cambridgeshire Sat 26th Sept. Cl 2

The first 4 in the betting are of interest from a VDW viewpoint. Of course some of them may be non-runners come the day, so a watching brief only at present.
Breden 8...6
Basem 8...8
Rossburg 10...6
Earth Drummer 11...6
Also of interest, but dependent on getting into the handicap are;
Musaddas 9...4
Third Time Lucky 7...5
I shall be keen to see how many are left in the final line-up
 

nigel90

Colt
Hi Tom O'Brien Tom O'Brien
The "Sad Ken" methodology is the basis of my selections - Look for horses that have shown inproved SFs LTO and then put them into a matrix which includes AR, win strike rate consistency ratings position in the forecast etc. He also went on to try different ideas to nail down the shortlist to just one. I don't follow his workings to the letter as he was always at pains to say that it was a basis to work from rather than a method set in stone. I do find though that the basics narrow the field down well with the winner showing in the initial list more often than not although I have not calculated the figure accurately.
Sad Ken effectively is based I think on the Roushayd example.
 
Yeah, I have had a quick reprise of the Sad Ken method. It is very similar to the Pat Power method, and both are heavily influenced by VDW methodology. My own method isn't that different to either of them; I imagine we all come up with a similar set of 'probables'. Any differences probably lie in our personal interpretations of the information.Though VDW did say we should all wind up with the same horse!
Here's my list of filters.
Consistency
Ability
Race class lto
Overall win strike rate
In first 5/6 betting
C/D/G winner
Beaten Fav?
Racing Post ratings
Daily Mail ratings
Progressive? ( improved in last 3/4 runs? ie, up in class/weight and either wins or finishes close up)
 

Chesham

Sire
Hi Tom O'Brien Tom O'Brien
The "Sad Ken" methodology is the basis of my selections - Look for horses that have shown inproved SFs LTO and then put them into a matrix which includes AR, win strike rate consistency ratings position in the forecast etc. He also went on to try different ideas to nail down the shortlist to just one. I don't follow his workings to the letter as he was always at pains to say that it was a basis to work from rather than a method set in stone. I do find though that the basics narrow the field down well with the winner showing in the initial list more often than not although I have not calculated the figure accurately.
Sad Ken effectively is based I think on the Roushayd example.
Daily Mail was not used but I have included it for reference. At the time of Posting my user name on that Forum was Monster

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