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Retriever's 'LAYS'

retriever

Gelding
Hi paulb164 paulb164 and anyone else looking in.
Unfortunately I am going to have to put this 'project' on hold indefinitely. Reason being I have had to give up my sub to HRB as I need to save costs where I can. The systems I had were not really 'trustworthy' to bet on and I cannot afford to waste money at the moment.
As I may have mentioned in the past, I had recently gone self-employed, working from home, and I 'foolishly' had the bulk of my business funds in an ISA (stocks and shares) which I intended to use going forward as I needed it. The bulk of my money in one share got 'de-listed' over a year ago and I was hoping it was going to come back to market this month or next. Found out a couple of weeks ago it's now targeted for May 2020 :eek:…..

I now need to up my game with my business (online sales) and, as I have a small amount of money in Betfair, hopefully try to 'learn' and use BA to somehow gain around £5 to £10 per day.....don't know if that's possible yet....but will help immensely with the bottom line. It's either that, or go and find a 'proper job' or a piece of rope.
So in using BA, mainly as a hobby or 'relaxation' (I don't have a TV.... :D) I am really liking the area of working on my own EG (expected goals) model/s and hopefully apply my findings to automation. So, Paul, it looks like I've jumped over to your side of the fence :) for the time being.
 

paulb164

Colt
LOL - welcome to the dark side !! From the sport of kings to the sport of the common man !

Sorry to hear of the money woes... I can give you a couple of quick fixes for football, and a couple that work well with in-play (i.e. using BA) ?
 

retriever

Gelding
The problem is......I'm a god......What's the sport of Gods?? :D……….or is that dog???
Thanks for the offer of football 'fixes' - I've found you on the BAforum - I'll PM you there tomorrow (y)
I think I may have found something interesting regarding Draw predictions....going to hit the Tipping Comp tomorrow with a whole bunch of them...lol
Over 1.5 goals are beginning to stir interest too.......Footy Traders picks nearly always seem to have at least 2 goals, and if early enough, can be traded out.
 

paulb164

Colt
Footy Traders picks nearly always seem to have at least 2 goals, and if early enough, can be traded out.
If you have managed to find a good way of identifying over 1.5 goals, then you won't need to trade out. Just need to find a good entry point in the game to place those bets... in-play is the way to go and BA in my opinion will increase profitability if it is used as part of a good strategy.
For me, when I identify a game with 2+ goal potential, I apply an automation which places the bet when the odds reach 1.4 in-play. For that plan, I only pick from leagues at least 30% into their seasons, that average 2.6+ goals per game, and the prediction is for 3+ goals in the game itself. While that seems a lot of variables to match, if you can set up something like I have in Excel to do the work for you, then all you need to do is 'refresh' every morning or night, load up the picks into BA and pick the right automation.
 

retriever

Gelding
So do you use the Excel part of BA then?
I don't have Excel on my laptops.....I use OpenOffice.....would that be a problem? Or is Excel freely available as a download from Microsoft?

Yes, I think BA is the way to go for me but I need to settle on a strategy of some kind. My problem is I am trying to build in too many safeguards......like back the draw, over 1.5 or 2.5 goals and a couple of correct scores to boot......gets a little complicated....:D Need to keep it simple.

I am testing a Draw selection method at the moment and apart from my selections in the Tipping Comp today, I had a small bet in the Brazilian Serie B game last night......Brasil de Pelotas v Guarani.....for a 1-1 scoreline (lost) but was encouraged that it was 0-0 nevertheless.

With Footy Traders picks......it was just something that I observed....not particularly that I wholesale bet them this way.
 

paulb164

Colt
I haven't used Excel within BA, but have thought about it. I don't know if it really needs to be Excel, maybe just something that can handle CSV files.

Something that is relatively new to BA and looks to be a good direction to go is the 'stored value' automation. It basically lets the automation check the odds on any market, store that figure and use it as a rule to decide on other bets. For example you might want to put a bet on the home win, as long as the BTTS market's odds are shorter on the 'no' pick, suggesting that only one team will score.

I'm currently exploring Asian handicap betting, and think that may be an area where bet returns can be maximised. If I can identify high-scoring matches where I can afford to lose a goal to get better odds, then it could turn out quite profitable.
 

retriever

Gelding
Yes, I noticed the 'stored value' feature. I was thinking of utilising by backing the Draw (with my selections) after the 1st goal had been scored.
As long as the BTTS is positive, I shouldn't miss out on many 0-0 draws and get a bigger price for the Draw.

Only two problems I can see there.....1/ that not all games are turned 'in-play' even if Betfair say they will be (on the lesser leagues) and 2/ quick return goals that occur before the game is 'unsuspended' for the previous goal. Had that happen on an Arsenal game the other day when I was trying to trade an Arsenal comeback.

BTW, I don't know if you've looked at the 'servants' (like little macro programs)….this look to be an amazing feature / help for in-play betting.

Asian handicap betting, to me, seems like you are shifting the position of the goal but the goal is still the same size. Not sure where the advantage lies there.....I guess if the market is expecting Man City to win 5-0 but you think 8-0.....then yes, I suppose you could be right.
 

retriever

Gelding
Hi Guys,
Slowly getting back into my racing ( where I have had time) and have renewed my subscription to HRB in the new year (the curiosity of how my 'systems' were doing was killing me 😄 ). As expected they were not faring well, apart from a 'recent runner system,' and about half my lay systems were still holding water.

Anyway, nearly all went for the chop, and I quickly implemented a few new ideas. I have been pondering the best way to use HRB and have been mulling over things ( mainly mentioned by dave58 dave58 ) that the best systems need to be simple with very few rules, and I remember also, operate across the whole odds range. Have not got the nerve to put in that last part yet, but my 'new' quick systems are fairly simple.

Just logged in to HRB and pulled up my Qualifiers for today (still testing, and to be honest, still cannot afford to bet yet). Here are my selections as of 30 minutes ago.

Opera Snapshot_2020-01-11_143505_www.horseracebase.com.png
Hopefully back with my Lays soon......or some other project / ideas.
 
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paulb164

Colt
Hi Guys,
Slowly getting back into my racing ( where I have had time) and have renewed my subscription to HRB in the new year (the curiosity of how my 'systems' were doing was killing me 😄 ). As expected they were not faring well, apart from a 'recent runner system,' and about half my lay systems were still holding water.

Anyway, nearly all went for the chop, and I quickly implemented a few new ideas. I have been pondering the best way to use HRB and have been mulling over things ( mainly mentioned by dave58 dave58 ) that the best systems need to be simple with very few rules, and I remember also, operate across the whole odds range. Have not got the nerve to put in that last part yet, but my 'new' quick systems are fairly simple.

Just logged in to HRB and pulled up my Qualifiers for today (still testing, and to be honest, still cannot afford to bet yet). Here are my selections as of 30 minutes ago.

View attachment 80652
Hopefully back with my Lays soon......or some other project / ideas.
Welcome back - I for one would be quite pleased to see the return of the lay systems which were profitable for me in the way I was running it.

With regards to new systems, I would say to start of simple, and hone it along the way. What may be a simple system in conception would still in my opinion need streamlining along the way, which may make it more complicated during that journey. Also, by revisiting/honing it as you gradually use it could be the answer to making a break-even system suddenly a profitable one. I usually revisit my systems every 100 games/races/etc in order to see if it can be adjusted or improved. The other benefit to this route is that you ultimately come up (if successful) with a unique system that is extremely unlikely to be used by anyone else.
 

retriever

Gelding
Hi, paulb164 paulb164 thanks for looking in (and tractorboy tractorboy too). Yes, I'll start doing my lays again once I have updated them. I think the best way to use them is to lay in the morning and get out before the race if in profit. If not in profit, then take them in-play for either a possible scratch trade or maybe a "half" dob.

I have to say you are going great guns on your 'Lay the Draw' thread. Your attention to detail and layout is commendable. Obviously honing and revising a system is a good thing, providing it's improving the possible results going forwards and not 'back fitting' the previous results - but you already know this - ( I guess I'm just trying to drum that fact into my own head really :) ).
 

paulb164

Colt
Hi, paulb164 paulb164 thanks for looking in (and tractorboy tractorboy too). Yes, I'll start doing my lays again once I have updated them. I think the best way to use them is to lay in the morning and get out before the race if in profit. If not in profit, then take them in-play for either a possible scratch trade or maybe a "half" dob.

I have to say you are going great guns on your 'Lay the Draw' thread. Your attention to detail and layout is commendable. Obviously honing and revising a system is a good thing, providing it's improving the possible results going forwards and not 'back fitting' the previous results - but you already know this - ( I guess I'm just trying to drum that fact into my own head really :) ).
Thanks for the kind words... I'm now at the point with that thread to be able to go in the direction with it as a full system, without the need to tinker with it any more. I might minutely adjust some of the filters, but I think as a system it is about as good as it can get. And that's the beauty of Excel - it's easy to set up charts for comparison so you can see where things need to be adjusted.
Incidentally, I remember you were looking to get something in Excel set up a little while ago similar to my plan - how's that going ?
 

retriever

Gelding
The videos regarding pulling data from websites were very helpful, thanks - I learnt a lot.
I wanted to pull predictions / figures from forebet.com into my OpenOffice spreadsheets, and I got the basics set up for one league (Prem). But to expand it and refine it, it was taking up too much of my time - so it's on hold at the moment. I will revisit it in the spring / summer hopefully for next season.
 

retriever

Gelding
I am going to resurrect this LAYS thread from tomorrow. Nothing too big to start with.
I will just be looking to oppose favourites running on the All-weather tracks that are around the 1/2F to 6/4F mark.
I will probably just name horses for a dozen or so bets just to see how it goes for starters.
It will be half system based and half opinion-based and laying to BFSP with 2% comm.

Don't expect a 100% strike rate...lol. Just looking to hopefully achieve a 20% -25% ROI in the long term.
I will add in NH racing next month.
 
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retriever

Gelding
Back here again :)

The form is, apparently, working out well for this horse, so I could be out for a hiding on my first lay here, but there are 'unknowns' and that signals a bet or risk worth taking.

4.25 Chelmsford Jacinth ( Do not lay if odds are higher than 3.0, 2/1 ) Laying to BFSP.

Negatives against :
First run on the AW.
First run at 7f.
Step up in Class.

Positives for the others :
The next three in the betting have run over 7f distance.
A couple of unraced and unknowns in the race.
The race is full of top jockeys.
 
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retriever

Gelding
No Lays today.
Although there were nearly two at Newcastle. Both Gosden horses, that both looked too hot in the market for my liking.
I double-checked my filters and found that horses of USA origin do quite well at Newcastle ( although Gosden doesn't ) so I will leave them out but watch with interest.
The horses were Ebnzaidoon (6.25) and Iris Bud (7.00). If I were to pick one of these to fail, then I would go with the later.
 

retriever

Gelding
Jacinth came 2nd at Chelmsford, so one successful winning lay to start the ball rolling.
Although it was a close-run thing, most of these lays will be.........at these odds.

The two mentions yesterday were also close 2nds - so I could have been three lays to the credit.
Perhaps I should not be too cautious to start with and just go with the base system/s.

Today.
5.55 Wolverhampton Rich Waters ( Do not lay if odds are higher than 3.0, 2/1 ) Laying to BFSP.

Two or three dangers to this 2yo Colt in this race - the main one I feel, is the only 2yo Filly in the race, Shalanez.
.
 
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