retriever
Stallion
One of the many great tools within HorseRaceBase is the Big Race Trends feature.
Using the past parameters of the same race run on subsequent years you can attempt to whittle down the number of runners to a few.
You are attempting to create a statistical and profitable route ( average ) of horses to back that have similar qualities to what has gone before.
I find that it can help with your general appreciation and learning of horse racing when trying to decide what's applicable to leave in or leave out.
Hopefully, I will be able to leave you some useful pointers and you also, in turn, will be able to set me straight when I err.
So to give this some basis I am going to post a 'tipping' thread.......lol.
No, not really - I am just going to Trend one race a day ( if there is one ) and operate a bank on the selections that are thrown up. This will give an indication that what I am doing is worthwhile.
General outline rules:-
1/ Use the highest value race of the day that has between 6 and 16 runners. In HRB, go to Daily Tools > Shortcuts > Current Trend Races ( this will be near the bottom of the page ). Making a note of these races, go to Daily Tools > Todays Cards & Analysis > Arrange Cards by Prize Money.
You can then cross-reference to find today's race. If it doesn't have the required number of runners, move to the next.
2/ Trending the chosen race. I am going to trend until I am left with 1 to 3 runners. This will largely be down to the size of the race. As an approximate - 6-7 runners ( 1 horse ), 8-11 runners ( 2 horses ), 12-16 runners ( 3 runners ). This won't be a hard and fast rule.
The resulting 'trend' will show a profitable +£s for the remaining horse/s.
3/ Staking. I will be using 3 points per race from a 'fictitious' bank of 300 points. If I am ever on -300 then consider the bank blown!!
One horse remaining - then 3pts bet.
Two horses - 2pts on shortest SP price, 1pt on larger price. If the same (or close) then 1.5pts each.
Three horses - 1.5pt on shortest, 1pt on next, 0.5pt on outsider. Again, it may be adjusted depending upon current prices.
4/ Bank calculation. Returns calculated to Betfair SP but will leave out the deduction ( 2% for me ) to make the maths easier.
I will do the running total weekly, if not done daily, depending on my time.
Thank you if you have followed thus far, and just to restate, this exercise is about getting the best use of the tool and to help possible subscribers to HRB and novices. And maybe make some money along the way!!
NB./ If you do newly subscribe to HRB, mention me (retriever), and I may get a free month.
Here goes nothing!! Wish me luck.......
Using the past parameters of the same race run on subsequent years you can attempt to whittle down the number of runners to a few.
You are attempting to create a statistical and profitable route ( average ) of horses to back that have similar qualities to what has gone before.
I find that it can help with your general appreciation and learning of horse racing when trying to decide what's applicable to leave in or leave out.
Hopefully, I will be able to leave you some useful pointers and you also, in turn, will be able to set me straight when I err.
So to give this some basis I am going to post a 'tipping' thread.......lol.
No, not really - I am just going to Trend one race a day ( if there is one ) and operate a bank on the selections that are thrown up. This will give an indication that what I am doing is worthwhile.
General outline rules:-
1/ Use the highest value race of the day that has between 6 and 16 runners. In HRB, go to Daily Tools > Shortcuts > Current Trend Races ( this will be near the bottom of the page ). Making a note of these races, go to Daily Tools > Todays Cards & Analysis > Arrange Cards by Prize Money.
You can then cross-reference to find today's race. If it doesn't have the required number of runners, move to the next.
2/ Trending the chosen race. I am going to trend until I am left with 1 to 3 runners. This will largely be down to the size of the race. As an approximate - 6-7 runners ( 1 horse ), 8-11 runners ( 2 horses ), 12-16 runners ( 3 runners ). This won't be a hard and fast rule.
The resulting 'trend' will show a profitable +£s for the remaining horse/s.
3/ Staking. I will be using 3 points per race from a 'fictitious' bank of 300 points. If I am ever on -300 then consider the bank blown!!
One horse remaining - then 3pts bet.
Two horses - 2pts on shortest SP price, 1pt on larger price. If the same (or close) then 1.5pts each.
Three horses - 1.5pt on shortest, 1pt on next, 0.5pt on outsider. Again, it may be adjusted depending upon current prices.
4/ Bank calculation. Returns calculated to Betfair SP but will leave out the deduction ( 2% for me ) to make the maths easier.
I will do the running total weekly, if not done daily, depending on my time.
Thank you if you have followed thus far, and just to restate, this exercise is about getting the best use of the tool and to help possible subscribers to HRB and novices. And maybe make some money along the way!!
NB./ If you do newly subscribe to HRB, mention me (retriever), and I may get a free month.
Here goes nothing!! Wish me luck.......
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