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Retriever's HRB TREND races

retriever

Gelding
I'm not happy with your Chi and A/E Chesham Chesham 😂

You are probably right.
This is a race that's more likely to go to a 3yo than a 4yo/5yo, but I like the fact that mine are course winners also, whereas the front two....yours....are not. Hopefully, I am getting more 'value' for the odds on mine.
That looks an interesting angle to take.....(LR) Track......I should perhaps explore that one more.
 

Chesham

Sire
Well done retriever retriever I took the Angle that 8 past winners had come from the Matron Stakes and 5 were three year olds in that race

Your winners came from the Falmouth Stakes and 4 past winners won that ( Although Nazeef had run in France Since and HRB would not have that data so it will still show up in the HRB as The Falmouth Stakes being the LTO race

Yes the Chi was poor but I did not want to backfit too much which probably would have increased the Chi and A/E

Once again well done glad that you collected on the race, well deserved
 

retriever

Gelding
Thanks guys. It's been one step forward, two steps back here lately.......but you keep plugging away.......learning.

Although Nazeef had run in France Since and HRB would not have that data so it will still show up in the HRB as The Falmouth Stakes being the LTO race
Yes, it's a shame HRB doesn't have this and other data. It feels very much like it's still an 'infant'.
I sometimes wish I had a million pounds to throw at a product like HRB, to turn a 'two-dimensional' entity into a 'multi-dimensional' all-encompassing being. I think you will all know what I mean :)
But then again, if I have that amount of money I would just go and enjoy racing......everywhere!!
.
.

Bank +78.76 pts .....................+65.97 pts ( b/f )...............1.5*(9.72*0.98)..................-1.5
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retriever

Gelding
When I first pulled up today's top trend race and saw that Saint Roi was running, I thought 'Oh, no......shall I move on to the next race?'
But no, rules are rules, and a return to track after a number of days may not go to plan.

Going to the W.P. Mullins website gives this on Saint Roi....
"Saint Roi (Mark Walsh) runs in the Grade 3 Hurdle over 2 miles. This is his first run back since winning the County Hurdle at Cheltenham but he is in good form. He is suited by these race conditions and will like the ground. We are expecting a big run."

"We are expecting a big run"......What does that mean? We will be in the mix at the finish, or will win by lengths?......lol

Possible negatives for SR. Running off an OR of 151 compared to 137 (Cheltenham win), limited race experience.....clutching at straws really :)


Istabraq Hurdle (Tipperary Hurdle) ( 1.35 Tipperary ) Grade3, £18k, Yeilding to Soft, 2m, 4yo+, 6 runners, ( Based on 11 previous races )

IH P.png

IH H.png

My argument about the number of days off the track is not going to hold water here as Beacon Edge has also been away for 200 days plus.
Never mind. At least the race is early in the day and we can 'get it over with quickly'....lol

But looking at the limited past races, Beacon Edge does appear to have the speed over 2m, on this going, to be a match for Saint Roi.
Will be a great race to watch.
(NB./ I tend to maintain a 30-minute radio silence after a race I want to watch on bet365, without knowing the result, so I can will my horse to win 🙃 ).

Bet - 3.0pt ( BE )
.

Of the others:-
Djingle is more of a chaser and won't have the speed here.
Wonder Laish hasn't won a hurdle race since 2018.
Chosen Mate has finished way down the field in his last two hurdle races.
Tigris River won't handle the speed of this 2m race.
 
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retriever

Gelding
There is just one Trend race for tomorrow and it only has a history of 5 years.
Because of this I nearly passed on it, but I think that given there are only 7 runners I stand a fair chance of a return should my two selections return their SP around the forecast prices. I am doing this now as I will be away from my computer tomorrow.


Autumn Sprint Handicap ( 2.50 Leicester ) Class 2, £11k, Soft, 5f, 3yo+, 7 runners, ( Based on 5 previous races )

L P.png


L H.png


Bets - 1.5pts ( BDV ), 1.5pts ( CD )
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Frank Boyle

Yearling
Yes, it's a shame HRB doesn't have this and other data. It feels very much like it's still an 'infant'.
I sometimes wish I had a million pounds to throw at a product like HRB, to turn a 'two-dimensional' entity into a 'multi-dimensional' all-encompassing being. I think you will all know what I mean :)
But then again, if I have that amount of money I would just go and enjoy racing......everywhere!!
Excellent!! New categories in HorseRaceBase system builder.

Those that are relating to Early prices and odds I have been wanting for a while :dance2:
Some other good ones in there too.....nice one Chris.
What a difference a few hours makes!

Chris really has delivered!
 

retriever

Gelding
.
Nice to get home and find that not only has one of my two Trend horses won but at nearly double the forecast price at 15/2.

And even better that BFSP returned at 12.0 :eek: ( 11/1 )

Bank +93.43 pts .....................+78.76 pts ( b/f )...............1.5*(11.0*0.98)..................-1.5
.
 

retriever

Gelding
.
Once again only one Trend race tomorrow and it only has a 6 race history. Not around again tomorrow so a similar simple trend as today.


Kempton, 6f Conditions Stakes ( 7.00 Kempton ) Class 2, £12k, Standard to Slow, 6f, 3yo+, 7 runners, ( Based on 6 previous races )

K P.png

K H.png


Bet - 3.0pt ( HB )
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.
 

brumbie

Yearling
Well done retriever, great week so far. :) (Don't do yourself out of an extra few bob, when you have 2 horses running in the same race you don't pay tax on the points lost on the losing horse :))
 

retriever

Gelding
I did say I would do some kind of analysis on my past Trends when I got past 100pts, but as we have just come to the end of the Flat season, I am not sure it warrants the time to do so.
In general, I think the AW racing side is OK but I not sure about the NH side, which I feel needs a further stretch into the main season to get a better handle on it.
I am going to see if I can run the bank up to 200pts over the winter period.

No trend race today. Highest prize-money race from six meetings is only £8230 !!
 
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retriever

Gelding
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Newmarket Fillies Mile ( 3.35 Newmarket ) Group 1, £226k, Soft, 1m, 2yo, 10 runners, ( Based on 7 previous races )

NFM P.png


NFM H.png


Bet - 3.0pts ( S )
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.

Note that I have added the Track for this Trend as pre-2011 the race was run at Ascot ( except 2005 ). Mentioned in a previous Tip.
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