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Retriever's HRB TREND races

retriever

Gelding
Only one Trend race today to profile - a low-value handicap hurdle.

Plumpton 2m Handicap Hurdle ( 2.50 Plumpton ) Class 3, £5k, Good to Firm, 1m7½f, 3yo+, 8 runners, ( Based on 11 previous races )

PHH P.png

PHH H.png

Bet - 3.0pt ( J )
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mick

Sire
I have been trying to Trend every day where there is a Big Race Trend, taking the highest prized money race and sometimes the second-highest too.
As i recall this was also a VDW recommendation, with the problem being the big variance in race type involved which can lead to the jack of all trades outcome. ? I find trends can also play a part in the lower grade Hcaps often a harder find but usually worth having because of.
 

retriever

Gelding
That was the challenge I put myself up against in this thread. I take the highest value race of the day that has a history and shows up here:-

CTR.png

I am left exposed to all types, and I like that, for the time being. I did have a runners rule, too, of 6 - 16 runners but removed that.
Leaves me open to races like yesterday - the Gold cup. :doh:

Once this thread has run its course, I should have a better feel for the types of races that suit this method, and I may start again, perhaps in the IS ( if I haven't got myself banned by then.....lol ).

The great thing about HRB is that you can save these Trends, so that when the race comes round again you can reflect back on what you did last time and see, hopefully, the ricks you may have made. The race has an ongoing 'form' line, if the general conditions don't vary too much, and each year builds on the previous.

Thanks for looking in mick mick Your comments are appreciated.

As a side note, there is a horse in the above race that catches my eye. Limelighter with the 7lb claimer. CD winner.
Last four races have been on the Flat and now returning to hurdles. Its hurdle form isn't bad but it's been in Class 4 company.
Local track for the trainer who doesn't have too bad a record at Plumpton in Class 2 <£20k. The horse is running off near the same mark as when hurdling and I am thinking the claim may possibly make a difference. At least run better than it's odds suggest and be placed.
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retriever

Gelding
Just watched the two races 365 - great races. Glad I put the Trends up in their simplest form.
Supremacy a winner at 13/2 ( 8.15 bfsp ) in the second race.

CPS.png
MPS.png


Bank +67.03pts .....................+61.02 pts ( b/f )...........+( 1.5*( 7.15*0.98 )............-4.5 pts
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retriever

Gelding
Today's top trend race was the Loughbrown Stakes at Curragh but with only two past years history to go on ( we need at least ten) we move on to the next highest.

Weld Park Stakes (Fillies) ( 2.00 Curragh ) Group 3, £26k, Good to Yeilding, 7f, 2yo, 10 runners, ( Based on 10 previous races )

WPS P.png

WPS H.png


I like the chances of Aunty Bridy just as much as No Speak Alexander so I am going to level stake it.

Bets - 1.5pts ( NSA ), 1.5pts ( AB )
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Not sure if I have mentioned this before, but as well as getting the stats showing a positive return to SP and as high a strike rate as possible, it is also an aim to have the A/E ( in this case the BF A/E ) above 2.0 and the BF CHI above 4.0.
This is not always possible if the past results to the Trend race are a bit wild and erratic.

Most on here are familiar with Actual / Expected and CHI ( Archie scoring ) but if you are not then that's your homework!! lol
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retriever

Gelding
Aunty Bridy ran a good second at 9/2 ahead of No Speak Alexander 3/1F who came fourth.....so I was right to split stakes.

The winner Elysium was a filly that popped up a few times when doing this Trend, but I couldn't make a case for it in trying to do a nice round trend. It was a bit of a stray. Fortunately, I had the good sense to put it in today's Tipping Comp.......hopefully things will get better over there :).

Bank +64.03pts .....................+67.03 pts ( b/f ).................-3 pts
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retriever

Gelding
That was probably the highest Win % s/r I have ever had on here so far at 85%.
The kind of stat you would bet your house on!! Not!!...lol

Well done Rachael........

Bank +71.97 pts .....................+64.03 pts ( b/f )................+3.0 *( 2.7*0.98 )
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retriever

Gelding
Navigation Stakes ( 4.35 Cork ) Listed, £19k, Good, 1m, 3yo+, 10 runners, ( Based on 9 previous races )

NS P.png

NS H.png


Fame And Acclaim, a CD winner, is probably banging his head against the ceiling here on 103 OR but at a price of around 6/1 would be worth the risk. Hopefully, a break since the last race will suit.

Bet - 3.0 pts ( FAA )
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retriever

Gelding
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Bank +68.97 pts .....................+71.97 pts ( b/f )................-3.0

Fame And Acclaim finished 3rd yesterday at 11/2.

It's funny how you can read a race differently to an 'official comment' left for a horse. Taking the comment in HRB ( not sure of the source ) it said:

"..... chased leaders, 6th halfway, ridden and no impression over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong to go 3rd final 75 yards, nearest finish....."

To my eyes, this could have been talking about a totally different horse......I would have put:

"......chased leaders, switched over to rail at 4½f before the bend, trapped on rail until 1f out, moved strongly once clear, line came too soon...."

The jockey put the horse on the rail to go the shorter distance around the bend but it was a gamble that didn't pay off. May not have been able to beat Keats however but if Fame And Acclaim ever gets to run on a straight mile then it's worth considering.

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There are two Trend races today at Nottingham - both £12,129, Class 3 affairs - both only have a six-race history.
I'll leave it today.
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retriever

Gelding
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Star Appeal Stakes ( 6.45 Dundalk ) Listed, £25k, Standard, 7f, 2yo, 9 runners, ( Based on 7 previous races )

SAS P.png


SAS H.png


Both these horse were about even on the forecast prices last night and possibly early this morning but there has since been a move on Toshizou and has more than halved in the betting. I am going to equal stake these two, as I thing Deputy Sandy is not without a chance.


Bets - 1.5pts ( T ), 1.5pts ( DS )
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