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Retriever's HRB TREND races

retriever

Gelding
One of the many great tools within HorseRaceBase is the Big Race Trends feature.

Using the past parameters of the same race run on subsequent years you can attempt to whittle down the number of runners to a few.
You are attempting to create a statistical and profitable route ( average ) of horses to back that have similar qualities to what has gone before.

I find that it can help with your general appreciation and learning of horse racing when trying to decide what's applicable to leave in or leave out.
Hopefully, I will be able to leave you some useful pointers and you also, in turn, will be able to set me straight when I err.

So to give this some basis I am going to post a 'tipping' thread.......lol.
No, not really - I am just going to Trend one race a day ( if there is one ) and operate a bank on the selections that are thrown up. This will give an indication that what I am doing is worthwhile.

General outline rules:-
1/ Use the highest value race of the day that has between 6 and 16 runners. In HRB, go to Daily Tools > Shortcuts > Current Trend Races ( this will be near the bottom of the page ). Making a note of these races, go to Daily Tools > Todays Cards & Analysis > Arrange Cards by Prize Money.
You can then cross-reference to find today's race. If it doesn't have the required number of runners, move to the next.

2/ Trending the chosen race. I am going to trend until I am left with 1 to 3 runners. This will largely be down to the size of the race. As an approximate - 6-7 runners ( 1 horse ), 8-11 runners ( 2 horses ), 12-16 runners ( 3 runners ). This won't be a hard and fast rule.
The resulting 'trend' will show a profitable +£s for the remaining horse/s.

3/ Staking. I will be using 3 points per race from a 'fictitious' bank of 300 points. If I am ever on -300 then consider the bank blown!!
One horse remaining - then 3pts bet.
Two horses - 2pts on shortest SP price, 1pt on larger price. If the same (or close) then 1.5pts each.
Three horses - 1.5pt on shortest, 1pt on next, 0.5pt on outsider. Again, it may be adjusted depending upon current prices.

4/ Bank calculation. Returns calculated to Betfair SP but will leave out the deduction ( 2% for me ) to make the maths easier.
I will do the running total weekly, if not done daily, depending on my time.

Thank you if you have followed thus far, and just to restate, this exercise is about getting the best use of the tool and to help possible subscribers to HRB and novices. And maybe make some money along the way!!
NB./ If you do newly subscribe to HRB, mention me (retriever), and I may get a free month.

Here goes nothing!! Wish me luck.......
 
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retriever

Gelding
Ok, today's race is the £34k Gp3 3yo+ Brownstown Stakes race at 5.45 Cork - 12 runners, 7f.

screenshot-www.horseracebase.com-2020.07.12-11-23-25.png
screenshot-www.horseracebase.com-2020.07.12-10-55-04.png


Bets - 1.5pts (SF), 1.0pt (LW), 0.5pt (EQ)

The stats I used for the above are:- Track ( Not Nass - heavy going ), Origin of Horse, Headgear, Stalls Analyser, Best in 3 Runs and Highest Class Run.

Tip1. I believe the Trends only go back to 2008 for analysis purposes. It's worth just checking that the races have all been run at the same course. Like today, the race is being run at Cork whereas nearly all of the previous races have been run at Fairyhouse.
As this year we are working with 'special' circumstances we may have to forgive this discrepancy, but at other times it may be prudent to check the 'Surface' underfoot to decide whether to leave a year (Course) in or not.
 
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retriever

Gelding
At this point, it may be worth me mentioning that it would be pointless in me giving the exact settings I used for a race as each and every race is different. It is only with practice and application that helps you determine which paths you take when assessing the stats. This is what I aspire to do.
Take the wrong path early ie/ by filtering 'Going', for example, when it may be subject to change, can mean being way off target.

Tip2. Look to find horses that can be involved in the finish of a race when applying the filters and not necessarily the 'winner' of a race.
 

retriever

Gelding
No beginners luck to start with for me, but as Michael Phelps once said: "if it was easy, everybody would be doing it".

Bank -3pts

Today's race is the 6.25 Killarney Cairn Rouge Stakes £25k, 3yo+, 1m, 12 runners..........History of only 6 years.

It took a while to get down from four selections and when I finally did, I jumped to 2 selections - so I am going to leave it at that.

13th P.png
13th H.png

Bets - 2.0 pts (CO), 1.0 pt (K)

Stats used:- Age, Origin of Horse, TT (not), Headgear, Stall position, H Win direction.
 
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retriever

Gelding
Unlucky today in more ways than one. My two horses finished 2nd & 3rd.

I am going to take comfort in the fact that, in my efforts to reduce from four horses down to my required number, I removed the winner Lovelier by using H-Win (Direction). Unfortunate to have not used another filter. Pleased the Draw stats worked out though.

13th Ha.png

13th Pa.png

No Trend race for tomorrow.

Bank -6 pts
 

retriever

Gelding
After a couple of days without Trend races there a three today and unintentionally I have done all three.
I started with the highest value race, the Glasgow Stakes ( 3.00 Hamilton ) and after arriving at my only selection for the race Convict, realised that the race was only 5 runners :doh:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So moving onto the next highest National Stakes ( 5.25 Sandown ) - probably one of the worst types to Trend - £10k, 2yo, 5f, 6 runners (2008-19) I have one in this race.

16th P.png
16th H.png

Bet - 3.0pts ( Ubettabelieveit ).

Stats used:- Best in 3, Origin of Horse.

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As the National stakes only had 6 runners I suddenly thought - what if a non-runner or two?.
So I Trended the 3rd race the Scottish Stewards Cup ( 2.00 Hamilton ). So just for interest, I was left with Cold Stare & Call Me Ginger.

So on the subject of non-runners ( the bane for any systemite ) I am going to change my rule of 6 to 16 runners to 16 runners and less. These are usually top-class races and it can be just as hard to find the winner of a 4 horse race as any other and Prize money should at least ensure a fair number of entries.
 
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retriever

Gelding
Ubettabelieveit........I got my first win.........Small race, small odds - sp 13/8 ( bfsp 2.94 ).
Another change in the rules - I will deduct 2% comms as I go ( I'm a sucker for doing it right.....lol ).

Bank - 0.3pts ( -6 +5.7 )

Best of the other three mentions was Call Me Ginger running 2nd at 6/1. The two others were poor.
 
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retriever

Gelding
Tapster Stakes ( 6.25 Haydock ) £14k, 1m4f, 3yo+, 7 runners, ( Years 2013-19 )

17th P.png
17th H.png

Bet - 3.0pts ( El Misk )

Stats used - Sex of Horse, TT ( not ), Best in 10, H-Win ( Distance ), H-Win ( Class+Higher ).

The market has pretty much got this race right over the last 8 years with the winner being Evens or shorter in 5 of those races, hence low P/L( SP ).
My selection was forecast favourite yesterday but appears not as fancied as a few of the others this morning.
As the object of doing Trends is to find the 'most capable' horse/s in a race we may have value at the current price.
 
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retriever

Gelding
Thanks Chesham Chesham I expect the market is probably on course here for another notch in the rail, but as you probably know, I do like to look away from the favourite if I can. Probably foolish to do so - and it was noted - but one can only learn from trying.

This race doesn't appear to be one for Geldings with only 1 from 16 winning this race and that is where Trueshan was eliminated from at the outset.
It's also French!!....lol

I see Alignak as the main danger if I am to go by my stats.
 
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retriever

Gelding
I sometimes post on the Trends Thread on The Blog
I would hope to see that someday.

Trends and building systems with V4 are really the two main areas I use, although I've dabbled with probably most of the other tools and info. on HRB.

The System builder can be a little annoying at times in that it feels 'incomplete' and lacking a lot of filters. I cannot always get it to do what's in my head.

As an example - do you, or anyone reading this, know how to highlight a race where there is only one female horse running, using the System builder filters?
 

Chesham

Sire
I would hope to see that someday.

Trends and building systems with V4 are really the two main areas I use, although I've dabbled with probably most of the other tools and info. on HRB.

The System builder can be a little annoying at times in that it feels 'incomplete' and lacking a lot of filters. I cannot always get it to do what's in my head.

As an example - do you, or anyone reading this, know how to highlight a race where there is only one female horse running, using the System builder filters?
You can only use the % of Males in a mixed sex race.
 

retriever

Gelding
Try Posting the Trend Filters that you are using as it is easier to contribute to your post
Ok, I'll try - but promise not to laugh!! :)

Tomorrows Irish Oaks - Initially I can predict with 50% certainty that the race will be won by a 3yo Filly carrying 9 stone 2lbs and may, may not, be trained by AP OBrien.........and where's Dettori when you need him!! 😂 This is one tough race to trend from how I normally do it.

Joking aside........what do you think of my first possible filter of..........H-Win ( Track ) Exactly 0 ?.........( 12-93 ).
This shows that no horse that is running in this race, that has won a race at the Curragh prior to this race, has won this race. This is 0-24.
This eliminates Cayenne Pepper ( Fav ), Snow ( who I fancy for this race ) and New York Girl. :think:

Doesn't feel like a 'negative' stat to use. On the other hand, they were Gp3 wins or lower. This is Gp1.
 
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