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reading between the lines with HRB

elvistheking

elvistheking

Colt
New poster here although not new to the game or forums in general.


I shall post some interesting runners in my eyes that jump off the page at me :) i shall not post every day but hoping when i do its of some interest , i shall try to include a brief reason for backing them.


Its a Saturday and everything finalised so lets get to it.


Ascot 410 = Bangkok Pete ew @12/1

Fairyhouse 400 = Vedettariat @13/8

Haydock 240 = Broadway Buffalo @5/1
315 = Horizontal Speed ew @20/1


Lingfield 125 = Shirataki @9/2
235 = Vimy Ridge ew @16/1
310 = Franklin D @11/10
345 = Baddilini @14/1
420 =Whaleweigh Station @ 9/1




Wincanton 140 = Somerset Jem ew @16/1
355 = Ultragold @ 6/1
430 = Mad About The Boy @ 11/2


Ascot BP , this is tougher than the races this bottom weight has been facing but i do feel this isn't as strong as expected for a class3 race at ascot , With an Avg Or of 121 may look like its actually an ok race i struggle to find many i feel will run upto their mark in this race hence why taking a shot with one at a juicy price.

Fairyhouse V , this looks a relatively easy race to win and i'm slightly shocked this isn't odds on .

Haydock BB, good prep and return here should be perfect.
HS. a horse with many quirks and real variance in performance ratings but has the ability to run well here at a price back in a large field

Lingfield S, Race should be run to suit and has a big plus with lulu keeping the ride,
V,Its been a while that this horse can be backed from such a mark in such a race at such odds but ill take it.
F D , should be too strong for this lot.
B , outsider of the lot here but that doesn't concern me with this horse , 6f here is just fine for this horse.
W S, not the most straight forward of horse but is one who could surprise at a price in a basement grade.


Wincanton S J , confidence would increase if money for this interesting runner.
U, There is a big race in this horse and i feel this is more open than the market would have us believe.
M A T B , just the type of horse i would look for in a race like this.


happy punting
 
Hi elvistheking evlistheking i am with you Re Vimy Ridge @ 16/1, it did not jump off the page for me but the price made the bet.I note there's been some market interest prob a positive with the stable concerned.
 
Thanks :)

A profit made and although i have BOG with near all these i do worry the money is down the drain with the irish runner and FD at lingfield as both seem weaker in the market than id expect , it is noce sometimes when we gain higher return than expected through bog but in general i have noted i do not do well at all with drifters :(

Profit is profit though so that fine overall :)
 
Thank you all again for the welcome and giving your time to comment :)

I feel we started of well for the first day with 12 selections 4 winners but more important i feel is they as a whole ran well enough with 8 of the 12 finishing in the top 3 positions despite of course some small fields do not mean they were placed but i do like to see the horses at least run well in general.


Bangkok Pete ew @12/1 = won isp 12/1(bfsp 18.64/5.3) +450 , +450, +505.59 & + 122.55
Vedettariat @13/8 = won isp 15/8 (bfsp 3.05) +56.25 , +58.42
Broadway Buffalo @5/1 = 2nd isp 4/1 (bfsp 5.3) -30
Horizontal Speed ew @20/1 = up isp 20/1 (bfsp 29.21) -60
Shirataki @9/2 = up isp 5/2 (bfsp 3.77) -30
Vimy Ridge ew @16/1 = 2nd 7/1 (bfsp 8.53 / 3.1) +66, +12 , +29.85
Franklin D @11/10 = up isp 6/4 (bfsp 2.78) -30
Baddilini @14/1 = 3rd isp 14/1 (bfsp16.0) -30
Whaleweigh Station @ 9/1 = 3rd isp 12/1 (bfsp 15.88) -30
Somerset Jem ew @16/1 = won isp 10/1 (bfsp 11.83/3.05) +570 , +356.25, +324.9 and +58.42
Ultragold @ 6/1 = won (rule4 15%, with exception of bf sb20%) isp 2/1 (bfsp 3.62) +£144, +£60 , +£74.67
Mad About The Boy @ 11/2 = up isp 10/3 (bfsp 4.34) -£30


based on £30 win or £30 e/w
12 runners
EP bog (max poss R4 deduction) +£1046 (+217.92%)
isp +£694.05 (+144.59%)
bfsp (5% comm deduction) +£934.4 (+194.67%)


.

Sunday

Naas 255 =Marlbrook @5/1
405 = Simply Ned @5/4



Ffos Las 345 = Kayf Moss@10/1
415 Barton Rose @3/1

Market Rasen 245 Secret Door @5/2
320 Monyjean @12/1



Nasss M, looks a solid type for this race that has a history where favs go well, the horse itself seemed to really fire lto and a rpeat would be enough to see this horse ultra competitive here.
SN it will take a a below average performance for this horse not to collect this prize for NR.


Ffos Las KM running anywhere near hurdles figures would be good enough, there is dangers of course as the horse is yet to do it on the track but if there is a chance i feel it will come at this track on deepish ground so if tomorrow is the day then its a win bet and would not like to lose a stake for the place on this particular runner.
BR looks the one to beat here with t/j combo form an added bonus.

Market Rasen SDlooks a live runner here for harry fry and could take a lot of beating off this mark.
M, Another at a price i would nly consider a win only wager , this horse has shown nothing in this country but had a break returns to hurdling in ideal conditions with the jockey switch an added intriguing plus.
 
evlistheking said:
Thank you gentlemen.

Lets hope V can get it done for us then mick :)
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I would say almost but 2nd > 1len was well held still the 16/1 took the rub off it less so Crates neglected doing us.! RE your 4.20 at the 4 day stage i identified it as a possible and wrote down two wishes ,use that good 3lb claimer you sometimes do and try FT BL and a prom ride.Neither were granted so i swerved and we will never know but bt < a len i do wonder if one or either might have made the difference.?

I do not use HRB but was intrigued by your thread title.You use systems or stats from same to find possible bets then form reading to decide or visa versa.? Whatever it appears to be working well done on your profit.
 
Good start elvistheking evlistheking some nice wins in there. EW is less efficient at low prices of course - have you ever tried 25 win / 75 place betting or similar if your selections get a lot of places? I have been doing that for a while and seems to work.

All the best
 
The history of the 2.55 race at Naas on HRB is wrong. The trends beneath the race are for the Nas Na Riogh but the race itself has changed. The Nas Na Riogh has taken over the name of the Newlands Chase whilst Paddy Power have taken over the name for the Grade 2 Nas Na Riogh. So in a nutshell, Naas have kept the Nas Na Riogh name but attached it to the Novice Handicap Chase whilst Paddy Powers money gives him the Grade 2 race.
 
@ mick i feel that horse had every chance yesterday to show some old zip , it ran well and you may e correct about a claimer, i feel it will have to be in a similar race though as any deeper the claim may not be enough, one to note in future maybe in the right race :)

mick mick and POZ , i use a formula that rates every race , HRB comes into play as a final stage whether a bet is to be struck or not? i use it to find a positives hence 'reading between the lines' whilst my belief is 90%horse 10% other in rating formula i always feel it correct to zone into that 10% hence why i use HRB but any old DB would do the same its just that i find HRB the most user friendly and helps cut down time, i wish it was more complex, magical even. But the truth is its just a matter of finding additional positives that stand out and they could come in various forms. HRB is a good resource but like anything else in horse racing its open to how we interpret it , We all have the same data we just sort it in different ways. I used their Speed figures with very good success for a while but deduced there is no other explanation other than they use class to produce the figure and for me i didn't feel i wanted to continue despite showing a profit , we have to do what feels natural to us otherwise we run the risk of blaming other things for our failure and that wouldn't be fair.


Graeme Graeme i tend to only back ew when things are what i perceive as favorable , of course that means i could back a 33/1 win only and 8/1 ew some times it hurts of course when a win bet on a 33/1 shot come 2nd or 3rd but overall it works out well . Split staking is fine but i feel it has a major downside in that early liquidity is terrible and i intend to have a jump on the market as quickly as possible so for the way this all comes together i feel the staking i use to go well overall.I tend to rely heavily on my rating formula to decide the stake for me through place probability so if i do not see a required return wagering that way then win bets it is :)


mlmrob mlmrob i have yet to see a db without errors :) that doesn't surprise me though but i found a positive to release a bet that could have come from any db , the horse was a stand out without the stat but it game me the extra nudge to fire a bet. I am far to tight to just rely solely on a rating and am someone who needs a kick up the arse to get me in gear sometimes :eek: it just so happens last years winner was an 8 yr old winner trained by :)
 
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evlistheking said:
Graeme Graeme i tend to only back ew when things are what i perceive as favorable , of course that means i could back a 33/1 win only and 8/1 ew some times it hurts of course when a win bet on a 33/1 shot come 2nd or 3rd but overall it works out well . Split staking is fine but i feel it has a major downside in that early liquidity is terrible and i intend to have a jump on the market as quickly as possible so for the way this all comes together i feel the staking i use to go well overall.I tend to rely heavily on my rating formula to decide the stake for me through place probability so if i do not see a required return wagering that way then win bets it is :)
Click to expand...

Thanks for the response elvistheking evlistheking can completely see your point on that - cheers
 
Marlbrook will stay further than todays race, the faster he sets the pace, the better as this one will have plenty left in the tank

Nice to see good old Corbiere showing up in the Pedigree

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