Titus Oates
Colt
Nothing much went right last Saturday from a punting perspective but the ratings actually worked out really accurately.
Resonant disappointed in the opener at Epsom but “could not have looked any better”, according to Ken Pitterson. He also said the colt appeared not to act on the track so expect Resonant to turn up at Royal Ascot with a live chance. Everything points to this race being very strong form, the winner only 16lbs off Golden Horn in the Derby. The converse is that this race could be used to peg back the big time performance of the Derby, which was 11lbs faster than the Coronation Cup and 10lbs faster than the later C&D handicap (which was probably run on the quickest ground). Given the number of improvers in the field, a rating of 101+p for the winner, Stravagante, looks a bare minimum.
The Coronation Cup was a joke and not worth mentioning further.
The ‘Dash’ went very close to the figures with the first two returning to their best form of last season (in this race) to the pound with those close up also running to form. Steps was a bit unlucky, just as he had been last year, but hold up horses in this race are always going to be up against it. Monumental Man could get to the front and might just have been caught out by the step up in class.
I’ve rated the Derby so far according to the time but, as I say, it makes Stravagante very fast indeed. On form ratings, the picture is a bit cloudier. Are we to believe Storm The Stars improved 4lbs from Goodwood a fortnight before, which in turn was an improvement on his Chester form behind Hans Hobein? Are we to believe Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs improved 7lbs and 6lbs respectively from the Dante? I’m keeping an open mind about it, with Golden Horn on 126 but am prepared to drop it a bit if Storm The Stars doesn’t frank it. Workforce was around 128 on collateral lines but much higher on time but I suspect his was the only genuinely fast race on the day and it should be noted he was well beaten next time out in the King George. That he came out and won the Arc suggests the Derby took a lot out of him at the time and who’s to say Golden Horn won’t experience the bounce too?
Blue Surf, which I’d ignored as it was first time up and I suspected stablemate Black Shadow was better-fancied, won the handicap I mentioned under the perfect Derby course ride by Dobbs. Black Shadow was well positioned alongside the winner when going lame at the top of the hill. You can see Buick looking down anxiously at that point before effectively pulling him up and dismounting after tailing off so clearly had a problem. Oasis Fantasy got a woeful ride from Hughes, being held up in rear off a moderate pace and making strong late ground. I’ll be rating him the moral winner so his 2lbs rise should be offset by his ongoing progress. The main bet Montaly was another not particularly well-ridden the way the race panned out but Saoi started his move from pretty much an identical position and finished ahead of him while Oasis Fantasy came from a few lengths further back.
I tipped and backed Ashpan Sam last time out at Goodwood when he ran like the proverbial under Moore but this time he didn’t drop back from the lead and won as comfortable as I’d thought might happen last time. I left the race alone and to be honest it doesn’t bother me that his price was only 9/2. 12/1 would have been another matter altogether. A 7lbs rise will make life difficult for him in the short term.
Oaks day had been a bit of a scunner. I wouldn’t have thought it before the big race but the rail movement that added 12 yards to the distance arguably cost me the 11/1 double with Arod.
I think we have a poor classic generation with Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs the only two decent horses around. If anyone had suggested beforehand that Legatissimo would have been outstayed by anything I’d have laughed at them and I suspect the fillies are even slower than the colts. A winning time rating (wfa adjusted) of just 107 off a decent-looking pace – the front-runners finished up well beaten – tells its own story.
Arod was an easy enough winner but Custom Cut also deserves a big mention for running him so close off his penalty. They emerge pretty much level with each other and leave me disinclined to reduce the ratings for the Lockinge as I’d mentioned.
The opening G3 for fillies was 7lbs faster than the Oaks before wfa adjustments but the time performance of the day was probably by the clear-cut handicap winner in the last, Al Bandar. A 9lbs rise won’t help him next time but he might just be better than a handicapper, being trained by Simon Crisford who was probably responsible for the Godolphin-in-a-handicap phenomenon that has served me so well over the past few years.
Back to Saturday and Musselburgh. The only bet here, Triple Dip ran a terrific race to finish third (sp 20/1) in the valuable 3yo handicap. She did everything I thought she might, setting off fast and getting her own way out in front. She was only caught in the last half-furlong but I see the form book talks about the pace being very strong and collapsing late on. The wind was reported as strong against so on another day Triple Dip might well have won. The winner came from a detached last for most of the race which is pretty impossible to do here off anything other than an over-strong gallop.
Resonant disappointed in the opener at Epsom but “could not have looked any better”, according to Ken Pitterson. He also said the colt appeared not to act on the track so expect Resonant to turn up at Royal Ascot with a live chance. Everything points to this race being very strong form, the winner only 16lbs off Golden Horn in the Derby. The converse is that this race could be used to peg back the big time performance of the Derby, which was 11lbs faster than the Coronation Cup and 10lbs faster than the later C&D handicap (which was probably run on the quickest ground). Given the number of improvers in the field, a rating of 101+p for the winner, Stravagante, looks a bare minimum.
The Coronation Cup was a joke and not worth mentioning further.
The ‘Dash’ went very close to the figures with the first two returning to their best form of last season (in this race) to the pound with those close up also running to form. Steps was a bit unlucky, just as he had been last year, but hold up horses in this race are always going to be up against it. Monumental Man could get to the front and might just have been caught out by the step up in class.
I’ve rated the Derby so far according to the time but, as I say, it makes Stravagante very fast indeed. On form ratings, the picture is a bit cloudier. Are we to believe Storm The Stars improved 4lbs from Goodwood a fortnight before, which in turn was an improvement on his Chester form behind Hans Hobein? Are we to believe Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs improved 7lbs and 6lbs respectively from the Dante? I’m keeping an open mind about it, with Golden Horn on 126 but am prepared to drop it a bit if Storm The Stars doesn’t frank it. Workforce was around 128 on collateral lines but much higher on time but I suspect his was the only genuinely fast race on the day and it should be noted he was well beaten next time out in the King George. That he came out and won the Arc suggests the Derby took a lot out of him at the time and who’s to say Golden Horn won’t experience the bounce too?
Blue Surf, which I’d ignored as it was first time up and I suspected stablemate Black Shadow was better-fancied, won the handicap I mentioned under the perfect Derby course ride by Dobbs. Black Shadow was well positioned alongside the winner when going lame at the top of the hill. You can see Buick looking down anxiously at that point before effectively pulling him up and dismounting after tailing off so clearly had a problem. Oasis Fantasy got a woeful ride from Hughes, being held up in rear off a moderate pace and making strong late ground. I’ll be rating him the moral winner so his 2lbs rise should be offset by his ongoing progress. The main bet Montaly was another not particularly well-ridden the way the race panned out but Saoi started his move from pretty much an identical position and finished ahead of him while Oasis Fantasy came from a few lengths further back.
I tipped and backed Ashpan Sam last time out at Goodwood when he ran like the proverbial under Moore but this time he didn’t drop back from the lead and won as comfortable as I’d thought might happen last time. I left the race alone and to be honest it doesn’t bother me that his price was only 9/2. 12/1 would have been another matter altogether. A 7lbs rise will make life difficult for him in the short term.
Oaks day had been a bit of a scunner. I wouldn’t have thought it before the big race but the rail movement that added 12 yards to the distance arguably cost me the 11/1 double with Arod.
I think we have a poor classic generation with Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs the only two decent horses around. If anyone had suggested beforehand that Legatissimo would have been outstayed by anything I’d have laughed at them and I suspect the fillies are even slower than the colts. A winning time rating (wfa adjusted) of just 107 off a decent-looking pace – the front-runners finished up well beaten – tells its own story.
Arod was an easy enough winner but Custom Cut also deserves a big mention for running him so close off his penalty. They emerge pretty much level with each other and leave me disinclined to reduce the ratings for the Lockinge as I’d mentioned.
The opening G3 for fillies was 7lbs faster than the Oaks before wfa adjustments but the time performance of the day was probably by the clear-cut handicap winner in the last, Al Bandar. A 9lbs rise won’t help him next time but he might just be better than a handicapper, being trained by Simon Crisford who was probably responsible for the Godolphin-in-a-handicap phenomenon that has served me so well over the past few years.
Back to Saturday and Musselburgh. The only bet here, Triple Dip ran a terrific race to finish third (sp 20/1) in the valuable 3yo handicap. She did everything I thought she might, setting off fast and getting her own way out in front. She was only caught in the last half-furlong but I see the form book talks about the pace being very strong and collapsing late on. The wind was reported as strong against so on another day Triple Dip might well have won. The winner came from a detached last for most of the race which is pretty impossible to do here off anything other than an over-strong gallop.
