Re apprentices- a good apprentice was like a cash machine to trainers years ago because in return for letting his apprentice off to go race riding the trainer was entitled to half the apprentices fees as his master ! Some trainers ( very few ! ) would give the money back to the apprentice at the end of the apprenticeship. I think this practice has changed now, Andrew Balding was on about it last year.
Questions and Answers
- Thread starter kralken
- Start date
pete
Sire
agreed. if i find one with an apprentice that i have not seen ride before, i will watch a couple of rides to see how they look. with many its pretty obvious that they will need time. There are always three or four each year though that catch the eye early and who are very good value for the claim. A quick look at a race will normally give you a good idea which side of the good/bad line they are on.
doomster
Dam
Plenty of other variables to go at
markfinn , but SD was 9lb lower in a weaker race than when he last ran at Newcastle off a break.Second Collection is the 3.20 tommorrow is a horse with a losing profile, which I'm happy to back.
Last C&D win was off 64 and comes here off 80, but been h/capped on consistency and gets first real opportunity in a while.
I'm not sure about the Franny booking, but Doyle and Marquand are abroad. He does have an entry on Monday in a 0-95.
He's always slowly away so a split bet with in running plays looks the best angle.
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mick
Sire
Odds and perceived value are a fascinating stand alone topic, over the years i have shared my thoughts on the subject and i always feel a little embarrassed when repeating, so the following includes some of which i may not have previously posted. When i first started creating my own MAP ( Minimum Acceptable Price ) for a horse of interest when the EPs started to show i was always hoping to see positive disagreement with the Books but not by too much because they are neither fools nor intentionally generous and when they where far bigger than expected against my horse i assumed that i was the one who had got it wrong.
But after years of doing the above i have come to trust my own judgement. I feel the glory days of EP value have mostly gone because the opening EPs now have a very defensive over round often 3% per runner and double the final SP, but even within these piddle take numbers they can still rick a price and if its the horse i am interested in backing then its game on.
Not backing one you have built a strong case for because its below your value odds is prob one of the hardest racing disciplines to acquire. There will be plenty of grief involved with individual bets, but my take is that virtually everything we do needs to be judged longer term and on balance and my records for same continue to evidence that this is the correct thing to do as part of my MO............Also if i changed my swear box would go into meltdown indeed the thieving F**ker might need to start paying me.
But after years of doing the above i have come to trust my own judgement. I feel the glory days of EP value have mostly gone because the opening EPs now have a very defensive over round often 3% per runner and double the final SP, but even within these piddle take numbers they can still rick a price and if its the horse i am interested in backing then its game on.
Not backing one you have built a strong case for because its below your value odds is prob one of the hardest racing disciplines to acquire. There will be plenty of grief involved with individual bets, but my take is that virtually everything we do needs to be judged longer term and on balance and my records for same continue to evidence that this is the correct thing to do as part of my MO............Also if i changed my swear box would go into meltdown indeed the thieving F**ker might need to start paying me.
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A very interesting question but what do we mean by acceptable ?
If you think a horse has a 1 in 10 chance of winning and the horse is 12/1 , you might say it has some value in it, if it is 8/1 then it's not worth backing. All that is simple enough but in truth 1 in 10 means you feel the horse has little chance in the first place and doing little more that hoping there's some value in there somewhere, of course you might get as much as lets say 20/1 but really a 1 in 10 chance isn't what i could describe as being a horse that will win.
So if you ask youself what is the difference between believing a horse is value as opposed to a horse will win ?
I have said before on here that it is only when you feel a horse has a better chance than a toss of a coin of winning that you truly fancy it to win imo, reality suggest to me at least that there are more than likely to be just as many negatives as there are possitives once you are selecting above say 5/1, I do think it perfectly possible to feel something offered at around 5/2 is really a odds on shot but it comes down to how often we get it right.
Conclusion....The question of what price is " acceptable " , would i ever back a horse where i thought the odds were a bit on the short side ? well i know for a fact that i have many times over, certainly when i've been at the course because like the vast majority of punters betting within my means is a form of entertainment and not a business. I do think there is value in using a forum platform as a way of being really honest with yourself and when i do fancy one to win i have put it on the punted round up thread and it has shown me two things....
1....How few confident bets i actually have.
2...How often i get it wrong.
Regarding Prices On Course in the LIve Market.
In my experience, my best-paying winners have come from the selection opposing a fairly strong paper favourite, especially, when my bet opened around 10/1 on many boards.
I liked to see certain bookies drop the price a point or two. If I was quick enough, I'd rush up to those others, who still had the bigger price displayed, and, try to get on.
Bookies, like punters, tend to follow like sheep.
Beating the rush, and all the hype and frenzy, was the thing that did me the most good, when I look back.
None of this price movement had affected my original choice, btw.
Sure, it didn't work every time. But, does anything?
That flicker from ten to nine or eight was my trigger on the pre-selected nag. I'd be dismayed if I saw it happen on another runner, that I had not picked out earlier.
Make of this, what you will.
I can't do it successfully on places like btfair or other internet sites
. Others, more technically-minded, tell me they can and do.
Good luck to all!
In my experience, my best-paying winners have come from the selection opposing a fairly strong paper favourite, especially, when my bet opened around 10/1 on many boards.
I liked to see certain bookies drop the price a point or two. If I was quick enough, I'd rush up to those others, who still had the bigger price displayed, and, try to get on.
Bookies, like punters, tend to follow like sheep.
Beating the rush, and all the hype and frenzy, was the thing that did me the most good, when I look back.
None of this price movement had affected my original choice, btw.
Sure, it didn't work every time. But, does anything?
That flicker from ten to nine or eight was my trigger on the pre-selected nag. I'd be dismayed if I saw it happen on another runner, that I had not picked out earlier.
Make of this, what you will.
I can't do it successfully on places like btfair or other internet sites
. Others, more technically-minded, tell me they can and do.
Good luck to all!
markfinn
Sire
Pretty much a last man standing is the way I do I go through the card and find the weaknesses and discard until none others left - back what's left ( price permitting ) or leave well alonePlenty of other variables to go at
Second Collection is the 3.20 tommorrow is a horse with a losing profile, which I'm happy to back.
Last C&D win was off 64 and comes here off 80, but been h/capped on consistency and gets first real opportunity in a while.
I'm not sure about the Franny booking, but Doyle and Marquand are abroad. He does have an entry on Monday in a 0-95.
He's always slowly away so a split bet with in running plays looks the best angle.
markfinn
Sire
Thats the real value of posting pre race - no hiding place - you were either right or wrong and can soon see that in past you might well have been fooling yourself.
Your other point I would only ever back horses that I was confident of winning the bet - I could find no value in 1000/1 that I believed could not return the 1
markfinn
Sire
I am sure you know this - If you reverse the thinking - you could do it easily enough if working to a sliding STAKE with a fixed return in mind - I used to always do this, dutching with a fixed return no matter which won. Very good relatively safe and stress free way of indulging our hobby.
mick
Sire
Personally i feel no interest in backing a horse who i do not think has the best chance of winning because its perceived as being at value odds, but my understanding is that some do make it pay by this means. What i do feel is that making any long term profit from this game is a difficult ask and those who do will have been obtaining value prices as part of. ?
mick
Sire
I think when contemplating risking our money confidence has to be judged on balance and related to the odds as part of the process. Show me an odds on shot running today and while i might agree that it should win i would expect to find reasons why it might not, and transferring this thinking to one which the market says is a 12/1 shot tells its own story.
Re your 2........This is a given for us all but again i would suggest that its the odds taken which become the longer term straighter. I often see people write where is the value in backing a loser but the obvious answer is we do not know pre race how our individual bets will perform. The other aspect which can be related is our personal risk mentality but this is also a stand alone topic, my basic thoughts on this are that a punter can back plenty of winners but still fail to show a profit.
When people are rating their horses say from the last race to the race today at what distance would you say is a good effort and one which looks good but is in reality a poor effort, again i do not wish any secrets just everyones opinion as i am here to learn as am a novice even though i sometimes get a winner i do not know how to hdcp or how to asses races am learning as i go along .
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mick
Sire
I think your ratings should be a guide to a good or poor effort. ? But if your asking how far behind the winner is a rating still relevant its a good question with no easy answers. I tend to use two red flag filters A) If it was beaten by more lens than half the race dist ( as an example a 6fur race and bt by > 3 lens ) or B) If it finished outside the top half by number contesting ( As an example fin 7th in a field of 12) then i would question my rating.
A horse in a bunched finish giving lots of weight to the winner can still earn a good rating even though its unplaced but the above two filters can be helpful in deciding its true future worth. Although when i have had a closer look at the race in question i may still use the rating even though i have red flagged it, hence me saying no easy answers.
Edit : Re your question i have just noticed that you specify the lto run, but my above is past ratings in general. When looking at a lto run which appears poor the first question i would ask is was the animal placed to win or was it a gaming run. If i conclude the latter then a poor run would be a positive from the stables perspective.
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mick
Sire
I do not work any NH races so could not say. With flat Hcaps the beaten distances are much closer, a situation i like is what i call the magic 0, a horse fin a close 5th giving weight but even these days plenty of punters will still find the 0 form fig off putting which can increase the value aspect for those who do not.
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markfinn
Sire
The question I would ask is was ridden out - the professional race watchers notes on the race would be good indication of this
For example - just a random race
Dusky Lark
when looking at form this way I would use only form from when the horse was actually placed 2nd in a race with 7 runners - 2nd 3rd 8 plus runners - know others will differ and use a key horse in the race to measure distance from -
Chesham is probably best person to help - for the rest of us thankfully the BHA do the leg work on every race and runners every day.