• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
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    Ark Royal
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  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
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    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


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Questions and Answers

mlmrob

Sire
When people are rating their horses say from the last race to the race today at what distance would you say is a good effort and one which looks good but is in reality a poor effort, again i do not wish any secrets just everyones opinion as i am here to learn as am a novice even though i sometimes get a winner i do not know how to hdcp or how to asses races am learning as i go along .


When rating NH races you have to be really careful. 1lb per length is the norm but you have to make a decision when that stops. On heavy ground the margins between runners can be vast.

If you look at todays 3.55 Fontwell

Cheque En Blanc beat The Crooner 1.25ls. It was 19ls back to the third.

If we say Cheque En Blanc has run to his mark of 110, that means The Crooner has probably run to 111. However, the third was 20.25ls behind the winner. He was only rated 9lbs inferior in today's race. He hasn't run 20lbs below his mark as he was never put in the race. In situations like this you would have to adjust the lbs per length to half a pound per length.
 

markfinn

Sire
Timeform published a series of articles in 2015 by Simon Rowlands which may help you
You beat me to it - but I will add some others that may be of interest
 

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When people are rating their horses say from the last race to the race today at what distance would you say is a good effort and one which looks good but is in reality a poor effort, again i do not wish any secrets just everyones opinion as i am here to learn as am a novice even though i sometimes get a winner i do not know how to hdcp or how to asses races am learning as i go along .
Good question K kralken . There is not much I can add to the excellent advice already given by mick mick, markfinn markfinn , mlmrob mlmrob

There is one other indicator I use is the betfair in-running prices for previous races. They can give you a good idea of if the horse had a ‘live’ chance or if it simply plugged on to finish close after race was effectively over. HRB have recently started including this information in results. Before this I used Timeform website for it, you have to register to access this information but it is free.
 

retriever

Gelding
Edit : Re your question i have just noticed that you specify the lto run, but my above is past ratings in general. When looking at a lto run which appears poor the first question i would ask is was the animal placed to win or was it a gaming run. If i conclude the latter then a poor run would be a positive from the stables perspective.

I like to pay more attention to a horses 3rd last run rather than its LTO. If that race is of the same type as todays race and the LTO, 2LTO were distance or class moves it can add points to SP if not noticed by the betting market. As you indicated mick, last couple of races could be 'throw-off the scent' races.

HRB have recently started including this information in results. Before this I used Timeform website for it, you have to register to access this information but it is free.

Same here. I always look to see if its worth attempting to pinch an extra point or two in-running, over and above the possible BFSP, especially around the favourite if its tight at this end of the market.
Best assessed near the 'off', to guard against any daily odds swings, if you have been too late to get an early price about a horse.

An example for today (have to go out so done it now).

morl 1.png
morl 2.png
 

kralken

Filly
I learnt something today
Arctic Sea won over CD in 2018 off 61 carrying 10st Cl 5 today running off 61 off 9st Cl 4 14 pds lighter
Renardeau won over CD off 79 9st today 79 carrying 9st 8 so same OR but 8lbs heavier
so weight does play a part and a big part something to watch out for rather than taken OR at face value and also i can look back at 2 years races to find race winners
 
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Chesham

Sire
Chesham Chesham Track Trends that sounds my cup of tea did not notice it so will have any delve many thanks
I Know posted a like to Tackers Post about the Inner Sanctum Blog , but we are not superior or think we are superior, just supporting each other And sharing methods etc. Perhaps you may want to think who is going to help you more ???

If you like Big Race Form Trend then don’t forget that some trend work out well next time out

0D538A64-EDBA-4008-91C4-CDFA33ACAC83.jpeg
 
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