Questions and Answers

[kralken]

Ok thank you for that markfinn interesting never looked at it that way . Have much to ponder to make better assessment choices

 

[kralken]

Also thank you mick

 

[mick]

Also thank you mick

No worries and i hope it helps.

 

[mlmrob]

When people are rating their horses say from the last race to the race today at what distance would you say is a good effort and one which looks good but is in reality a poor effort, again i do not wish any secrets just everyones opinion as i am here to learn as am a novice even though i sometimes get a winner i do not know how to hdcp or how to asses races am learning as i go along .

When rating NH races you have to be really careful. 1lb per length is the norm but you have to make a decision when that stops. On heavy ground the margins between runners can be vast.

If you look at todays 3.55 Fontwell

Cheque En Blanc beat The Crooner 1.25ls. It was 19ls back to the third.

If we say Cheque En Blanc has run to his mark of 110, that means The Crooner has probably run to 111. However, the third was 20.25ls behind the winner. He was only rated 9lbs inferior in today's race. He hasn't run 20lbs below his mark as he was never put in the race. In situations like this you would have to adjust the lbs per length to half a pound per length.

 

[kralken]

Thank you @mimrob i will certainly take note when next i look at NH

 

[mlmrob]

K kralken

Timeform published a series of articles in 2015 by Simon Rowlands which may help you

The Timeform Knowledge: Horse Racing and Betting Explained

The Timeform Knowledge explains what you need to know about horse racing and betting.

www.timeform.com

 

[markfinn]

Timeform published a series of articles in 2015 by Simon Rowlands which may help you

You beat me to it - but I will add some others that may be of interest

 

[markfinn]

This is very informative I had to read it a couple of times to get the full value of what he is saying

 

[Frontrunner]

When people are rating their horses say from the last race to the race today at what distance would you say is a good effort and one which looks good but is in reality a poor effort, again i do not wish any secrets just everyones opinion as i am here to learn as am a novice even though i sometimes get a winner i do not know how to hdcp or how to asses races am learning as i go along .

Good question K kralken . There is not much I can add to the excellent advice already given by mick, markfinn , mlmrob

There is one other indicator I use is the betfair in-running prices for previous races. They can give you a good idea of if the horse had a ‘live’ chance or if it simply plugged on to finish close after race was effectively over. HRB have recently started including this information in results. Before this I used Timeform website for it, you have to register to access this information but it is free.

 

[mick]

F Frontrunner your above a good suggestion, and certainly not one i had considered.

 

[retriever]

Edit : Re your question i have just noticed that you specify the lto run, but my above is past ratings in general. When looking at a lto run which appears poor the first question i would ask is was the animal placed to win or was it a gaming run. If i conclude the latter then a poor run would be a positive from the stables perspective.

I like to pay more attention to a horses 3rd last run rather than its LTO. If that race is of the same type as todays race and the LTO, 2LTO were distance or class moves it can add points to SP if not noticed by the betting market. As you indicated mick, last couple of races could be 'throw-off the scent' races.

HRB have recently started including this information in results. Before this I used Timeform website for it, you have to register to access this information but it is free.

Same here. I always look to see if its worth attempting to pinch an extra point or two in-running, over and above the possible BFSP, especially around the favourite if its tight at this end of the market.
Best assessed near the 'off', to guard against any daily odds swings, if you have been too late to get an early price about a horse.

An example for today (have to go out so done it now).

 

[kralken]

Guys Thank you for all the links and titbits you have given me i will read and try to digest as much as i can

 

[kralken]

I learnt something today
Arctic Sea won over CD in 2018 off 61 carrying 10st Cl 5 today running off 61 off 9st Cl 4 14 pds lighter
Renardeau won over CD off 79 9st today 79 carrying 9st 8 so same OR but 8lbs heavier
so weight does play a part and a big part something to watch out for rather than taken OR at face value and also i can look back at 2 years races to find race winners

 

[kralken]

So i have just started using HRB what would the best way to use it to Best effect

 

[Chesham]

So i have just started using HRB what would the best way to use it to Best effect

This will get you started https://www.theukbettingforum.co.uk/XenForo/threads/hrb-for-novices.19351/post-85875

 

[kralken]

Hi Chesham many thanks i have those already noticed them on some of the threads so thank you for those appreciate it

 

[Chesham]

Hi K kralken

The ways of using HRB is endless. Trainer /Jockey Combinations, Track Trends, Big Race Trends

Short Cuts will give you a few ideas

 

[kralken]

Chesham Track Trends that sounds my cup of tea did not notice it so will have any delve many thanks

 

[Chesham]

Chesham Track Trends that sounds my cup of tea did not notice it so will have any delve many thanks

I Know posted a like to Tackers Post about the Inner Sanctum Blog , but we are not superior or think we are superior, just supporting each other And sharing methods etc. Perhaps you may want to think who is going to help you more ???

If you like Big Race Form Trend then don’t forget that some trend work out well next time out

 

[kralken]

Thats awesome thank you il be looking into trends at Cheltenham and now also in future races