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Punted Round up

tacker

Mare
2.5 ex BRINKLEY 11/8

Quite simply i believe his mark of 130 is at least 10lbs too low so i have had to back it, again he has had a wind op so who knows why and what for but i like this horse and suspect his future is over fences.


Edit....Gone off it.
 
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tacker

Mare
sat..2.00 ling listed race.

A very good AW race here which was won last year by DUBAI WARRIOR and although carrying a penalty still looks the obvious choice having already beaten some of the opposition before and clearly capable over c/d.
There are one or two horses taking part that have yet to try this surface so who knows if they handle it well or improve for it but i suppose you could equally argue the opposite.

Anyway i was surprise to see hills going 15/8 joint favs with SANGARIOUS who hasn't run since early june or on the AW.

Conclusion for me is 15/8 is a good price for a horse 3-3 on course and distance.
 

mick

Sire
Good morning T tacker Re WH extra early prices, they do open at very defensive often piddle take over rounds but despite this i find occasionally that they can still rick a price and some good value is there for the taking. Re your 2.0 not a race i have looked at so i cannot comment.

Yesterday i secured some of there 5/1 against Roundabout Magic for Sat Ling 11.45 and when the rest start going up this afternoon my swear box might gain an earn but playing in WH early market is a swings and roundabout risk which is best judged on balance and using this benchmark i have done good from this ( so far ). !
 

tacker

Mare
Good morning T tacker Re WH extra early prices, they do open at very defensive often piddle take over rounds but despite this i find occasionally that they can still rick a price and some good value is there for the taking. Re your 2.0 not a race i have looked at so i cannot comment.

Yesterday i secured some of there 5/1 against Roundabout Magic for Sat Ling 11.45 and when the rest start going up this afternoon my swear box might gain an earn but playing in WH early market is a swings and roundabout risk which is best judged on balance and using this benchmark i have done good from this ( so far ). !
Yeah! I agree most times they will slide under the opening price but i would have guessed about 11/8 or less so if i'm wrong so be it, we will see.

ROUNDABOUT MAGIC I can see how he can win this near his best form and he travels so well that jockey can go wide or inside, having spent about 40 mins on it i decided to have a rest and look again later but these races are difficult to find anything in the numbers but just to note this is RM 14 race this interrupted year, not bad.
 

mick

Sire
T tacker for what its worth which may be sod all I put my thinking on the Daily Racing Insight thread yesterday. Re being busy i agree and this could work against him but he has won previously off his 13th ytd run Dec 23rd so live in hope. Re the WH price 5/1 was my minimum but i think he may be punted closer to the off so this justified the early play.
 

tacker

Mare
T tacker for what its worth which may be sod all I put my thinking on the Daily Racing Insight thread yesterday. Re being busy i agree and this could work against him but he has won previously off his 13th ytd run Dec 23rd so live in hope. Re the WH price 5/1 was my minimum but i think he may be punted closer to the off so this justified the early play.
I've read it twice mick mick and my mentioning the 13 runs this year was only to point out how sprinters can keep going all year long so will please many owners.
 

mick

Sire
I've read it twice mick mick and my mentioning the 13 runs this year was only to point out how sprinters can keep going all year long so will please many owners.
No worries i took your comment as a negative to chance and this may be so. He was given a 107 day rest this year and during his past three runs has been given some mini breaks so hopefully still fresh enough. :)
 

markfinn

Sire
Well what a day - Typical Boxing day - -
Wetherby started with a 125/1 at not many accass or Place pots will have survived that one and just in case you were celebrating next race was won at 25/1
Leopardstown was better all races won at under 20/1 barring one 40/1 winner
Limerick kicked of with a 100/1 winner
Kempton last 2 race 20/1 and 25/1
Wolves kicked of with a 40/1

in the words of - TT

1609008634263.png
 

tacker

Mare
1.05 ling...WAIT FOR THE LORD 4/1

Nothing much worth saying but won his maiden with any amount in hand before being thrown in the deep end with the listed quebec stakes which had plenty of over 100 rated horses he ran a decent enough race without threatening to ever win, this is down to a class 3 and even though he's on the drift i can't see why. No good thing in a race that might lack pace which is always a concern but i reckon he is about 5lb well in with every chance of improvement to come.
 

tacker

Mare
6.10 south...PERFECT SWISS 9/4

When i looked at this race last night i thought this horse had plenty to do off 81 and carrying 9.10, add to that dropping down a furlong to 7f and i though there must be a one or two in here to be a big enough threat as to make me leave it alone but when i've gone down the list it doesn't appear to be the case. For one thing PS is only having to give a few ponds away here and to such as BORSDANE WOOD who is attracting support but you need to go back to his 2yr old days to appreciate his chances. THE GREAT HEIR has been in decent form but maybe not so much here at southwell, LIAMBA 72 keeps running to his mark but no reason to believe he can improve on it and the same with the 2 at the bottom.
That leaves me with SILVER DUST who hasn't run for 150 days but that means less today than it use to but although you have to worry that he has for example been to york cl2 so maybe he is better than 81but his one run over c/d not so good fin 8th of 14 cl5 hdc.

Conclusion is that clearly PS is the one to beat here and given he looks a big horse which i think helps at southwell and travels well enough over 8f i think the 9/4 might disappear this morning, purely on his form which might well have been boosted recently with STAR OF ST JAMES for example.
 

mick

Sire
T tacker you make a good case for Swiss and best of. Although i seldom let it interfere when the opposite occurs Tim has become one of my Fav trainers in recent years and always good to have this thought on side. I use filters both positive and negative as part of the profiling process most are deployed in a flexible way but a Neg one which is set in stone applies here in respect that i will not back any horse who is more than 5lbs above there last winning mark. Of course this does not stop one winning and i hope this proves the case for you with Swiss. :)
 

tacker

Mare
T tacker you make a good case for Swiss and best of. Although i seldom let it interfere when the opposite occurs Tim has become one of my Fav trainers in recent years and always good to have this thought on side. I use filters both positive and negative as part of the profiling process most are deployed in a flexible way but a Neg one which is set in stone applies here in respect that i will not back any horse who is more than 5lbs above there last winning mark. Of course this does not stop one winning and i hope this proves the case for you with Swiss. :)
Yeah the positives are a given but there are always negatives including the 5lb higher mark you mention mick but he got that for winning a cl5 by 8L which could be described as lenient maybe ?

He was trying to give 13lb to ST JAMES which now looks to be a tough task and was well beat by that horse but the ones behind give me some belief that if you took that winner out of the race and PS made the winner he would now be up another 5lbs or so if you see what i mean ?
 

tacker

Mare
2.5 ex BRINKLEY 11/8

Quite simply i believe his mark of 130 is at least 10lbs too low so i have had to back it, again he has had a wind op so who knows why and what for but i like this horse and suspect his future is over fences.


Edit....Gone off it.
Well BRINKLEY flopped this day but has since redeemed himself with a win at wincanton by 9L, so now he runs off 10lbs higher on 140 so we wll see how good he is in the ex 4.10 today carrying 10-7 and hoping the cheekpieces work again. 7/1

Won it well enough today in horrible conditions with a good few nrs
 
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tacker

Mare
7.45 south friday... BRAINS 3/1 Whill

A few risks involved in putting something up early and with only one bookmaker offering odds but hopefully the track stays standard.
The form figures for this horse look less than appealing i know but if you want to go back 12 months to the last time this horse ran over c/d you will see a horse winning a cl4 off a mark of 82 , made all in a 6 runner race blew the race apart early.
78 on friday from a high of 93, quite right that he has been dropped 15lbs for what he has done so in most part i'm relying on the c/d win to justify the selection.

ASDAA is fav and although he hasn't won here the form of his track runs stands up well enough including cl2 7f close up 5th of 7 btn 2L.

SHOOT TO WIN has a maiden win here but awful since.
JEWEL MAKER yet to taste any sand is on 74 and that looks plenty high enough anyway.
DUBAI ACCLAIM same again in that this looks too hard first time on the surface.

Conclusion...I see this as a 2 horse race so BRAINS to win with a R f/c insurance inc ASDAA.
 

tacker

Mare
2.00 pont WALDKONIG 11/8

Obvious choice with this horse, won his maiden wolves by 9L, the ran 3rd behind MISHRIF, a race that proved to be most informative.
His last run might seem a little disappointing when beaten by HIGHEST GROUND but that horse went on to run 2nd in the dante so not so bad.
I'm a little surprised to see Waldkonig in a handicap so maybe they are taking advantage of what looks a lenient mark to me, expected him to be odds on here.
 
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