The early price market generally finishes at around 1pm with most bookmakers - so the market is pretty well formed at that point@cheshem and anyone else who would like to chip in - if you was to take 1 snapshot of the odds movement (i know alot of activity happens leading up to last 5 min of race when exchnage traders get in the mix , but for this instance we want to plan before) When would you think the market moves have had a significant time to say - yes this is it!
Example - if i looked at 12pm every day and noted the market movers would the moves be sufficiant enough to call them the movers for today. Or can we go back slightly early to catch the bigger price, but then the question is how far back do you go untill you stop spotting the significant market moves?
@cheshem and anyone else who would like to chip in - if you was to take 1 snapshot of the odds movement (i know alot of activity happens leading up to last 5 min of race when exchnage traders get in the mix , but for this instance we want to plan before) When would you think the market moves have had a significant time to say - yes this is it!
Example - if i looked at 12pm every day and noted the market movers would the moves be sufficiant enough to call them the movers for today. Or can we go back slightly early to catch the bigger price, but then the question is how far back do you go untill you stop spotting the significant market moves?
The overnight markets will tell you where racing tipster money is going.
Surprising how much longer the odds can be at the off from 2hrs earlier - I know from backing multiple selections that its rare that all selections shorten - but ! - I generally only look at class 4 handicaps - so it is probably a case for looking at individual race classes and types to see if any patterns exists.
You also need to which bookmakers actually have offer or early prices - most internet site's do - but a lot of shops do not - and shops will not always have same odds as the internet sites - its not black and white - but if you want value you need to get on before the SP is fixed on course - which is probably 10 - 5 mins before the off - if you want certainty wait till the last min.
This mirrors the countries that have parimutuel tote systems - most of the "informed" money arrives very late - last 5 mins up to the off - Australia , Hong Kong , US , Other Asian markets. If you ever look at US horse racing forums one of their biggest complaints is about odds changing during the race. Any studies i have seen on Steamers and Drifters tell you that "steamers" chance increase considerably while "drifters" chance lessen as you would expect , but long term you lose more (ROI) on the plungers while the drifters get to quite near true odds so you lose less. Jack Houghton done a study on Betfair years ago. Key is knowing the connections that have above average strike rates with steamers and like wise with drifters.Often on the Exchanges Mark the prices equalise a few minutes before the off and your right often you can get the odds that ( seemed) to be gone earlier in the day....I mentioned earlier this week that a well known full time backer goes racing 4 to 5 days a week but never enters the betting ring just bets near the off on the exchange's. They drive the betting market these days.
yes , think the solid support for the next four in the market swung their view here , but Joke Dancer battled on well to edge ahead at the death.In the 12.55 Haydcock Joke Dance appears to be one that the BF Layers are taking on to get beat, trading at 2.2 Times it’s implied odds