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Proven Form and the Market


Fakenham (going forecast soft with some heavy) Market odds shown around 09.50

1.25 Gin And Tonic 3/1
1.55 Rio Quinto 5/6, Earlshill 3/1
2.25 Morney Wing 4/1
2.55 Captiva Island 9/4, Potters Midnight 5/1
3.25 Achill Road Boy 2/1
3.55 Astrum 3/1


I was going to swerve the jumps meetings today because of the ground conditions, but decided just to check how trainers were coping. The only yard in form over the past 7 days as far as I can see is McCain and he has three runners out today.

Leicester (going forecast an optimistic soft)

2.40 Lastbutnotleast 13/8 early - Mccain/Kennedy
3.15 San Pietro - Mccain/Kennedy. It looks like Dontmindboys 5/2 early may be strong competition.

Wetherby (going forecast heavy)

4.00 Snougar 16/1 early - Mccain /Hughes, not one for the faint-hearted.


Catterick (going forecast soft with some heavy) Market odds shown around 09.20.

1.20 Jaunty Flyer 1/1
1.55 So Satisfied 4/1
2.30 Silva Eclipse 7/4
3.00 Bentelimar 5/6
3.35 Kelka 4/6
4.05 Notebook 3/1, Derryname 3/1


After a delay of over 2 years I have given further thought to this approach. It is all well and good to rate the runners on past performance but it is necessary to consider whether it meets the requirements of the next race, surely (don't call me Shirley :crazy: ).

Nottingham (going forecast GS with some G) RP Spotlight selects Kolisi (4 pundits agree 9 oppose)
3.15 Market expected 09.05* no's 3, 4, 5, 7 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 7/4, possible contender 7/2, not expected longer than 7/1.

1. 8 = 14/1 MY form rating (8/1 mkt)
2. 12 = 9/1 (8/1)
3*. 23 = 9/2 (7/2) Fairmac 3 tips (D2BF2). LTO 18, rates 2nd for class, D*, G*
4*. 10 = 11/1 (6/1)
5*. 25 = 4/1 (10/3) Kolisi 5 tips (DBF). LTO 65? rates 1st for class.
7*. 19 = 11/2 (4/1)
8. 20 = 5/1 (8/1) Silver Gunn 1 tip C&DD), LTO 31, rates 6th for class. D*
9. 4 = 28/1 (28/1)

Comment: I prefer Fairmac to Kolisi here although dutching might be better. Silver Gunn looks a reasonable each-way bet.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
The William Haggas-trained KOLISI may not have lived up to expectations in handicaps so far but, with improvement still a distinct possibility on just his sixth start, the three-year-old looks the most appealing candidate. Balgair shaped well on his return from a break at Newmarket last month and should go well, while Silver Gunn was successful on his sole run over course and distance and is also worth noting.
Top Tip: KOLISI (5)
Watch out for: BALGAIR (6) (non-runner)
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