• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a 20% discount on Inform Racing.
    Simply enter the coupon code ukbettingform when subscribing here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Inform Racing so help is always available if needed.
    Best Wishes
    AR
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Proven Form and the Market

runnerjp

Gelding
@cheshem and anyone else who would like to chip in - if you was to take 1 snapshot of the odds movement (i know alot of activity happens leading up to last 5 min of race when exchnage traders get in the mix , but for this instance we want to plan before) When would you think the market moves have had a significant time to say - yes this is it!

Example - if i looked at 12pm every day and noted the market movers would the moves be sufficiant enough to call them the movers for today. Or can we go back slightly early to catch the bigger price, but then the question is how far back do you go untill you stop spotting the significant market moves?
 
Weight of money graph on BF indicates a rise or fall indicator. Maybe use as a early indicator. The other option would be to use Oddschecker and see which bookies are ducking.
 

markfinn

Sire
@cheshem and anyone else who would like to chip in - if you was to take 1 snapshot of the odds movement (i know alot of activity happens leading up to last 5 min of race when exchnage traders get in the mix , but for this instance we want to plan before) When would you think the market moves have had a significant time to say - yes this is it!

Example - if i looked at 12pm every day and noted the market movers would the moves be sufficiant enough to call them the movers for today. Or can we go back slightly early to catch the bigger price, but then the question is how far back do you go untill you stop spotting the significant market moves?
The early price market generally finishes at around 1pm with most bookmakers - so the market is pretty well formed at that point
 

Chesham

Sire
@cheshem and anyone else who would like to chip in - if you was to take 1 snapshot of the odds movement (i know alot of activity happens leading up to last 5 min of race when exchnage traders get in the mix , but for this instance we want to plan before) When would you think the market moves have had a significant time to say - yes this is it!

Example - if i looked at 12pm every day and noted the market movers would the moves be sufficiant enough to call them the movers for today. Or can we go back slightly early to catch the bigger price, but then the question is how far back do you go untill you stop spotting the significant market moves?

I usually look around Midday and if I am looking at Price Disparity it is also Midday
 

runnerjp

Gelding
When I have bit of time I will look at recording the market moves and see if I can spot any trends within it over a period of time. Just wanted to see opinions on that entry point.
 

markfinn

Sire
The overnight markets will tell you where racing tipster money is going.

Surprising how much longer the odds can be at the off from 2hrs earlier - I know from backing multiple selections that its rare that all selections shorten - but ! - I generally only look at class 4 handicaps - so it is probably a case for looking at individual race classes and types to see if any patterns exists.
You also need to which bookmakers actually have offer or early prices - most internet site's do - but a lot of shops do not - and shops will not always have same odds as the internet sites - its not black and white - but if you want value you need to get on before the SP is fixed on course - which is probably 10 - 5 mins before the off - if you want certainty wait till the last min.
 
Surprising how much longer the odds can be at the off from 2hrs earlier - I know from backing multiple selections that its rare that all selections shorten - but ! - I generally only look at class 4 handicaps - so it is probably a case for looking at individual race classes and types to see if any patterns exists.
You also need to which bookmakers actually have offer or early prices - most internet site's do - but a lot of shops do not - and shops will not always have same odds as the internet sites - its not black and white - but if you want value you need to get on before the SP is fixed on course - which is probably 10 - 5 mins before the off - if you want certainty wait till the last min.

Often on the Exchanges Mark the prices equalise a few minutes before the off and your right often you can get the odds that ( seemed) to be gone earlier in the day....I mentioned earlier this week that a well known full time backer goes racing 4 to 5 days a week but never enters the betting ring just bets near the off on the exchange's. They drive the betting market these days.
 

Jackform

Gelding
Right then, back to the chase :), hoping for drier ground soon in the meantime just keep calm and carry on.

Ludlow (going forecast generally soft) Odds are market around 09.10

1.00 Melangerie 11/8, Passing Call 13/8, Rouergate 6/1
1.30 Happy Diva 10/11
2.00 Actinpieces 9/4
2.35 Lygon Rock 13/8
3.10 Virak 10/11, Mendip Express 7/4
3.45 Gamain 11/4
4.20 Flash The Steel 11/8
 

ARAZI91

Gelding
Often on the Exchanges Mark the prices equalise a few minutes before the off and your right often you can get the odds that ( seemed) to be gone earlier in the day....I mentioned earlier this week that a well known full time backer goes racing 4 to 5 days a week but never enters the betting ring just bets near the off on the exchange's. They drive the betting market these days.
This mirrors the countries that have parimutuel tote systems - most of the "informed" money arrives very late - last 5 mins up to the off - Australia , Hong Kong , US , Other Asian markets. If you ever look at US horse racing forums one of their biggest complaints is about odds changing during the race. Any studies i have seen on Steamers and Drifters tell you that "steamers" chance increase considerably while "drifters" chance lessen as you would expect , but long term you lose more (ROI) on the plungers while the drifters get to quite near true odds so you lose less. Jack Houghton done a study on Betfair years ago. Key is knowing the connections that have above average strike rates with steamers and like wise with drifters.
 

Jackform

Gelding
Not too many selections by this approach north of the border today

Musselburgh (going forecast soft) Market odds shown around 09.50

1.45 Simone 11/8, Autumn Surprise 7/1
2.55 Tomorrow's Legend 4/1
4.00 I'm To Blame 11/8, Forewarning 5/1
 

Jackform

Gelding
The layers are not taking many chances with the odds currently on offer at Ascot :(

Ascot (going forecast soft with some GS)

12.40 Nayati 8/11
1.15 Drumcliff 5/2
1.50 La Baguue Au Roi 10/11
3.00 Guitar Pete 11/4
3.35 Un De Sceaux 2/5
 

Chesham

Sire
In the 12.55 Haydcock Joke Dance appears to be one that the BF Layers are taking on to get beat, trading at 2.2 Times it’s implied odds
 

ARAZI91

Gelding
In the 12.55 Haydcock Joke Dance appears to be one that the BF Layers are taking on to get beat, trading at 2.2 Times it’s implied odds
yes , think the solid support for the next four in the market swung their view here , but Joke Dancer battled on well to edge ahead at the death.
Still unexposed and obviously likes heavy ground , wont go up too much in the ratings for this. Progeny of Authorised do well at this age over hurdles (18%) but generally don't progress much as they get older.
 

Jackform

Gelding
Given my record on the AW I wouldn't give much credence to these today, except it's not really me it's a system :whistle:.

Chelmsford (going forecast standard) Odds shown market around 10.45.

1.25 I Was Only Joking 6/1
1.55 Captain Bob 8/1
2.25 Stosur 11/4
2.55 Hard Toffee 5/1
3.25 Nurse Nightingale 5/2
 
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