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Proven Form and the Market

Jackform

Gelding
New year new approach, in a free market the market always comes out best in the end :D. So these selections have form and are being supported.

Kempton (going forecast soft some GS) Market odds around 10.15

12.20 Redicean 8/11, Kapdad 5/2
12.55 Secret Investor 5/4
1.30 Mercian Prince 9/4, Breath Of Blighty 7/2
2.05 Waiting Patiently 13/8
3.45 One for Billy 5/1

P.S. I had another try at the 2.40 where I thought the layers margin would probably be too much.

William Henry 13/2 (market 11.45) a possible each-way shot.
 
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markfinn

Sire
New year new approach, in a free market the market always comes out best in the end :D. So these selections have form and are being supported.

Kempton (going forecast soft some GS) Market odds around 10.15

12.20 Redicean 8/11, Kapdad 5/2
12.55 Secret Investor 5/4
1.30 Mercian Prince 9/4, Breath Of Blighty 7/2
2.05 Waiting Patiently 13/8
3.45 One for Billy 5/1

P.S. I had another try at the 2.40 where I thought the layers margin would probably be too much.

William Henry 13/2 (market 11.45) a possible each-way shot.
Happy new year Jack - I was wondering where you had been
 

Jackform

Gelding
markfinn markfinn, I like to discuss ideas and it seldom happens so I wander off seeking somebody who wants to chat :).
I can post lists of selections till the cows come home but it's not very interesting. Anyway, I don't wish to do that as the layers will soon cotton on if I do well and will can me :cry:.

Kelso (going forecast soft) Odds shown are market around 10.05.
12.40 Coole Hall 4/9 (Shepherd's Bight from the in form JM Jefferson yard is a speculative each-way shot were the distance could suit and he has withdrawn his other runner Rowdy Robin with B Hughes up).
1.10 Clondaw Castle 6/5, Some Reign 5/1
2.15 Ramonex 11/4
3.15 Bernadelli

Southwell (going forecast standard)
2.25 Rosina 7/2
 
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markfinn

Sire
markfinn markfinn, I like to discuss ideas and it seldom happens so I wander off seeking somebody who wants to chat :).
I can post lists of selections till the cows come home but it's not very interesting. Anyway, I don't wish to do that as the layers will soon cotton on if I do well and will can me :cry:.

Kelso (going forecast soft) Odds shown are market around 10.05.
12.40 Coole Hall 4/9 (Shepherd's Bight from the in form JM Jefferson yard is a speculative each-way shot were the distance could suit and he has withdrawn his other runner Rowdy Robin with B Hughes up).
1.10 Clondaw Castle 6/5, Some Reign 5/1
2.15 Ramonex 11/4
3.15 Bernadelli

Southwell (going forecast standard)
2.25 Rosina 7/2

you can always chat to me
 

Jackform

Gelding
markfinn markfinn, going off topic just to show you what I mean. Value - now that's a controversial topic that could be debated for ever and usually divides into those for and those against. By value I mean value for money when betting. Is it possible to know before the race has been run based on past performance? Logic says no and the layers, tipsters etc it is just conjecture about the future, although the layers have a pretty good stab at it.
Let me do a race today.

Kelso 3.45 a hunter chase class 5 on soft over 23f with 5 runners.

Column Headings: Market 11.15 with 109% overround, RP forecast fair odds no advantage, my ratings fair odds no advantage

1. 15/2 - 13/2*- 4/1* Al Co (13/2 won)
2. 2/1 - 7/4*- 2/1 Cultram Abbey (5/4 2nd)
3. 5/4*- 7/4 - 2/1 Vivaldi Collonges
4. 11/1 - 16/1 - 80/1 Winged Crusader
5. 8/1 - 11/1 - 7/1* Thomond

Comment: Vivaldi Collonges the probable fav currently not value by RP forecast and me - not to say it won't win. Cultram Abbey could be value by RP forecast but not me. Al Co looks value by the forecast and me. Thomond could be value by me. Winged Crusader is out with the washing and the layers are having a laugh with their current odds. It's all a matter of opinion until the race is run and I didn't select anything in my previous post.
 
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runnerjp

Gelding
Jackform Jackform - totally agree with you there. Value is not a fact but opinion. A horse wins its race - that is a fact, but the horse won at 5/1 - now the race has been run we can 100% say the 5/1 was value as it won but pre race we wouldn't know - as you suggested everyone will have their own opinions on the value of the race.

I suppose what your trying to say is value will always be what YOU think and no1 else - much like a rating (I think)
 

pete

Dam
There has to be a point ... Even if the horse wins. Where the value (price) is no longer worth the risk.

Only you can decide what that price is.

How do you decide if or when you would bet in the above Jackform Jackform ? At some point in the day ... All runners could be value.

Are you waiting for just one horse to become value, or will you back multiple?
 
Jackform Jackform
Its all subjective and personal to the individual. The other day I put up Tommy the rascal who at the time was 22/1 as a tentative selection. The runners all had negatives to ponder and I concluded Tommy was worth the punt at those odds. On course first show was 17/2 which I then decided wasn't value to win the race but was for a place. The race was the Common Race of the day and as such I tried to work my way through the runners to find a bet if possible that represented value to my eyes.
Yesterday's Common Race was The Lanzarote in which I decided William Henry had a question to answer after a botched chasing debut and so I decided to swerve him as his odds were cramped. I ended up backing 3 and got second and third but my main bet pulled up. River Frost was the beast and I decided even after a lay off its form was good enough at 8/1 to warrant my wager. As I say all subjective and personal. There were plenty on here who backed the winner so there thought process differed from mine.
Nice to see you back posting again. :handgestures-thumbup:
 

mlmrob

Sire
Cultram Abbey could be value by RP forecast but not me.


I saw Cultrum Abbey hack up at Alnwick in a race sponsored by Nicky Richards. His time was 8 seconds slower than Winged Crusader but Cultrum wasn't even extended. This race is a target race for Cultrum Abbey as he needs to win this or finish second to qualify for the Foxhunters.
 

markfinn

Sire
Value is subjective - we all have our own ideas - some can see value at high odds shots - Ok I will not argue with that if you book shows a 90% advantage over the market against your own ratings ( lets hope they are good) I can see a a case where such a bet could be struck but the reality is races are generally closely framed and for ME the value or min price has to be related directly to % chance

Current Odds Checker market

1515935164710.png
Rules out a dutch bet - and Mirsalle 20/1 ? would be great bet for me
 

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Jackform

Gelding
pete pete, perhaps I gave the wrong impression as I wasn't expecting any reaction just chatting to markfinn :party: and everybody joined in. Anyway, I don't look for value odds as such these days but try instead for a high strike-rate instead.
Thanks for all the response - it's b*ggered up my thread :D.
 

mick

Sire
Value is not a fact but opinion.
This for me ,we have to respect the proven accuracy of the front of the market but this is also the area where the majority of backers play and the majority of backers (98%) will not produce long term gains.The other aspect i use to advantage is that a market drift is not always a negative to chance, indeed it can often prove an increased value opportunity.:)
 

Jackform

Gelding
markfinn markfinn, well done with your selection yesterday. I admire your expertise with the technology (all those lovely colours) as I am still just a pen and paper merchant :crazy:.

Swerved Ayr owing to the forecast heavy going.

Plumpton (going forecast soft with some good to soft) Odds shown are market around 09.50.

1.25 Lisp 2/1
2.00 What's Up Rory 3/1, Brother bennett 4/1
2.30 Ballyheigue Bay 10/3
3.05 Morney Wing 3/1
3.40 Brianstorm 6/4
 

Jackform

Gelding
Hereford is not a favourite track of mine as they never seem to be able to put together a good class card, but with the current state of the going needs must :).

Hereford (going forecast soft with some GS) Odds shown are market around 09.25
12.20 Cosy Club 9/2
12.50 Rock My Style 9/4
1.25 Carole's Vigilante 4/9 (somebody queried how to bet them. I wouldn't back odds-on, but I wouldn't bet against them)
2.00 Baron Du Plessis 3/1
 

Jackform

Gelding
Newbury (going forecast soft) Market odds shown around 10.40.

1.20 Percy Street 4/1
1.50 OK Corral 4/5, Whatswrongwithyou 7/4
2.25 Saint Calvados 11/8, Tree Of Liberty 5/2
3.00 Horatio Hornblower 13/2
3.30 Lady Of Lamanver 7/2, Just A Thought 7/1
4.05 Baddesley Knight 4/1, Black Lightning 13/2
 
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