My reality is a near 80yo brain & memory that’s slowing up. I can no longer hold horse’s profiles in my head as I did with 2yos in the 1960s. In fact I can still see my speed rating for Charlottown deb run of 111 at sandown which with my improvement pars for that course/distance would at least place him in the next year’s Derby. I had already taken a shine to Pretendre for that race and remember having to stop myself from liking a horse and focusing on the data. I was amazed that figures worked out so well for top class horses and not surprised that there was not much between them in a close finish in the 1966? Derby, C just beat P and backed both ew.
But I can’t give you same info for any horse I checked out last week. Being partly computerised hasn’t helped. More tactile in the old days with paper and pencil, perhaps I had to remember detail then.
Anyway needs must and my current priority is to use my recent discovery of more excel functions that will automate more of the plumbing to flag suspect ratings and trainers gaming the OH etc.
This would reduce the scope of a couple of judgements needed e.g. best PP selection/pedigree data to base current race’s rating predictions on re necessary adjustments for different race conditions. I’ve written up the macros and routines and listed the ‘tells’/interpretations that various data suggest (not as many as Mick’s). Then I can pass all on to my grandchildren. I’ve already taken them to Haydock Park to see real racehorses close up. Their eyes were out on stalks; different from their competition showjumping ponies.
On the money side, my return on time spent on horserace betting is insignificant compared to that from business consultancy (six figures). Although the skills gained from my racing data laboratory contributed greatly to the business problem solving, as I had planned it from the very start. Each activity contributed to each other, more so as the years went on (e.g. focusing more on people – motives and dodges - than horses on the racing side). And it was really helpful when a client was into horseracing – instant cred.
It seems odd to me that I'm risk averse when my profession is risk/reward estimation. I got to betting more than a week's salary on a 2yo race, but always then played the insurance game, covering more than one horse in a race. That's like splitting your normal one point stake on the race into parts. Significantly reduces the losing run. Mixing up top and second top rated horse in a couple of ew patents. The most extreme case was 4x4 ew doubles Stewards Cup and then the following 3yo hcp; Sky Diver was the first back-back winner in Stewards Cup - Peter O'Sullivan said the horse doesn't know that and history should not come into it - 33/1 and 10/1 winner of the 3yo hcp. It was nice to see the insurance approach work, lots of placed doubles as well as the win double, but I didn't feel at all chuffed at the time.
I note Pawras (hi there) point about prices. Since moving into ‘gaming’ territory in 2 yo and 3yo grade 5 and 6 hcps and finding tells on deceitful placing (entries) and running (pace), the SR is down a bit but the extra win odds more than compensate (that’s at ISP). I used to consider 10/1 ISP as outsider country, but now need over 8/1 to feel chuffed.
But I can’t give you same info for any horse I checked out last week. Being partly computerised hasn’t helped. More tactile in the old days with paper and pencil, perhaps I had to remember detail then.
Anyway needs must and my current priority is to use my recent discovery of more excel functions that will automate more of the plumbing to flag suspect ratings and trainers gaming the OH etc.
This would reduce the scope of a couple of judgements needed e.g. best PP selection/pedigree data to base current race’s rating predictions on re necessary adjustments for different race conditions. I’ve written up the macros and routines and listed the ‘tells’/interpretations that various data suggest (not as many as Mick’s). Then I can pass all on to my grandchildren. I’ve already taken them to Haydock Park to see real racehorses close up. Their eyes were out on stalks; different from their competition showjumping ponies.
On the money side, my return on time spent on horserace betting is insignificant compared to that from business consultancy (six figures). Although the skills gained from my racing data laboratory contributed greatly to the business problem solving, as I had planned it from the very start. Each activity contributed to each other, more so as the years went on (e.g. focusing more on people – motives and dodges - than horses on the racing side). And it was really helpful when a client was into horseracing – instant cred.
It seems odd to me that I'm risk averse when my profession is risk/reward estimation. I got to betting more than a week's salary on a 2yo race, but always then played the insurance game, covering more than one horse in a race. That's like splitting your normal one point stake on the race into parts. Significantly reduces the losing run. Mixing up top and second top rated horse in a couple of ew patents. The most extreme case was 4x4 ew doubles Stewards Cup and then the following 3yo hcp; Sky Diver was the first back-back winner in Stewards Cup - Peter O'Sullivan said the horse doesn't know that and history should not come into it - 33/1 and 10/1 winner of the 3yo hcp. It was nice to see the insurance approach work, lots of placed doubles as well as the win double, but I didn't feel at all chuffed at the time.
I note Pawras (hi there) point about prices. Since moving into ‘gaming’ territory in 2 yo and 3yo grade 5 and 6 hcps and finding tells on deceitful placing (entries) and running (pace), the SR is down a bit but the extra win odds more than compensate (that’s at ISP). I used to consider 10/1 ISP as outsider country, but now need over 8/1 to feel chuffed.
