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Pick 4 system

I 'm new to this.
I know how to make winpot systems and sometimes they win.
Maybe the logic of the placepot is different.

My notation is this :

a / b / c / d (one line, the saddle numbers a, b, c and d)
a / b / c / d-e (two lines, the saddle numbers a, b, c in the first three races and d or e in the fourth)

Simlarly a / b / c-d / e-f is a sub-system of 4 lines, a / b-c-d / e-f / g-h is a subsystem of 12 lines).

For today's Newmarket I had:

4 / 4 / 3 / 7-1-4-8-9-5-3
4 / 4 / 5 / 7-1-4-8-9-5
4 / 4 / 1 / 7-1
4 / 4 / 6 / 7
4 / 11-1 / 3 / 7
7-5 / 4 / 3 / 7

Those are twenty lines condensed in 6 sub-systems. In the 3d race the no 3 was declared a non-runner, counted as the 5 (Buick's horse), I believe.
The system loses.

I want to publish some of those to see what happens, or if you have in mind some alternative technique please say.
A little later I will publish for tomorrow's (6/8), Ascot and Haydock.
 
What happens is I have the horses in each of the races sorted in some order of mine.
One could also use the ordering of the favourites resulting from the early prices.
Then I give to a computer program the instruction to compute the 20 likeliest lines.
Then condense them into full perms for simplification's sake.

To understand my logic suppose there are two races, each with 4 runners:

The first one is:

1 BISMARCK, win probability = 45%
2 TIRPITZ, win probability = 30%
3 SCHARNHORST, win probability = 20%
4 GNEISENAU, win probability = 5%

Ths second one is:

1 YAM YAM, win probability = 35%
2 PIP BO, win probability = 30%
3 PITI SING, win probability = 25%
4 KO KO, win probability = 10%

There are 16 doubles with probabilities as follows:

1/1 = 0.45 x 0.35 = 0.1575 = 15.75%
1/2 = 0.45 x 0.30 = 0.1350 = 13.50%
1/3 = 0.45 x 0.25 = 0.1125 = 11.25%
1/4 = 0.45 x 0.10 = 0.0450 = 4.50%
2/1 = 0.30 x 0.35 = 0.1050 = 10.50%
2/2 = 0.30 x 0.30 = 0.0900 = 9.00%
2/3 = 0.30 x 0.25 = 0.0750 = 7.50%
2/4 = 0.30 x 0.10 = 0.0300 = 3.00%
3/1 = 0.20 x 0.35 = 0.0700 = 7.00%
3/2 = 0.20 x 0.30 = 0.0600 = 6.00%
3/3 = 0.20 x 0.25 = 0.0500 = 5.00%
3/4 = 0.20 x 0.10 = 0.0200 = 2.00%
4/1 = 0.05 x 0.35 = 0.0175 = 1.75%
4/2 = 0.05 x 0.30 = 0.0150 = 1.50%
4/3 = 0.05 x 0.25 = 0.0125 = 1.25%
4/4 = 0.05 x 0.10 = 0.0050 = 0.50%

When those are sorted in descending order I get:

1/1 = 15.75%
1/2 = 13.50%
1/3 = 11.25%
2/1 = 10.50%
2/2 = 9.00%
2/3 = 7.50%
3/1 = 7.00%
3/2 = 6.00%
3/3 = 5.00%
1/4 = 4.50%
2/4 = 3.00%
3/4 = 2.00%
4/1 = 1.75%
4/2 = 1.50%
4/3 = 1.25%
4/4 = 0.50%

So if I want the five likeliest, those are 1/1, 1/2, 1/3, 2/1 and 2/2.

This principle can be expanded to 3, 4, 5, 6 ... races and the minimax algorithm does it quite fast.
 
Ascot 6/8

4-2 / 10-4 / 1-2 / 8-4
2 / 10 / 2 / 4
2 / 4 / 1 / 4
2 / 4 / 2 / 8
1 / 10 / 1 / 8-4
1 / 10 / 2 / 8
1 / 4 / 1-2 / 8

20 lines, 7 plays



Haydock 6/8

6 / 1 / 6 / 1-2-4-8
6 / 1 / 3 / 1-2-4
6 / 1 / 4 / 1-2
6 / 5 / 6-3 / 1-2
6 / 6 / 6 / 1-2
8 / 1 / 6 / 1-2-4
8 / 1 / 3 / 1-2

20 lines, 7 plays
 
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Larry

Gelding
I used to do a complicated placepot perm that most bookies couldn't get their heads round @cosmicsports your one makes mine seem relatively simple, I honestly cant understand it at all, todays one to my untrained eye has only 5 lines when a placepot is always 6 lines:confused: best of luck with it but you've lost me mate
Larry
 
I used to do a complicated placepot perm that most bookies couldn't get their heads round @cosmicsports your one makes mine seem relatively simple, I honestly cant understand it at all, todays one to my untrained eye has only 5 lines when a placepot is always 6 lines:confused: best of luck with it but you've lost me mate
Larry
Well first it's pick-4 placepot not six.
I went for pick-4 for the purposes of this thread because it's easier, pick-6 is more of a wait game.
I want us to study certain issues.
Never mind the logic, although I think it's relatively clear from what I wrote.
The end result is those 5 systems you see. In today's Chelm it is the 4th-5th-6th-7th races.

Now if it was win-pot then the logic -for what it's worth- is like I described. There can be no other logic.
In placepot maybe there is a snag and has to be located. I don't know, as I said I 've been doing winpot systems since 1998 but placepot was introduced to us only recently. So the purpose of the thread is to study the placepot.

Let me check what yesterday's systems did ...

Ascot misses the 3d, Haydock misses the 1st.
I did not check for any mysterious transfers.
Not so good.
 
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dlinbgrove

Gelding
:confused:

I think I follow what you are doing but you are confusing everyone by having a thread with "Placepot" in the title when you are not picking Placepots.

A Placepot is a bet in the first six races at any particular meeting. Bets with selections from only four races are not Placepots.
 
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dlinbgrove said

:confused:

I think I follow what you are doing but you are confusing everyone by having a thread with "Placepot" in the title when you are not picking Placepots.

A Placepot is a bet in the first six races at any particular meeting. Bets with selections from only four races are not Placepots.
Dlinbgrove, my program for today says "score place 4" and "score place 6".
Also "score 4" and "score 6" for winners, from Turffontein.
Actually have I got Chelmsford right ? I understood it's the 4th-5th-6th and 7th, but I don't see the word "score" now. Only that 4th-5th-6th and 7th are featured for broadcasting.
Anyway what is a proper name for the thread, to correct it ?
 
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dlinbgrove

Gelding
I'd go for Parimutuel Betting, which is what the Tote on the UK offers and includes Pick4 Placepot Jackpot etc.
 
Ok. Pick 4 then.
Can the mod change it please ?
Pick 6 is the same thing really but pick 4's fortunes are easier to follow.
Also please what is the best site to follow it ?
Thetote.com ?
RP is hopeless to follow the pick-4, pick-6.
 
Ok I think I got it re. results.
For the 5/8 Nmkt the winning lines as published are:

6 / 1-2-4-8 / 1-4-9 / 1-2-3-7

In the first race four were left so only one winning selection, the race winner, the no 6.
In the second race 1-4-8 placed, 2 is a non-runner but as one of the 1-4-8 was the race favourite, the 2 is transferred succesfully if you had it in your ticket.
In the third race 1-4-9 placed, there was a non runner, the no 2, but the transfer was unsuccesful (none of the 1-4-9 was the race favourite).
In the fourth race 1-3 placed, both 2-7 are non runners but the transfers are succesful because the no 1 was the race favourite.

So that describes it.
The dividend in euros was 78.60.

I got this from opap.gr. Perhaps you know of some other.
 
Today's Chelmsford has a winning line, the third system, 3-4-3-5.
If true that is, because I said the races were the 4th-5th-6th-7th (but maybe they were the 3d-4th-5th-6th).
 
08/08/2016

Wolverhampton A.W. (3d-4th-5th-6th races)

4 / 4 / 6 / 4-7-5
4 / 4 / 3-1-5 / 4
4 / 1 / 6 / 4-7-5
4 / 1 / 3 / 4
4 / 2 / 6 / 4-7-5
4 / 5-3 / 6 / 4
1-5 / 4-1 / 6 / 4
3 / 4 / 6 / 4

Windsor (3d-4th-5th-6th races)

4 / 1 / 5 / 1-4-3
4 / 1 / 6 / 1-4
4 / 1 / 4-3 / 1
4 / 3 / 5 / 1-4
4 / 3 / 6-4 / 1
4 / 4-6-2 / 5 / 1
5 / 1 / 5 / 1-4
5 / 1 / 6 / 1
5 / 3 / 5 / 1
3-2 / 1 / 5 / 1
 
3 winning lines in the Windsor systems, 150.10 euros.
Thirsk-Nottingham and Lingfield for tomorrow in a while.


A word about probabilities.
I work out the probabilities from a weighted average of internet tips.
One could use the early market prices. If you use the early market prices then the probability is inversely proportional to the price.

The ordering I make is theoretically the quickest way to find a winning line.
Suppose I know the results and you don't.
I 'm asking you to write down a line and pass it to me.
If correct I answer "yes", if not correct I answer "no, give me another one", until you find it.
Your best strategy is to follow the probability order.

Probability in horse racing is not something precise.
It's not like having a specific quantity of red-black-white balls in a jar and draw from them.
Everybody has his own method.
So if you know the races better than I do, you beat me, but once one submits one's case, then the statistical law cannot be changed and we have to follow.
 
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09/08/2016

Lingfield (3d-4th-5th-6th races)

3 / 4 / 4 / 6-2-1
3 / 4 / 1 / 6-2
3 / 4 / 3 / 6
3 / 3 / 4 / 6-2-1
3 / 3 / 1 / 6-2
3 / 3 / 3 / 6
1 / 4 / 4 / 6-2
1 / 4 / 1 / 6
1 / 3 / 4-1 / 6
2 / 4 / 4-1 / 6
2 / 3 / 4 / 6

Nottingham (3d-4th-5th-6th races)

8 / 2 / 8-4 / 2-1
8 / 2 / 3 / 2
8 / 1 / 8-4 / 2-1
4-3 / 2-1 / 8-4 / 2-1

Thirsk (3d-4th-5th-6th races)

2 / 7 / 3 / 1-5-2-6
2 / 7 / 5 / 1
2 / 1 / 3 / 1-5
2 / 1 / 5 / 1
2 / 5-15-4-2-3-16 / 3 / 1
9 / 7 / 3 / 1-5
9 / 7 / 5 / 1
9 / 1 / 3 / 1
7-11 / 7 / 3 / 1
 
Tomorrow with Salisbury-Kempton AW I conclude this phase of the pick-4 experiment.
If I come up with something newer I will resume.
Feel free however to write me your questions-observations-suggestions.
 
10/08/2016

Kempton AW (3d-4th-5th-6th races)

1 / 2 / 9-3 / 6-9
1 / 2 / 8 / 6
1 / 9 / 9-3 / 6-9
1 / 9 / 8 / 6
1 / 10 / 9 / 6
2 / 2 / 9 / 6-9
2 / 2 / 3-8 / 6
2 / 9 / 9-3-8 / 6
3 / 2-9 / 9 / 6

Salisbury (3d-4th-5th-6th races)

1 / 2 / 9 / 6-9-2
1 / 2 / 3-8 / 6-9
1 / 9 / 9-3 / 6-9
1 / 9 / 8 / 6
2 / 2 / 9 / 6-9
2 / 2 / 3-8 / 6
2 / 9 / 9-3-8 / 6
3 / 2 / 9 / 6

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Results from 5/8 to 9/8:

Cost = 140, Returns = 453.40
The Newmarket systems of the 5th/8 count (posted here after the races but lost).
The Chelmsford systems of the 7th/8 do not count (won but they were the wrong races).
 
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hello @cosmicsports. i love the placepot and enjoyed reading this thread.
a few questions and observations. i tend to concentrate on the BF top 5 or 6 ranking around about 11.00am and also check Oddschecker . what internet tipsters do you use and how do you get the weighted average ?
however , if we just use the top 2 in the market we tend to find that most placepotters are selecting these and if those horses are successful the dividend is poor .
what sort of Computer program do you use to throw up your Perms ? i use Exotabet but i am not convinced perming loads of single lines is any good ?
it has been hard this flat Season to land on a good dividend because the maiden races usually end up with the Favs at least placing if not winning .
please keep posting !!
 
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