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PAUL STEELE POWER RATINGS.

Delboy99

Colt
..... A good number of years ago I was lucky enough to be able to purchase a book on football and betting statistics written by Paul Steele circa the year 2000 and appropriately named as "The Essential Football Betting Guide". Inside there was a wealth of knowledge and well worth the £16.95 paid at that point in time. There were many interesting chapters but the really big one that caught my eye was Chapter Three on System Studies. Inside this section Paul embraced twelve different systems all of them being worthy of the strictest attention. Being something of a "Systemite" myself, naturally I was particularly interested in System Eleven which was deemed as The Jewel In The Crown and which was placed number one system after rigorous testing of all the twelve systems. This system was aptly named "POWER RATINGS". The author had allotted each team 10.000 points at the commencement of each new season and new ratings were obtained as each match was played. The first match was simple the goal difference multiplied by a pre determined adjuster and the calculated adjustment added or subtracted from the initial 10 points to arrive at a new rating and ready for the next match. After the first match and for each subsequent match played thereafter, the formula for each new rating became Goal Difference - Difference in Ratings + Home Advantage x Adjuster, the latter two figures being pre determined by the user prior to initial commencement. I am therefore in the process of compiling Weekly Ratings for the English Premiership and the Championship and these will be duly displayed very shortly as a matter of interest and hopefully as a guideline to pinpointing all "the good things" in those two divisions. I apologize if anyone thinks it a load of garbage or whether indeed it has been unsuccessfully tried previously, but I'd really like to give it a try and see where we go from here. First ratings probably be up tomorrow sometime. Cheers. :handgestures-thumbup:
 

Delboy99

Colt
..... many thanks to you too FS. Was totally unaware that you too were involved with past rating systems. Is your thread still alive here in the archives? ;)
 

Delboy99

Colt
..... OK here are the first batch of Power Ratings after four matches in the EPL as described by the method highlighted above:-

Liverpool 10.992 v Newcastle U 9.583 1.409 1
Brighton & H A 9.504 v Burnley 9.895 -0.391 X2
Man U 10.255 v Leicester C 10.310 -.055 X
Sheffield U 9.806 v Southampton T 9.937 -.131 X
Tottenham H 10.200 v Crystal P 10.329 -.129 X
Wolves 9.900 v Chelsea 9.705 .195 X1
Norwich C 9.475 v Man C 11.140 -1.665 2
Bournemouth 9.696 v Everton 9.889 -.193 X2
Watford 9.368 v Arsenal 10.040 -.672 2
Aston V 9.769 v West Ham U 10.019 -.250 X2

The prediction element is still in the experimental stage until a few games have been played and I have a few more guidelines, but the ratings are correct according to the workings. Championship will follow in due course. ;)
 
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footysystems

Gelding
Had a few goes had software made and so on spent a lot of time on it but was unable to crack the correct combination as I had millions of combos I could put through the software which no longer works.

 

Delboy99

Colt
....... still working on the Championship Ratings and hope to get them up here prior to the weekend matches. Currently I have little desire to go beyond that, but who knows what the needs may be. :eek:
 

MrDamon

Colt
I did try something similar years ago with a ratings system that resembled the ELO ranking system..

On it's own as a bare bones home versus away, with a higher percentage of the bank donated to the kitty from the home team to allow for the home advantage, it had varying results.. it did not turn a consistent profit but it did not loose more than a few points per year either..

My testing did not start until i think the halfway point in each league though..

It's always been on my todo list to incorporate more than just the score result into the rankings..

Good luck with this (y)
 

Delboy99

Colt
.... thanks MrDamon and good of you to call in to my humble abode. I don't believe in using too many stats to find ratings, besides there is a heap of work just trying to keep pace. Busy currently with the English Championship, half way through at the moment and a race to get them up before kick off tomorrow. I used to dabble also with ELO rankings and used to work them out like the chess formula. There is a very good site clubelo which has a bundle of Elo ratings already worked out for you, so nothing to do there. Good luck with your endeavours and do call back. :handgestures-thumbup:
 

Delboy99

Colt
...... OK here we are with the first set of ratings after six matches for the English Championship:-

Fulham 10.446 v W.B.A. 10.231 0.215 1X
Blackburn R 9.835 v Millwall 9.776 0.059 X
Charlton A 10.115 v Birmingham C 9.707 0.408 1
Hull C 9.646 v Wigan A 9.239 0.407 1
Middlesbrough 9.875 v Reading 10.622 -0.747 2
Preston N.E. 10.455 v Brentford 10.250 0.205 1X
Q.P.R. 10.005 v Luton T 10.037 -0.032 X
Stoke C 9.208 v Bristol C 10.342 - 1.134 2
Swansea C 10.916 v Notts F 10.493 0.423 1
Huddersfield T 9.440 v Sheffield W 10.034 - 0.594 2
Barnsley 9.426 v Leeds U 10.586 - 1.160 2

Played Tonight:-
Derby Co. 9.573 v Cardiff C -.267 2X

...... hope that this provides a little interest and we will see just what Paul Steels Power Ratings of yesteryear bring us over the weekend. :eek:
 

Delboy99

Colt
..... well the weekend saw lift off for the Paul Steele Power Ratings and I saw no signs of a big cigar. :eek: I suppose it is early days as yet so maybe wiser to reserve judgement until a later date. I am still waiting of a result for the Aston Villa v West Ham match played tonight, so ratings for the EPL will probably be up nice and early tomorrow night. Meanwhile as there is nothing stopping me, I thought that I may as well put up the Championship ratings here and now, just in case there is someone keen enough out there to want to view and study. Certainly no obligation for anyone to view, it is just a matter of interest in a system which goes way back to around 2000 sometime I believe. Without further ado:-

Leeds U 10.722 v Derby Co. 9.575 1.147 1
Birmingham C 9.914 v Preston N.E. 10.648 -.734 2
Brentford 10.057 v Stoke C 9.194 .863 1
Bristol C 10.357 v Swansea C 10.707 -.350 2
Cardiff C 9.838 v Middlesbrough 10.062 -.224 2X
Luton T 9.939 v Hull C 9.564 .375 1
Millwall 9.815 v Q.P.R. 10.103 -.288 2
Notts F 10.702 v Barnsley 9.290 1.412 1
Reading 10.435 v Blackburn R 9.796 .639 1
Sheffield W 10.241 v Fulham 10.388 .147 X
Wigan A 9.321 v Charlton A 9.908 -.587 2
W.B.A 10.289 v Huddersfield T 9.233 1.056 1

That's it for this week, may the sun shine down and provide similar results on Saturday.:)
 

Delboy99

Colt
..... as promised and after the Aston Villa match I have all the data to hand to complete this weekend's Ratings:-

Southampton T 10.007 v Bournemouth 9.939 .068 X
Leicester C 10.209 v Tottenham H 10.685 -.476 2
Burnley 9.877 v Norwich C 9.777 .100 1X
Everton 9.646 v Sheffield U 9.666 -.020 X
Manchester C 10.838 v Watford 9.421 1.417 1
Newcastle U 9.540 v Brighton & H A 9.522 .018 X
Crystal P 9.844 v Wolves 9.469 .375 1
West Ham U 10.019 v Manchester U 10.356 -.337 2
Arsenal 9.987 v Aston V 9.769 .218 1
Chelsea 10.136 v Liverpool 11.035 -.899 2

On the face of it the predictions look quite reasonable but there always seems to be something which puts a spanner in the works! ;)
 

Delboy99

Colt
..... looks to me as if the Chelsea v Liverpool match could be very interesting. Given the away differential rating one would instantly expect the Merseysiders to walk away with this match. However I feel that this will not be as straight forward as it appears on paper, could be tighter that the ratings suggest. Maybe The Reds may just have the edge methinks. ;)
 

Delboy99

Colt
...... after collating and examining all the ratings and results for this weekend, I am actually a little happier with the outcome. As expected above the Chelsea v Liverpool match was as tight as I thought it may be but it did end with the correct predicted result. For the EPL there were 5 correct from 10 whilst the Championship showed 5 wins and 7 losses, so all in all not too bad considering the early season number of games played to date. Although I failed to show my bet, I took a small treble from the ratings Notts F, W.B.A and Arsenal and all three came home which cheered me up a little, so gained some comfort at the end of the day. Back later to provide the next batch for further entertainment.:)
 

Delboy99

Colt
..... OK a brand new football week dawneth and I have a new set of Power Ratings to display, so without further ado I will set them out below along with anticipated predictions:-

PREMIER LEAGUE.
Sheffield U 9.945 v Liverpool 11.079 -1.134 2
Aston V 9.702 v Burnley 10.083 -.381 2
Bournemouth 10.238 v West Ham U 10.280 -.042 X
Chelsea 10.092 Brighton & H A 9.555 .537 1
Crystal P 9.766 v Norwich C 9.571 .195 1X
Tottenham H 10.532 v Southampton T 9.779 .753 1
Wolves 9.547 v Watford 8.629 .918 1
Everton 9.367 v Manchester C 11.630 -2.263 2
Leicester C 10.362 v Newcastle U 9.507 .855 1
Manchester U 10.095 v Arsenal 10.054 .041 X

CHAMPIONSHIP.
Fulham 10.401 v Wigan A 9.613 .788 1
Stoke C 9.333 v Notts F 10.619 -1.286 2
Q.P.R. 10.223 v W.B.A. 10.376 -.153 X
Blackburn R 10.032 v Luton T 9.486 .546 1
Charlton A 9.616 v Leeds U 10.547 -.931 2
Derby Co. 9.750 v Birmingham C 9.850 -.100 X
Huddersfield T 9.146 v Millwall 9.695 -.549 2
Hull C 10.017 v Cardiff C 9.960 .057 X
Middlesbrough 9.940 v Sheffield W 10.228 -.288 2X
Preston N.E. 10.713 Bristol C 10.370 .343 1
Swansea C 10.694 v Reading 10.199 .495 1
Barnsley 9.373 v Brentford 9.918 -.545 2

.... looks like a few decent games there. I think the Man U v Arsenal fixture looks a plum affair with tight ratings. The system really is based on goals and take a look at the huge lift Manchester City got with their 8-0 thrashing of Watford last week, gone through the ceiling! :handgestures-thumbup:
 

Delboy99

Colt
...... had a nice little treble last week taken from these Power Ratings although I never got it down here in Black and White. So I have gone for a five time acca in the EPL :- Liverpool, Man C, Tottenham H,Leicester C and Chelsea @ 5.21. Also a treble on the Championship and taken :- Fulham, Blackburn R and Swansea C @ 4.64. Nothing huge staked but hoping for a winning run. :eek:
 
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