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    AR

Over 2.5

Footy Trader

Footy Trader

Yearling
Hi,

Just joined the site. I would love to be a pro tipster one day.

I plan on posting tips here and for you all to see.

A bit about myself:-

I love betting on the overs market. I've done well for the last 6 years or so and now wish to share.

My average PL per month is 11 pts, average yield is 12%, average odds are 2.10 and average hit rate of 54%.

I'm gonna start a fresh 100 pt bank and risk 1 pt per bet. Feel free to follow me.

I'll hopefully get the selections up the day before the match.

Feel free to comment.


Dave
 
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OK.... here goes......

Sunday 18/08/19 Selections:-

11:00 Japan J League G Osaka v Iwata

14:00 Sweden Allsvenskan Sirius v Norrkoping

14:00 Sweden Superettan Dalkurd v GAIS

14:00 Poland Ekstraklasa Piast Gliwice v Plock

14:30 Russia Premier Ufa v FK Rostov

16:00 Portugal Segunda FC Porto B v Varzim

16:30 Poland Ekstraklasa Legia v Zaglebie


Will post results later.
 
Good luck with this Dave.....hope it goes well !!

I love the 2.5 overs market....
Straight forward staking plan too.......good to see.

75831

Relatively tight odds for betting outright, but matches probably not good for trading / cashing out in-play.

A bit odd to see so much money situated 2/3 ticks either side of the mid....

What bookies do you use for your bets?...…...And what odds have you taken?
 
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retriever said:
Good luck with this Dave.....hope it goes well !!

I love the 2.5 overs market....
Straight forward staking plan too.......good to see.

View attachment 75831

Relatively tight odds for betting outright, but matches probably not good for trading / cashing out in-play.

What bookies do you use for your bets? And what odds have you taken?
Click to expand...


Hi Retriever,

Thanks for the support.

I generally use Betfair Exchange and I set up software to place the bet 1 minute before KO.

When I don't use Betfair I usually go to Marathonbet, or occasionally B365.

When I update the results they will be after commission has been paid.
 
retriever said:
That's good......I prefer Betfair.....thanks fo that......Good luck
I sure paulb164 paulb164 may be interested in this too.....if he hasn't already seen this.
Click to expand...

Well hopefully all goes to plan....

End of the day I'm in it for the long haul. Like I said in my first post, I've been running with this for over 6 years. Yes you get losing months, but that's all part of it...... Hopefully, by now posting my selections, I haven't put the kiss of death on it 🤞🤞🤞🤞
 
Good luck Dave - retriever retriever is correct that I am interested in this thread as I also have a 2.5 goal trial thread going (though it appears to be a lot more selective with it's picks since I'm using just 3 different leagues to choose from).

Just an idea (and a possible further income stream based on your picks) - for those with any sort of automation with their betting, it might be worth putting an in-play bet on the same picks in the over 1.5 goal market. I do this with all my over 2.5 goal picks - as soon as the odds hit 1.39 (usually around 15 mins into the game), it puts a bet on. I miss the odd bet if a goal goes in before the bet is placed (as the odds drop drastically), but that's quite rare. The success rate is quite high if you have a good O2.5 system, and with the odds at around 1.39, you only need to achieve a 66% hit rate to profit.
 
I honestly don't want to rain on your parade or discourage you in any way with this thread, but can I suggest that you concentrate your picks in leagues with average medium to high goal averages. When I saw your picks, I was a little sceptical as you picked a few games from low scoring leagues;
2 from Poland - current average goals per game; 2.03
Russia - current average goals per game; 2.34
Portugal Segunda - though currently 2.62 goals per game at only 2 games into the season, the league average for last season was 2.44 and only 43% of games having 3 goals or more.
France Ligue 2 - current average goals per game; 1.97

I also did a game goal calculation on tomorrow's Swedish game pick based on home/away season historical stats, and it came up with an expectation of 2.17 goals (there's a thread on this site about how to calculate goals with lots of useful comments and different methods, where I also have the calculator available as an attachment download if you want it).

If you have a look at this link, it will give you a good indication as to what leagues you may find will improve your results;

BetExplorer soccer stats - results, tables, soccer stats & odds

Soccer stats at BetExplorer offer soccer results, tables and stats service. Statistics, results, tables & odds for 100+ soccer leagues.
www.soccervista.com www.soccervista.com

The odds will drop a little, but your win rate should improve and compensate.

Incidentally, while I didn't bet on your picks in the O 2.5 goal market, I did in the O 1.5 goal market using the method I suggested above - not including the Dalkurd v GAIS game which wasn't an in-play game on BF, the rest of the games did go in-play, and with £10 bets it eventually resulted in a very small loss of £1.76 after 5% commission.
 
paulb164 said:
I honestly don't want to rain on your parade or discourage you in any way with this thread
Click to expand...

I don't think Dave will see it that way - he does say 'Feel free to comment' - any advice can only be beneficial.....

Nice post by the way......and neat idea re. 1.5 overs market........and hope you were on my Lay today (wish I had done a reverse forecast on the "two bets" - 1st & 2nd......lol :( ......both 11/2)
 
Sunday 18/08/19 Selections:-

11:00 Japan J League G Osaka v Iwata FT 1-1 (-1 pt)

14:00 Sweden Allsvenskan Sirius v Norrkoping FT 0-2 ( -1 pt)

14:00 Sweden Superettan Dalkurd v GAIS FT 3-0 (+1.02 pt)

14:00 Poland Ekstraklasa Piast Gliwice v Plock FT 1-0 (-1 pt)

14:30 Russia Premier Ufa v FK Rostov FT 2-0 (-1 pt)

16:00 Portugal Segunda FC Porto B v Varzim FT 1-1 (-1 pt)

16:30 Poland Ekstraklasa Legia v Zaglebie FT 1-0 (-1 pt)


Today's PL -4.98 pts

Running Bank 95.02 pts

@ paulb164 --- I totally see where you are coming from with regards to lower scoring leagues. However, prices usually reflect that and good gains can be had, eg, Ufa v Rostov I got odds of 3.1. Ok it didn't come in but I would have thought the away favourites might have sneaked one.

From the last 6 years the leagues you mentioned are doing me well:-

Russia 23% Yield
Poland 13% Yield.
Portugal 22% Yield (This league has accounted for 9% of my total points also)

Anyway, 4 games coming to within a goal of winning...... Frustrating, but that's betting.
 
One mantra I always consider, while I agree that better odds can offer a opportunity. It has to be a realistic expectation, basically no point taking odds of 5-10 or even 500 if the expectancy isn’t there.

If you have logical reasoning to expect it then fair enough.
 
Kent Gill said:
One mantra I always consider, while I agree that better odds can offer a opportunity. It has to be a realistic expectation, basically no point taking odds of 5-10 or even 500 if the expectancy isn’t there.

If you have logical reasoning to expect it then fair enough.
Click to expand...

Hi Kent,
I totally agree with you about expectation.... I guess that's why we bet, because we expect something to happen. Sometimes it does, and other times it doesn't...... All part of the fun.

Ufa v Rostov ----- Ufa leading up to the match 3 out of 5 matches @ home O2.5. Rostov leading up to the match 4 out of 5 matches @ away O2.5. Bookies offering odds of 3.1 - I'll take that any day of the week based on current form.
 
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Anything can happen in-play too......things we cannot account for, and forecast.

I watched the first game on your list - G Osaka v Iwata - quite a lively game until a player got his 2nd yellow card (and therefore, a sending off) for frustratingly, and unintentionally, kicking the ball, quite hard, into the spectators....he was very apologetic towards the crowd....lol.

Changed the whole flow of the game I thought, with the 2nd goal (penalty) coming after 90mins - should have been more goals in that game.
Sending off's, in my opinion, don't generally make things more one-sided - they just clamp the whole game down.
 
retriever said:
Anything can happen in-play too......things we cannot account for, and forecast.

I watched the first game on your list - G Osaka v Iwata - quite a lively game until a player got his 2nd yellow card (and therefore, a sending off) for frustratingly, and unintentionally, kicking the ball, quite hard, into the spectators....he was very apologetic towards the crowd....lol.

Changed the whole flow of the game I thought, with the 2nd goal (penalty) coming after 90mins - should have been more goals in that game.
Sending off's, in my opinion, don't generally make things more one-sided - they just clamp the whole game down.
Click to expand...

Red cards aren't good, especially when it's the striker getting sent off -- as in the G Osaka v Iwata match yesterday.
 
there may be some method in your madness... with odds now being governed by stat results and perceived expectations deciding picks, then there is some merit in doing the opposite (and if you can pick winners from low-scoring leagues, then there's an obvious edge there already). I'm sure I have said it elsewhere on this forum, but the best we can hope for is to win more than we lose, and if you're managing that then well done to you.
 
At the end of the day we are all trying to make a few quid. One person's idea might be the total opposite of someone else's.

Basically, I run 3 overs strategies with different filters on a variety of leagues. Each strategy having totally different filters. If a match qualifies I put the bet on -- even if deep down I think how the hell is that going to win -- I don't let my emotions get in the way whatsoever. Each strategy has very similar end results with PL, yield, % win rate, odds and drawdown.

Sometimes 2 of 3 the strategies select the same match. If that happens I place a 2 point bet on that particular game. This happened for the Dalkurd match yesterday and also the Elfsborg game tonight, but for logging my bets on this forum I'm just saying 1 point on all matches.

Hopefully tomorrow I'll post the month by month results I have to show the consistency i have had since January 2013.
 
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