• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Over 0.5 Glory Hunt

footysystems footysystems These are the figure I have for last season.
The Under0.5 column shows the percentage of games in that league that were 0:0 draws.
I converted the percentage to the number of games and come up with 7.49% of all games in the leagues listed as being goalless (last season only).
Could you check out some of the leagues I have listed using your data to see if you get a different outcome?


1678373038372.png
 
ArkRoyal said:
footysystems footysystems These are the figure I have for last season.
The Under0.5 column shows the percentage of games in that league that were 0:0 draws.
I converted the percentage to the number of games and come up with 7.49% of all games in the leagues listed as being goalless (last season only).
Could you check out some of the leagues I have listed using your data to see if you get a different outcome?


View attachment 130305
Click to expand...
Looks pretty conclusive tbh Kev but I include all leagues in the world on the data I have which is a huge difference I think ?
 
From the screen shot I quoted covers just about every league in the world. That is filtered data I have on my current betting strat and just about comes up well enough inplay to make a good few quid
 
I have been looking a bit deeper at this and have decided on a way forward.
I will be backing all qualifying games on Betfair with 2 1pt backs; the first at 1.10 and the second at 1.25 I can put these on prior to the games starting and keeping them in-play when the game starts. I will be using the Over2.5 odds as a filter, i.e. if the over 2.5 odds are less than or equal to 1.8 before the qualifying game starts, then the selection is confirmed.

1679226211794.png The graph above shows a 30 point profit from August 1st 2022 to March 15 2023. The slow start is due to waiting for the home team to have played 5 games at home and the same for the away team. The lull in the middle is due to the world cup, causing many leagues to be closed during that period. Interestingly, there was not a single losing bet before the world cup finished which racked up 160 consecutive winning selections.
The period covers 296 selections, with just 5 losing.
The selection process is fairly simple, maybe too simple, in that I am looking for the home team when playing at home have been involved in at least 5 games at home this season of which at least 4 and the last 3 had a goal in the first half. The same applies to the the away team. If either the home or away or both meet the criteria then the games is a selection.
I have made a couple of assumptions that if a game was 0:0 at HT then the odds of 1.25 will be matched and that the 1.10 bet will always be matched. Therefore, the 'profits' shown above will probably be smaller but hopefully are a reasonable reflection. Also I have assumed that Betfair has a market for all qualifying games which is not always the case.

Since the graph above there have been another 19 selections with 1 losing
 
I got my CgmBet the last time you mentioned it. Apart from a few basic Alerts I've yet to do anything constructive with it. Your above has pricked my interest again. I will have to have another go. Good luck with the new plan ArkRoyal ArkRoyal
 
retriever said:
I got my CgmBet the last time you mentioned it. Apart from a few basic Alerts I've yet to do anything constructive with it. Your above has pricked my interest again. I will have to have another go. Good luck with the new plan ArkRoyal ArkRoyal
Click to expand...
The guy who develops the software seems to be finally taking it to the next level.
 
Not a good day today. Failed to get matched on the Rangers game even though they didn't score until the 38th minute. Lost 2pts on one game and only won 0.45 pts on the others.
 
Another day similar to yesterday 2 pts lost on one match and 0.45 won on the others. Strange to have 2 losing bets within so few winners based on past results.
 
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