• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Over 0.5 Glory Hunt

ArkRoyal

ArkRoyal

Administrator
I have had access to CGMBet football database for some time now and in the past have provided free copies to a number of members.
Whilst appreciating the effort that goes in to the software, it can be a bit difficult, at first, to understand how to get the best out of the software. But I have put in some effort recently to try and get a better grip on getting the best out of it.

I have been looking at the over 0.5 market. At the start of the game the odds for a goal to be scored is usually between 1.05 -1.10 which are not particularly enticing. So I decided to have a go at dripping in bets at various odds points in play and settled on 1.25, 1.5 and 1.75. Obviously I will not get matched in some games as a goal will be scored before the odds to get to 1.25. It then dawned on me that I could maximise profits by just placing one larger stake at 1.25.

I am using Betfair to test this out and pay 2% commission. I want to win a point on each game that I get matched in which means I need to stake 4.07points. I have been matched in 13 games so far, losing in one of them. Let's see how they go now I am posting them on the forum.

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I think this needs a rethink already. I have got stakes on all of the pre 15:00 games but not sure if I will have time to get on them all later. Ideally I will get on them all and will use the results to decide on further filtering to reduce the number of selections on busy days.
 
ArkRoyal said:
I think this needs a rethink already. I have got stakes on all of the pre 15:00 games but not sure if I will have time to get on them all later. Ideally I will get on them all and will use the results to decide on further filtering to reduce the number of selections on busy days.
Click to expand...
..... looks like maybe another filter or two may do the trick! ;)
 
12 winning and 3 losing bets resulted in pretty much a break even day. Also had 41 other games that were over 0.5 but didn't reach the required 1.25 odds. Unfortunately I do not know what the actual odds were when the goal went in, which makes it difficult knowing if it is worthwhile reducing the required odds.
 
Now I have some live results results I can tweak the filters and see if things can improve. I have effectively 2 filters the number of previous games for each team looked at and the percentage of those games that were not nil nil. As a first stab I chose 5 games and 80% or more.
 
..... looks like it needs something with bigger odds as it requires four winners to every loser just to break even. ;)
 
ArkRoyal said:
I'm not giving up yet footysystems footysystems but you are right its not going to be easy
Click to expand...
well been looking around all forum for a while and you right odds are not great before the match but follow a guy for fun and he hit 133 winners and 172 winners just to see how far he could get to. starting with a tenner and letting it roll
 
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