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OR+RPR-CR

hedgehog

Mare
Hello all,

This one might interest you @Ferdy

Kempton 7.00
Eljaddaaf fh
Exchequer fh 2nd 7/2
Roman spinner fh nr no CSF or exacta return 2 bets

Horse...Course... Distance... Going... Jockey... OR
Elja.......5/12........2/11..........2/5........1/8..........0/7 1 place
Exch.....4/7..........5/27..........3/6........1/1..........0/4 1 place
RS........3/7..........1/9............3/7........2/6..........0/3 2 places

I've bet exchequer and roman spinner. I see eljaddaaf being 0/7 with the OR and higher as a negative. Exchequer is 2/3 and 0 places over course distance and going while roman spinner is 1/3 and 2 places.

AR/CR gives happy escape and exchequer but happy escape is 0/5 at the distance and I think is better over a mile.

Good luck today
 
Last edited:

Ferdy

Colt
No. Name Rating Fair Odds/1 Exchange Odds
3 Exchequer (IRE) 80.00 5.08 6.08 3.25
5 Roman Spinner 73.00 5.58 6.58 6.00
6 Happy Escape 57.00 7.20 8.20 5.00

Roman Spinner for me.
Exchequer is too short for me.
 

hedgehog

Mare
Post mortem on the 7.00 kempton

Happy escape won which wasn't in my shortlist but was highlighted by AR/CR. I'm willing to bet money that that was a fast race, the lead changed many times. @Chesham says slow horses win fast races and I think happy escape won this due to its stamina. 7f is a specialist distance so would normally go to a specialist but the 8f horse won this, first win at the distance, because it outlasted them all.

Good luck tomorrow
 

hedgehog

Mare
Hello all,

Wincanton 2.25
Gunfleet fh
Wandrin star fh
Garrane fh none even placed no CSF or exacta return 6 bets

Horse... Course... Distance... Going... Jockey... OR
Gun.......0/0..........0/0.............1/5........0/0..........0/1 0 places
WS........0/0..........0/0.............1/4........2/6..........0/1 1 place
Gar........0/2..........0/0.............0/5........2/8..........0/0

Garrane is 0/5 on the going and both its wins have been on heavy so discounted.
AR/CR gives gunfleet and wandrin star but I've just bet wandrin star as the jockey goes well with it and I think it close to well handicapped.

Good luck today
 
Last edited:

mickeddy

Colt
I have also had a look at this race and have:
Garrane*
Wandrin Star*
Benfleet
Potters Corner
Interestingly enough the money has come for PC who now heads the betting. Based on his all the way win here last time it is easy to see why.
Garrane has also been supported, has a progressive profile and should run his race.
WS, is drifting markedly in the betting although his last run was a career best. He is also progressive.
Benfleet, struggled at Cheltenham and will find this an easier task. Prior to that he ran a good race at Exeter behind Just A Sting who went on to win his next race.
Still undecided here although Garrane and Benfleet are both interesting.
 

hedgehog

Mare
@mickeddy, my selection was driven early into the final circuit. Not a chance there.

I also bet whoshotwho in the 2.15 Ludlow which lost it's rider 2 out. The winner was in my shortlist but was 0/6 with 0 places with the OR or higher so I discounted it early on.

A losing day, I hope you didn't bet.

Good luck today
 

mickeddy

Colt
No I didn't, couldn't reach a decision and experience has taught me not to bet in those circumstances. Sorry about your bets, you'll get it back tomorrow.
 

hedgehog

Mare
Post mortem on wincanton 2.25

My 3 did very little but my selection did best of the 3 so not a complete defeat.

Like the sound 1/6 with 3 places with the OR, ran over 26f lto. Best performance prior to today won 2m6f hc hdl at Stratford good to soft OR 122. Not a surprise again.

Good luck tomorrow
 

hedgehog

Mare
Hello all,

Lingfield 2.30
Giogiobbo
Teruntum star
Gorgeous noora fh won 7/4f no CSF or exacta return 6 bets

Horse... Course... Distance... Going... Jockey... OR
Gio........0/0..........3/9.............9/15......0/0..........?
TS........ 0/1..........5/24...........0/4........0/3..........2/30 2 places
Gn........1/2...........3/10...........2/6........0/1..........0/3 0 places

I've bet gorgeous noora.

Giogiobbo and teruntum star I don't see as form horses and I don't trust them. AR/CR gives watchable and teruntum star. Watchable is 0/8 on the going having never won on the AW.

I think gorgeous noora is a worthy favourite

Good luck today
 
Last edited:

hedgehog

Mare
Hello all,

I've looked at 159 races for the orc rating and think this is sufficient to make a judgement on the rating.
I've already said I'll be using this rating going forward and have decided that the purpose of this thread has been successfully fulfilled.

Hopefully @ArkRoyal will have the final spreadsheet and upload it for me. Arkroyal your help has been invaluable and I much appreciate it.

To summarise

The basic rating betting all selections to level stakes at bog has a 63 pts profit with a 54% strike rate and 13% yield. It is most satisfactory for a basic selection method and this is how I'll use it going forward. The exactas and csfs for the rating make a loss so will not be pursued.

Further restricting the rating to only races were the sum of lowest CR's is less than 26 gives 82 races, a small sample but they occur infrequently, a 70pts profit, 57% SR and 28% yield. Csfs make a loss but there is a small profit from the exactas of 29pts and a 23% SR. Exactas may be considered in the future.

Restricting again to only have sum cr less than 26 and only Betting form horses gives 65pts profit, 32% yield and 48% SR. The csfs break even but the exactas make 28pts profit for a 8% yield and 19% strike rate. I think the exactas could be played with a daily 1% ratchet successfully but you'd need a big bank. Again they will be considered and I'll continue to try to further reduce the number of losing bets in the future

If you have found this thread useful I'm ecstatic. I think it has been very successful.

Good luck today
 

hedgehog

Mare
Thanks very much @ArkRoyal , you efforts are always appreciated and I'm very grateful. Thanks again.

The above is for 200 races and over 100 of cr sum less than 26. Both are still doing very well. I got very lucky with this rating
 
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