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Old Formbooks

mjay mjay I am not sure i would have anything thing worth adding.Current times i would tend to view 111 as a negative perhaps not to chance but more likely to value.When i read vdw followers many appear to be attempting to put numbers to all aspects which is fine if they are making it work for them but my interpretation of vdw was that these play only a small part of the whole.

The consistency rating would be a good example and i would suggest taking your time and having a good think about each of the past three races prior to or certainly as part of the process while formulating the numerical side.Personally i would not concern yourself with what the experts say ,imo this business has none, and Re the self proclaimed vdw experts it does appear to myself that the louder they crow then the less they appear willing to show.!

My own way of working described concisely would be ratings plus profiling ,the former will give a number to indicate a horse of interest but the latter will make the call Re can it be backed and this profiling part has numerous aspects and is the by far the most time consuming and complex part of the process.
 
Could someone please advise of the dates of the VDW selections from the boxing day meeting mentioned in the 1985 article "The class form horse one most likely to win" These include Stray Shot and Zamandra - would this be boxing day 1984?

mick mick yes I am taking time for reflection at the moment - to be honest I have learned more from you and exploring some of the avenues you have mentioned this year than any of these old books! So thanks...
 
Hi mjay mjay

Just to confirm for you that the date of the races which were contested by Stray Shot and Zamandra was 26.12.1984, as you suggested.
 
mick mick yes I am taking time for reflection at the moment - to be honest I have learned more from you and exploring some of the avenues you have mentioned this year than any of these old books! So thanks...
mjay mjay When i responded to your question last night i was tired and waffling.! If i was going to have another crack at the vdw method (which i am not) then Re pulling a number from the consistency equation then mine would be based on the the best two of the last three runs.From a practical aspect this is going to provide more "consistent" horses so if needed i would then reduce via class - consistency,which may have been one of the points he was making via the Gaye Brief example.?

Back in the day i was never sold on the ability rating and i would replace this with the OR,but because this fig is now overtly aval then best use might be via finding our own interpretation of what it is saying about class.? When you ponder the vdw example races there was two 100% consistencies the first being they where all after timed ! but in every one of those races whenever there appeared to be some conflict between the consistency and ability ratings there was none in his final two sets of ratings with all of the winners shown top or jt in both.

As i recall when questioned about them he was evasive,only saying they where created by himself.This being so such was there accuracy that they must have contained some unique and innovative thinking.These days we have computers to help us but despite this i know of no ratings which can emulate the proficiency of his.If there is a key to achieving the same success as vdw claimed then imo sorting this would be it.

I only use one set of ratings which are of my own creation,and possibly do use some aspects of the information which is available to us all in a slightly different way to the majority of backers ,and this is often reflected in the bigger prices of my top rates.I am comfortable in using mine as a positive starting point and betting off what they are telling me but reaching this point took me > 20yrs and mine are nowhere near as good as the vdw ones appeared to be.
 
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mick mick thanks, excellent food for thought again. As I have mentioned before, with VDW there is much to sift between fantasy and genuine good ideas.

Pitmatic Pitmatic that is very helpful, thankyou as I maybe able to acquire the Haig formbook with these races in
they confused me however as though they say for example 1985 - 86 on the front cover, they are in fact the results of the
84/85 season!
 
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