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Trying to get lucky - Part 2

Yesterday's race was 2 seconds faster than average which seems a lot for a 6f race. Slow horses win fast races so the 7f winner won.

Southwell 2.15 c3 1m7.5f hvy

Hirjan
Getariver estimated
Passing dream
Song of the sky
Darling du large

Passing dream, trainer 0/95 no winner since July and only 1 place in last 21 days. Swerved

Song of the sky, trainer 0/17, better chaser than hurdler ch 1/3/6, hdl 0/3/10. Swerved

Darling du large, trainer 0/26, is 18lbs wrong and trip range 1/4/6. Swerved

That leaves hirjan and getariver. Trainers and jockeys of both in the winners. Hirjan all hurdle wins have been with claimers and is effectively running off 113 due to 10lb claim, 113+ 2/0/5, weight range a bit dodgy but otherwise good stats.

Getariver 2 races back was in a Cheltenham maiden hurdle, the current ORs of the first 6 are 1st 129, 2nd 136, 3rd 132, 4th getariver 123, 5th unrated, 6th 127. Taking an average of the 4 other than getariver with a rating gives 131 so I think getariver is underestimated in its OR by at least half a stone.

Can't split the pair so won't as a book at the odds at the time I looked would give evens the pair.

Selections hirjan and getariver

Good luck today
 
Looked at the 7.40 Wolverhampton c6 1m0.5f std

Lappet
A place to dream
Freedom and wheat
Calin lad and steal the show jt 4th

All but Calin lad have negatives in a least one of the categories bad enough to put me off them. Calins lad is going up in class of opposition and or which puts me off it as well. This race is about the woodwork

Odds on oli
Medici moon

Both have a minor negative, ooo j 0/14, mm t 0/12. But they have good positives

Ooo 52+ 2/8/24, std 1/5/8, trip range 2/6/18, j 0/1/3

Mm 55+ 2/2/15, std 3/4/18, trip range 3/3/17, j 1/1/3

On balance I prefer medici moon

Selection medici moon to place

Good luck today
 
Hello all,

I have given aor a good go and can't see why it doesn't work for me when thinking about it it should. The initial subset is working fine and I can only conclude I'm using aor in the wrong way. For the life of me I can't think of anything to flit to so at an impasse. Over the years I've tried many approaches but by far the most successful was making books as then and still now I struggle to balance the factors well enough to be successful with single selections. If anybody has a good idea as to what to try next I'd be grateful, my only limitation to this would be it would have to be simple. Maybe I should go back to the orc rating? That at least was reasonably successful though I still struggled to come to one selection.

Any ideas gratefully received
 
I've given this matter a think and will try top 4 orc for a while. I've got stats on top 3 which makes a profit betting blind and I've done a straw poll on top 4 and it gets 65-70% winners so a good starting point.

Wetherby 2.10 soft, 3m, giii hc ch

Top 4 in odds order are top ville Ben, Benny king, lake view lad and jonniesofa. I'll try to knock out one or two of these and select the remains as a book.

Tvb, never tried with an OR of 154 so has to improve and best class won is 2xC3 so a big step up on what it has achieved. Swerved

Bk, another trying a new top OR so has to improve, jockey 2/0/2 on the horse but 0/23 recently, trip is an unknown as is course. Has won a c2 but at 134 so a massive improvement necessary to win a giii. Swerved

Lvl, trainer and jockey in winners last 3 weeks and jockey 2/1/5, won this race last year off 147, today 155 which, or above, it's tried 3 times with 1 place, wins in all categories and 2/0/2 at the course. Included

J, jockey 0/17 but 5/3/10, has won a gii nv ch, OR tried once unsuccessfully, wins in all categories bar course, chase 2/1/4, best win 137 so only 5lbs improvement necessary which is achievable.

Book lake view lad and jonniesofa

Good luck boxing day
 
Looked at the 3.55 Wolverhampton but am swerving.

Top 4 orc are pactolus, Felix, star of southwold and nonios

Pactolus saves its best for this course but has never won with the jockey, 101+ 1/4/7. At 6/5 I'd prefer better from the jockey and with the OR. Swerved

Felix, new high OR, never tried a weight so low and best wins c4s so a big step up. Swerved

Star of southwold, never tried the jockey who is 0/17 recently, won 2 c2s but both claimers and saves its best for Chelmsford, 88+ 2/1/7. Swerved

Nonios, after a break 0/5/7, weight range 1/7/14, course 1/6/12, 88+ 3/6/18, won 2 c2s. If I was going for an ew it would be this horse but swerved.

Good luck tomorrow
 
hedgehog said:
Hello all,

I have given aor a good go and can't see why it doesn't work for me when thinking about it it should. The initial subset is working fine and I can only conclude I'm using aor in the wrong way. For the life of me I can't think of anything to flit to so at an impasse. Over the years I've tried many approaches but by far the most successful was making books as then and still now I struggle to balance the factors well enough to be successful with single selections. If anybody has a good idea as to what to try next I'd be grateful, my only limitation to this would be it would have to be simple. Maybe I should go back to the orc rating? That at least was reasonably successful though I still struggled to come to one selection.

Any ideas gratefully received
Click to expand...
You know my thoughts - the day to day handicaps are very tight weight wise and IMO appearance money is destroying the need to win or place 2nd - so what is wrong with making a book from the race ! - only one thing and its the limited value obtainable from this method of backing - so we have to decide what we want from the race - if we want o have an interest and are not bothered about a great return we can back four - but if you want a decent % profit the more runners ( stakes) we have in the field only serves to water down the profit - personally I generally want 2 runners on my side and split the stake levelly between the two treating the race as one event so that if either one wins happy days - sods law dictates that the 3rd rated wins plenty going off un-backed but records show that it is not worth while trying to continually back more than two - if the 3rd rated is long odds you can get them in - we have discussed this before and there are plenty of dutching calculators on the web freely available if you dont want to create one - might even want to back your own and employ a bit of laying.
 
hedgehog said:
Looked at the 3.55 Wolverhampton but am swerving.

Top 4 orc are pactolus, Felix, star of southwold and nonios

Pactolus saves its best for this course but has never won with the jockey, 101+ 1/4/7. At 6/5 I'd prefer better from the jockey and with the OR. Swerved

Felix, new high OR, never tried a weight so low and best wins c4s so a big step up. Swerved

Star of southwold, never tried the jockey who is 0/17 recently, won 2 c2s but both claimers and saves its best for Chelmsford, 88+ 2/1/7. Swerved

Nonios, after a break 0/5/7, weight range 1/7/14, course 1/6/12, 88+ 3/6/18, won 2 c2s. If I was going for an ew it would be this horse but swerved.

Good luck tomorrow
Click to expand...
Average OR tomorrow = 93



E1AFD863-E5DA-4BF0-BF62-5B0755657FFD.jpeg731450D7-08AF-407C-B6B6-C2A97B99E717.jpeg
 
Thanks markfinn markfinn, I've been thinking I should get it down to 2 so your wise words support that.

Thanks Chesham Chesham, I'm happy to swerve the wolves race but from your figures it looks like nonios and pactolus. I originally got it down to those 2 but was unhappy with pactolus which seemed to flow over to nonios so I swerved. It's much better to swerve than take a risk about the main horse in the pair. I've got to learn to swerve no matter what the result may be. Lack of swerving has lost me many a bank, that and the fact I'm a pillock. Thanks again
 
I'd have gone Pactolus and Star of Southwold on the above - SofS compared to Nonios:
win 2 of 5 instead of 2 from 11 (40% v 18%)
place% SofS 40, Nonios 36 - granted av odds is 11.48% v 14.59%
A/E 2.6 v 1.68 Chi 2.32 v 0.62
From which I'd expect SofS to throw up a winning bet more often, at slightly more modest odds. (But arguably better value, as SofS is winning more than his odds suggest he ought, to a greater extent than Nonios is)
Dave
 
hedgehog hedgehog reading your above you are no more a pillock than any of us can be when engaged in a pursuit which is tailor made to make pillocks of us all. :eek: Some of my worst memory's over the years come not from losers backed but close call swerves which then messed on me by winning. The positive fall back is that we all have the opportunity to at least attempt to learn from our mistakes, and on the occasions when this is possible then today's loss can play a part in future profits. :)
 
When you are deep into anything details often slip and the memory can play tricks, equally when celebrating or commiserating - there is something else to bear in mind “ you dont have to win it back or win the next one in same way as you played the last one” we treat races as one of events so why not staking .

When trying anything new I will always look at “ how can I do this and at least get most of my stake back at Starting prices
 
Thank mick mick, knowing someone as successful as you still feels like a pillock at times makes me feel better. Thanks again

Market rasen 2.15 c3 3m3.5f GS

The 4 are very first time, trio for Rio, le reve and zerachiel

Vft, 122+ 1/3/13 so not exactly prolific, weight range 1/1/7 so not great there. Swerved

Tfr, hasn't won a chase yet but only 2 tries and placed once, jockey not good 0/19, going 1/1/2, 128+ 1/2/5, won a c4 off 131 so not a big stretch. Included

Lr, never tried the course and 2 attempts at the trip range unsuccessfully, wins in all other categories, 122+ 6/8/33, won a c3 of 130. Included

Z, weight range 1/1/7, 115+ 0/1/6 so not good. Swerved

Book trio for Rio and le reve

Good luck today
 
I didn't abstain, I've bet my 4 across 2 races win and loaded place so 16pts in play. 2 places and I get most of my money back. I've given myself a target but if I'm lucky I expect it will be a long slog over many months to achieve. At least it gives me something to aim at though targets usually break my heart.

Good luck today everybody, I know I'll be needing it.
 
I've had a win and loaded place 3tbp in nonios which I think the place has a good chance. It was my ew in the race. We'll see, probably a very stupid bet.
 
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