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Off topic comments on the successful the uncouth longshots thread

hedgehog

Mare
2 kerchangs, both 3rd

Start 500 now 473.60 wagered 37.0 poi negative bets 1/17 SR still pathetic!

I tried average OR today which improved my results just not enough, I'm obviously not using it right. I'll give that some thought

Good luck tomorrow
 

hedgehog

Mare
Fairyhouse 2.05

EW glorious galway 1pt ew

T no runs in last 2 weeks J 6% and 0/0, soft 0/1/3, 1f either way 0/1/1, 3lbs either way 0/1/1, best 2nd 7.5L 112 needs to improve 8lbs, course 0/0, chase 1/4/6. Average OR today 128.07, lto 128.33 so slightly dropping. Lto sandwiched between 124 and 116 so I'd say it ran to a 120 which it has today.

Aherlow was third in the lto race sandwiched between 109 and 115 so ran to 112, it's a chase maiden after 7 attempts so I'm swerving it. Killer miller has had 4 attempts with the OR or higher and failed to place. Wrong direction is very lightly races but lto most of the opposition were unrated and it's trying trip, course and weight for the first time. Ask Susan has a break to overcome but stats are positive, is also trying the trip for the first time so I consider it to be the major threat to my selection

Good luck today
 

hedgehog

Mare
Kerchang, only managed 4th after leading to 2 out. Got backed in as well. My luck is appalling, it's got to even out at some point.

Thank you @Chesham, if I'd have seen your fact before it would have comforted me.

Good luck today
 

hedgehog

Mare
I've reviewed the running of my last 12 selections and either they are leading at the point the race starts in ernest and weaken or are kept mid field or further back make an effort but aren't a threat at any point. From this I'd say the trainers don't believe the horse can win even though most of the selections were backed in and is trying to have a dismal run to reduce the OR. I'm betting horses I think can win even if I bet ew. So the trainers don't believe the horse is well handicapped but how they are making that decision I don't understand because I do.

How do trainers rate their horses if it's not by suitability of race and OR? I've no clue!

Good luck tomorrow
 

hedgehog

Mare
I seem to be one of those people who have to discover for themselves what is already common knowledge which is a curse.

I've reviewed my last 12 losers and it seems a greater than 7lb increase is enough to put a trainer off. Take glorious galway yesterday lto 109 but 3lbs out of the handicap so 112 lto, yesterday 115 but 5lbs out of the handicap so 120 an 8lb rise.

If I look at the last winning run and compare to today allowing 7lb for a rise to the next class and adding that to the OR change between the last winning run and the current race 9 out of 12 were rising more than 7lbs. The 3 that didn't were el ghazwani which was favourite, game line which was backed near the race and blundered away its chances and kaser which was again backed near the race and given too much to do.

Maybe 7lbs improvement is all a trainer can hope to achieve through 2nd run after a break or rigorous training which is why that seems to be the cutoff.

Glorious galway had only won a seller before so was going up a lot on what it had achieved.

I realise the is all old news, as I said I'm cursed

Good luck today
 

hedgehog

Mare
By using average OR bubble and squeak should win the 6.45 Wolverhampton followed home by cupboard love. B&S last win was c2 of 87, its last race had an average OR of 94.30, today is 76.86 more like a c4 than a c2 and its dropped 2lbs as well. Its never won on the aw but has 6 places from 9 attempts.

We'll see how that goes
 

nigel90

Colt
I seem to be one of those people who have to discover for themselves what is already common knowledge which is a curse.

I've reviewed my last 12 losers and it seems a greater than 7lb increase is enough to put a trainer off. Take glorious galway yesterday lto 109 but 3lbs out of the handicap so 112 lto, yesterday 115 but 5lbs out of the handicap so 120 an 8lb rise.

If I look at the last winning run and compare to today allowing 7lb for a rise to the next class and adding that to the OR change between the last winning run and the current race 9 out of 12 were rising more than 7lbs. The 3 that didn't were el ghazwani which was favourite, game line which was backed near the race and blundered away its chances and kaser which was again backed near the race and given too much to do.

Maybe 7lbs improvement is all a trainer can hope to achieve through 2nd run after a break or rigorous training which is why that seems to be the cutoff.

Glorious galway had only won a seller before so was going up a lot on what it had achieved.

I realise the is all old news, as I said I'm cursed

Good luck today
Hi @hedgehog . I think you also have to take into account a horse's profile in deciding whether it is likely to handle an increase in OR. For example a lightly raced chaser is likely to handle >7 lb rise better than one who has had say in excess of 10 chases. One also has to consider the opposition both of the previous run and todays particularly the ratings of those close by in the previous race. Glorious Galway had a tough ask effectively going up 8lb from a race of similar class to yesterday having been beaten 8L. Also the rating of the winner was only 124 in that race and 3rd was 116 so as I say a tough ask. Looked to me like the trainer tried his luck in a long distance chase on soft with a very light weight of 9-7.
Please don't think I am criticising your methodology as I have hindsight on my side as I merely am using your example to flush out other things to consider .
 

hedgehog

Mare
Hello @nigel90, I'd fully agree. I don't think above 7lbs is a limitation for the horse just a mental no go line for the trainer. I think things like weight for age plays a big part as well.

El ghazwani won a c4 of 83 then immediately won a c3 of 90 so a possible 14lbs better. Ever since then the trainer has been trying to reduce its OR but the official handicapper is only dropping it 1 or 2 lbs per poor run. I'd say it's got to run 3 or 4 more times poorly before the trainer will try for a win. The trainer shot himself in the foot with that c3 win.

I think the trainer of glorious galway may have shot himself in the foot as well but there is an out, the horse hasn't won a novice chase so could go for them this season. Novice chases pay quite well and the trainer could win a few of them and build up quite a pot of winnings. The only problem is if it ran into a graded runner in the making but it could be a 120 so would stomp on the average runner.

Bubble and squeak wins after being backed in from 3/1 during the day to 9/4 sp. Get in! Cupboard love came last. I doubt the trainer of bubble and squeak will want another win soon after spending runs getting its OR down to its last winning mark. The prize today will pay nicely while that OR fiddling is done.

Good luck tomorrow
 

mick

Sire
I seem to be one of those people who have to discover for themselves what is already common knowledge which is a curse.
I would question what use is common knowledge especially so to the long shot seeker because this will be reflected in the market.? Re trainers intentions some backers delve deep attempting to glean this, and it would be reassuring to know that all trainers put in the same effort not only concerning there runner but also the opposition. However i would question how often this is the case.?

When a horse appears out of form then as punters we have to ponder three possibilities A) Connections have been gaming to buy a winning mark B) The animal has been blatantly stopped or C ) It has genuinely regressed. A) I like but it is B and C which cause the problems.
 

hedgehog

Mare
@mick, I'm hoping average OR might be able to sort out those 3 options. It would be nice if it could.

Lingfield 2.15 c3, heavy, 2m

Nelson's touch 3pt win

T 0/7 J 0/1 but 0/2/2, hvy 1/3/5, 1f either way 2/4/13, 3lbs either way 1/1/2, best 2nd 7L 123 so has to improve, last win c4 115 so a potential improvement of 16lbs needed, course 0/0, hurdles 2/5/12. Today's average OR is 113.00 which given the c3s for the other horses I've looked at seems weak. Lto the horse ran down the field in a c3 with average OR of 126.38 so today is seeing a 13lb weaker race. It ran off 124 which it has today but a 3lb claim takes it down to 121. This is 16lbs easier for this horse. It has only won c4s but today is a very good chance of getting a c3

Ruacana will be all the rage but ran off 112 lto because of a 7lb claim and runs of 120 today because of a 3lb claim, its last race had an average OR of 109.00 so this race to win is 12lbs more difficult and it has to really run 28lbs better because of nt advantage. I think it may well do it having won a g1 hurdle but I'm not putting money on it.

Good luck today
 

mlmrob

Sire
If I may add some relevant information. I know it is after the event but I have just read the post.

Nelsons Touch comes from a yard that has a problem at the minute. Seamus Mullins is on a losing run of 78 stretching back to July. I don't have the information but that looks like some sort of virus. Always worth checking stable form.

The second thing is @Chesham kindly reproduced the charts from HRB. Unfortuntely those charts only list the last three races and for Shaws Cross it shows a 9/9 in his third last race. That doesn't tell the full story as Shaws Cross had finished third in a 0-120, AOR 111, and was disqualified and placed last as Tom O Brien forgot to weigh in. Take a look at Shaws Cross fourth last race and note the OR of the winner Midnight Midge and note his OR now. Shaws Cross gave him 11lbs. Off 104 Paul Henderson could afford to win this race. Afford? see below

This race was a qualifier for the Challenger Race Series Final run at Haydock in April. The first eight home in this race would qualify for the final so Nelsons Touch and Ruacana if they finished first or second here would likely not qualify for the final as their official rating would go over the threshold for the final which is a 0-125.
 

hedgehog

Mare
Thank you @Chesham and @mlmrob for your information, it explains why Nelson's touch did so poorly when I was expecting an easy win. It will be well handicapped when the shadow over the stable lifts.

It's a kerchang though. I'll try again.

Wolverhampton 6.45 c4 std 1m6f

Weather front 3pt win

I look out for this type of horse during Cheltenham as the nh trainers farm the distance AW races with fit hurdlers. This race has an average OR of 77.78 and is a c4. WF ran its last flat race in a c5 but with an average OR of 77.33 so a hot c5. It then went novice hurdling and from 3 runs had 2nd, 1st and 1st the last winner of which it got a rating of 131 and it was a c4. Using @Outlander s 45lb difference between nh and flat it won the flat equivalent of a c4 off 86. WF has never run at the distance but has won over 1m4f and 2m, its won on the going, AW and weight range. The trainer has a 38% SR the jockey 8% but is a good jockey.

I feel so confident about this selection I've had 2 quid on at 21/1 and think the odds are crazy.

Thanks again and good luck this evening
 

hedgehog

Mare
Lingfield 1.45 c2 std 1m2f

Glen shiel

Today's average OR(aor) is 96.45, looking at the market leaders today is more of a tale of disadvantage.

Kasbaan lto aor 80.33 in a c2 which seems poor, so up 16lbs plus a 2lb orincrease. I expect this horse will run down the field.

Entangling lto 86.93 in a c3 so up 10lbs plus a 4lb or increase, another I expect to run down the field

Kuwait currency lto 97.50 in Listed so not much better than today's race dropping 1lb but up 3lbs or so 2lbs wrong but getting 2lbs wfa so about level.

Victory bond lto 97.83 in a c2, no or increase so 1lb right.

Glen shiel last run with ORs ascot c2 with aor of 101.50 and had a 2lb or drop since then so 7lbs right. Trainer and jockey, trip and weight all OK, only run once on the AW and not placed. Has won a listed in France. The 13/2 when I looked seems too generous.

Good luck today
 

hedgehog

Mare
Glen shiel is out to 12/1 on betfair so I've had a minimum bet on the win market. I couldn't check the price disparity as the symbol wasn't there. Of the market leaders I think this is most likely to win, have absolutely no idea what's going on with that market.

Good luck today
 

Chesham

Sire
Glen shiel is out to 12/1 on betfair so I've had a minimum bet on the win market. I couldn't check the price disparity as the symbol wasn't there. Of the market leaders I think this is most likely to win, have absolutely no idea what's going on with that market.

Good luck today
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