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Off topic comments on the successful the uncouth longshots thread

Ferdy

Colt
I have Extrodinair top rated.

No.NameRatingFair Odds/1
11​
Extrodinair70.005.73
2​
Cote dAzur60.006.68
3​
Samphire Coast50.008.02
9​
Philamundo (IRE)49.008.18
 

hedgehog

Mare
El ghazwani did nothing so 3pts of my 5pts wagered today lost. Extrodinair has drifted out to 14/1 but at 1/4 the odds will not get me back my pts for a place, I'd need the win which is unlikely.
 

hedgehog

Mare
Short of time but tried another race

Taunton 3.30, c5, 2m5.5f, GS

Win game line 3pts

EW arquebusier 1pt ew

Now have 10pts liability with 3pts already lost

Good luck today
 

hedgehog

Mare
5 kerchangs today

Start 500 now 489.6 wagered 22 poi negative, bets 1/9 SR 11%

I should have left it after el ghazwani lost.

Initial subset has got 4/7 so doing OK, I'll keep using it

Still a rubbish day
 

hedgehog

Mare
Today is another day. Try again

Newbury 1.50, c2, 2m4f, soft

Win azzerti 3pts

T 7% J 15% and 2/2/7, soft 3/2/8, 1f either way 3/3/12, weight 3lbs either way 1/2/6, best won 137 so has to improve 2lbs, course 1/1/2, chase 3/1/8, won c2 and 2 c3s. Lto won with a 135 on seasonal debut beating a race fit horse chef d'equipe, only has to improve 4lbs from that run to be in with a chance.

EW o o seven 1pt ew

T 16% J 16% and 2/2/9, after a break 4/1/6, soft 2/0/4, trip range 3/2/10, weight range 2/3/13,
Best 3rd 1.75L 152 so needs to improve 3lbs, won 148, never had OR so high, course 0/1/1, chase 4/3/16, won 4 c2s. The lto race was a good one with 3 lto winners competing but ORs tell me nothing

Obvious danger Kalashnikov, great stats but lto race is deceptive. K was beaten by a race fit horse in forest bihan and didn't run up to its OR, the third frodon was also making a seasonal debut and been off longer than K and definitely didn't run to its OR. At best K ran a 149 so needs to improve 6lbs, its never carried the weight before or even close. It will have to carry the weight for a g1 at Cheltenham, fallback aintree, but they will be level weight affairs, this is a handicap and K is trying something new.I think I'll probably be wrong but I don't think this horse is a good favourite

Looked at the 5.45 dundalk and swerved

Good luck today
 
1.50 Newbury - Oldgrangewood @ 5/1

I’ve looked into my crystal ball (that i bought in the Black Friday sales), and this horse appeared. The Skelton yard is in great form, jockey too and the horse has form at course, distance and going!

Goodluck today!
 

hedgehog

Mare
Good luck @giuseppe_esq, your horse is being backed so I'd say you have a very good chance

Last race today I hope

Kempton 6.00 c3, 6f, std/slw

Win last page 3pts
T 13% J 9% and 1/0/2, going 1/1/3, half a furlong either way 3/2/9, 3lbs either way 1/3/9, best won 87 so 3lbs possible and 1/1/4 with OR and above, course 1/1/3, AW 2/3/9, dropping 4lbs physical weight, won lto against race fit opponents, cdg win, was backed in for the win in morning

EW so brave 1pt ew
T 13% J 14% but 0/0/1, after a break 1/0/1, going 0/0 trip 2/1/4, weight range 2/0/4, best 3rd 0.75L 79 so has to improve 5lbs, new OR high, course 0/0, AW 2/0/2, won 2 c5s so a big step up but lto 3rd in a c2 which was a good race with 1st and 2nd both lto winners, the first 5 were all race fit and judging from 2nd to 5th this horse is 12lbs better than a 79 so 7lbs in hand

Danger is second collection which has won a c3 and comes from a good race lto and should have 8lbs in hand if race fit. It isn't and after a break 0/0/2 and course 0/0/2 which is enough to temper my enthusiasm

Good luck today
 
Good luck @giuseppe_esq, your horse is being backed so I'd say you have a very good chance

Last race today I hope

Kempton 6.00 c3, 6f, std/slw

Win last page 3pts
T 13% J 9% and 1/0/2, going 1/1/3, half a furlong either way 3/2/9, 3lbs either way 1/3/9, best won 87 so 3lbs possible and 1/1/4 with OR and above, course 1/1/3, AW 2/3/9, dropping 4lbs physical weight, won lto against race fit opponents, cdg win, was backed in for the win in morning

EW so brave 1pt ew
T 13% J 14% but 0/0/1, after a break 1/0/1, going 0/0 trip 2/1/4, weight range 2/0/4, best 3rd 0.75L 79 so has to improve 5lbs, new OR high, course 0/0, AW 2/0/2, won 2 c5s so a big step up but lto 3rd in a c2 which was a good race with 1st and 2nd both lto winners, the first 5 were all race fit and judging from 2nd to 5th this horse is 12lbs better than a 79 so 7lbs in hand

Danger is second collection which has won a c3 and comes from a good race lto and should have 8lbs in hand if race fit. It isn't and after a break 0/0/2 and course 0/0/2 which is enough to temper my enthusiasm

Good luck today
Its a banker lol

Goodluck to you too @hedgehog
 

hedgehog

Mare
4 kerchangs

Start 500 now 479.6 wagered 32.0 poi negative bets 1/15 SR pathetic!

The initial subset isn't doing well 4/10, give that some thought.

Tomorrow is another day
 
Very well done @giuseppe_esq, you have definitely got the hang of racing now. Long may it continue. Very well done again
Hi @hedgehog ,

I have probably got lucky a few times. Watch out for my losing streak.

I doubt myself or anyone will ever truly get the hang of this game.

I have learnt a great deal from your posts, believe it or not, so all I can say is keep doing what you do, and also thankyou!

Your posts always create a buzz on this forum, and get forum members to participate.

I am sure many others, as I am, are happy to have a member like yourself on here.

You are always humble, and liked by many.

Keep grinding and contributing!
 

hedgehog

Mare
Thank you very much @giuseppe_esq, your words are kind and thoughtful and will be re-read a lot by me.

I don't think you appreciate how far you have come since joining the forum, try rereading some of your early posts and the horses you picked. Compare to now. It's like chalk and cheese. You are much better than you think. The losing run may come but you will weather it well and be winning again soon enough.

Thank you again and accept the fact you are getting very good at racing
 

hedgehog

Mare
@dave58, there's no need to thank me as I am being entirely selfish because recognising when people have done well reminds me, with a little patience and effort, I could also be successful. It is no hardship to congratulate a member when it simultaneously aids me in staying committed and putting the effort in.

Thank you for the thanks, it is much appreciated

Newbury 3.40 c2, GS, 2m0.5f

Win Chesterfield 3pts win

T 0/7 J 0/6 but 0/1/1, GS 2/0/5, 1f either way 6/7/19, 3lbs either way 1/3/6, best won with a 144 so 1lb possible and with OR and above 2/2/7, course 1/1/2, chase 1/3/4, has won a low grade chase but for hurdle handicaps has won g2, c2, c3. Lto came 2nd sandwiched between a 154 and 145 when 143 so possible 7lbs better than OR today.

No ew bet today though ashoka is tempting but I think the trainer is trying to get the OR down to about 130 which is its highest winning mark

Good luck today
 

hedgehog

Mare
Wolverhampton 7.20, c4, 1m0.5f, std

Win kaser 3pt win

T 21% J 0/21 but 2/0/5, std 3/3/10, 1f either way 3/4/8, 3lbs either way 2/3/9, best won 78 so needs to improve only tried OR once and didn't place, course 3/3/9, AW 3/4/12, won 2 c4s, lto sandwiched between 87 and 86 when 83 so possible 4lbs.

Today average or 81.27 or 83
Lto avg or 85.38 or 83
Lto2 when won avg or 77.78 or 78

This horse had a 5lb or increase lto and 7lb up in class. Today dropping 4lbs in class

Earlier I picked Chesterfield which is dropping 6lbs in class today compared to lto.

Good luck today
 
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