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Off topic comments on the successful the uncouth longshots thread

dave58

Administrator
No problem @hedgehog. If you're not sure where you're going paper trading is a good idea. You can enjoy the winners and still get the satisfaction of knowing you picked them, and when you feel confident you can use real money knowing that you have proved that your method is sound.
 
Hi @hedgehog . Some good advice on here so I will try not to overly repeat anything other than to express my view that you shouldn't get into a mindset that looks only for placers! I say this because most horses who place in handicaps run pretty much to their marks anyway so on balance are likely to have most conditions in their favour and therefore look like a winner in the race anyway. Best IMHO is to do as you are doing by going small with the win bet and loading the place portion or just do the place bet provided you are OK with gut wrenching feeling when a biggie goes in.
Good luck with your endeavors.
Good points in this post - most people believe (erroneously) that horses that place have been unlucky not to win - in reality any trainer seeking to gain a mark will ensure that its either up in front or way out the back regardless of the market - appearance money only plays into their hands and makes it more difficult to assess intentions.

There is an angle that be can built around appearance money and those horses that have no intention of winning.
 

mick

Sire
In the top class races the place prize money is certainly worth having but in the main i suspect that the majority of stables will want a win or unplaced outcome. It would be interesting to know what percentage of betting stables actually wager EW. Also what constitutes a long shot, a respected punter i know views any horse @ 8/1 > as such but 8/1 in The Hunt Cup could be the 2nd Fav, while a 7/1 in a five run contest could be seen as a long shot.?
 

Chesham

Sire
Hi @hedgehog if you are looking for Longshots, then perhaps look for Triners who can get such horses under the radar. I know that you rate Lee but his selections in his own words tended to be at the short end of the Betting with the odd long shot now and again (Byron) .

I would forget the Kerching when they win (Highs are a nice feeling) but it is the Kerchangs that one needs to get over and move on.

with regards to your Longshots, you will get long losing runs, even if you had accurately priced that a horses had a true probability of 15/1 but was being offered at 30/1, it can only win at the True Percentage of times 15/1 indicates. Which will incur long losing runs.
 

dave58

Administrator
Good points in this post - most people believe (erroneously) that horses that place have been unlucky not to win - in reality any trainer seeking to gain a mark will ensure that its either up in front or way out the back regardless of the market - appearance money only plays into their hands and makes it more difficult to assess intentions.

There is an angle that be can built around appearance money and those horses that have no intention of winning.
I remember a while back someone looking into a method of backing a horse to win and laying the same one in the place market, the thinking being similar to yours.
I would imagine it would be certain trainers in lower class races.
 

hedgehog

Mare
Thank you gentlemen for your help, it is very much appreciated and I will give each some thought.

I'm paper trading, stop point is either loss of half the bank or when bank doubled at which points I may start betting again.

Initial subset horses that won or were within 5L of the winner nh or 2L flat on last completed run taken from irishracing.com form summary

Bank 500pts with 3pts bet for win bets, 1pt each way for longer priced horses giving me 100 tries at each

I don't feel I can put this on @The Uncouth thread but I will put the ew bets there

Hereford 2.40, c3, 2m3.5f, soft

Considered sweet adare, lady of lamanvar, illuminated lady, runasimi river

Win bet 3pts runasimi river, trainer 23%, jockey 0/13 recently but is goto guy with 2/1/3, recent run, never tried soft but 1/1 on both GS and heavy, 2m3f to 2m4f 2/1/4, weight 10-10 to 11-2 1/0/2, best 2nd nk 107 needs to improve at least 2lbs, course 2/0/2, hdls 3/1/10

EW lady of lamanvar 1pt ew

Trainer 12%, jockey 15% but never tried before, after a break 1/4/7, soft 0/3/4, 2m3f to 2m4f 1/0/2, weight 11-7. - 12-1 1/0/2, best 2nd 4L 125 so 5lbs possible, OR above 120 0/1/2, course never tried, hdls 1/5/8

The obvious danger is sweet adare with the 2nd and 3rd from its win lto both winning nto. Its gone up 8lbs but has a 7lb claimer but I don't think the claim compensates for the inexperience. Its won on soft, in weight range, is low mileage with 1/2/5 hdls and placed in the trip range. Very dangerous.

Good luck today
 

hedgehog

Mare
Kerchang! Sweet adare wins bank 495

Try again

Kempton 7.10 c4, std/slw/1m3f

Win Sarim 3pts

T 15%, J 0/19 but never tried, never tried going, 1f either way 1/1/4, never tried the weight range, best won lto 73 but 3lb claim offsets increase in OR, course 1/0/1 as is AW. Lto 3rd was a nto winner, won a c4

EW Queen Constantine 1pt ew

T 50%, J 100% and never tried, after a break 0/1/2, never tried going, distance range 0/3/4, weight range 0/0/1, best 2nd 2.25L 74 and only tried that or above once and failed to even place, 7lb claim offsets increase in OR, never tried course, AW 0/0/1, getting 4lbs wfa, lto 3rd was a nto winner, won c5

Contrast has never placed in 4 attempts after a break but has won a c3 with 91. Torochila, getting 4lbs wfa, won in the weight range, placed twice in the distance range, placed on AW, best 2nd 0.75L 80 and only tried OR or above twice with 1 place, won c4, goto jockey 1/3/5. Very dangerous

Good luck this evening
 
Kerchang! Sweet adare wins bank 495

Try again

Kempton 7.10 c4, std/slw/1m3f

Win Sarim 3pts

T 15%, J 0/19 but never tried, never tried going, 1f either way 1/1/4, never tried the weight range, best won lto 73 but 3lb claim offsets increase in OR, course 1/0/1 as is AW. Lto 3rd was a nto winner, won a c4

EW Queen Constantine 1pt ew

T 50%, J 100% and never tried, after a break 0/1/2, never tried going, distance range 0/3/4, weight range 0/0/1, best 2nd 2.25L 74 and only tried that or above once and failed to even place, 7lb claim offsets increase in OR, never tried course, AW 0/0/1, getting 4lbs wfa, lto 3rd was a nto winner, won c5

Contrast has never placed in 4 attempts after a break but has won a c3 with 91. Torochila, getting 4lbs wfa, won in the weight range, placed twice in the distance range, placed on AW, best 2nd 0.75L 80 and only tried OR or above twice with 1 place, won c4, goto jockey 1/3/5. Very dangerous

Good luck this evening
Admit it - you just love the work or the hobby of creating the ratings and subsequent stats P/L % etc around 🏇 the profit is the satisfaction of work done - :) good luck tonight
 
I've started this thread as the longshots threads is purely for selections and results at the request of the thread creator @The Uncouth .

I think it is so successful that it naturally creates a buzz and comments which are good but can confuse the purpose of the thread.

@markfinn asked about the exchanges for this type of betting and I am a new convert but that is what I use. I can see the terms of each way will actually get you mot for the place and on the exchanges the win each way part is usually higher than the separate win only market.

Because of this I've been noticing it is possible to bet each way then lay the win portion for a bet to nothing of about a point and still have the place part at better terms going for you.

As said I'm new to this approach

Personally I don't think the exchanges have enough liquidity at the longer odds to ever make this a viable sole income. I can see why @The Uncouth uses bookies as that is not a problem.

Has anybody any comments please?
I did not reply to this as I thought others would - the big advantage of the exchanges is you can actually set your min required odds and therefore longshots can built into to system - its amazing what prices are actually taken - you need to learn before diving in - but its a no brainer not to use what ever is out there
 

hedgehog

Mare
Looked at 3 races today but only 1 qualifier in each, only 1 bet from the search

Bank 501.6pts

Lingfield 1.55 c3, 1m2f, std

Win el ghazwani 3pts

T 20% J 26% but 0/0/2 with the horse, recent run, std 3/1/8, 1f either way 3/1/12, 8-11 to 9-3 0/0/5, best won 90 so possible 4lbs, same or above 86 1/1/7, course 3/0/3, AW 3/1/11, won a c3, all wins over cdg, lto over 1m3f was headed inside fnl f so won the race inside the race, came 5th of 87, 4th 91 came 2nd nto off same or, 6th 90 lto winner, horse again should have about 4lbs in hand

Other races were both marred by the same thing, big steps up in class given what they had achieved. Both at Chelmsford, 5.30 Reeves, 6.30 the gill brothers, both swerved but I'll be interested in the results.

No ew bets today

Good luck today
 

hedgehog

Mare
Had time so looked at another race.

Chelmsford 6.00, c4, 1m, std

EW extrodinair 1pt ew

T 10%, J 0/5 but 0/1/2, recent run, std 1/1/3, 1f either way 1/1/4, weight range 0/0 has never been so low a weight, best won 73, 0/0 at same OR or above so improving, course 1/1/2, AW 1/1/3, 5lb claim offsets OR increase, dropping 9lbs on lto in physical weight, won c5 nv, lto won 73 8/1, 2nd no OR but 4/9f and 3rd lto, 3rd no OR but 10/3 and 2nd nto.

This horse has every chance of winning

Danger cote d'Azur, trainer and jockey have only had 1 run each recently, jockey 0/1/5, won on the going, won in the trip range, best 3rd 1.75L 93 and has won with 93, has won twice with higher ORs, won on course, won on the AW, won c2, c3, and 2 c4s. Lto race wasn't bad with 2 lto winners competing. Winner lto 77 25/1, cote d'Azur 2nd shd 79 22/1, 3rd 83 17/2 so only 1lb in hand and has gone up 1lb in OR with no claimer to offset. Given its previous wins at higher OR and much higher class wins today could well be the start of a sequence for this horse. Very dangerous

Good luck today
 
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