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Off topic comments on the successful the uncouth longshots thread

hedgehog

Mare
I've started this thread as the longshots threads is purely for selections and results at the request of the thread creator @The Uncouth .

I think it is so successful that it naturally creates a buzz and comments which are good but can confuse the purpose of the thread.

@markfinn asked about the exchanges for this type of betting and I am a new convert but that is what I use. I can see the terms of each way will actually get you mot for the place and on the exchanges the win each way part is usually higher than the separate win only market.

Because of this I've been noticing it is possible to bet each way then lay the win portion for a bet to nothing of about a point and still have the place part at better terms going for you.

As said I'm new to this approach

Personally I don't think the exchanges have enough liquidity at the longer odds to ever make this a viable sole income. I can see why @The Uncouth uses bookies as that is not a problem.

Has anybody any comments please?
 

mick

Sire
I would label myself a SOB type of backer in respect that while the avg price of the horses i back is 10/1 > i seldom deploy any place money. I do not use the exchanges so cannot comment but it would be interesting to know what Bookmakers actually think about EW wagers. We are all aware of there dislike for so called snide ew when there is a very short priced fav, but i wonder there thoughts in general.?

When we see these options of insure bet or reduced odds for more places etc has anyone actually worked out the mathematics and ascertained the value involved, i ask because i do not know.? I cannot justify my preference for staking 1pt win level stakes but would say that i find the whole process of finding a horse i wish to back a complex one, so keeping my staking simple best suits the mind if not always the wallet. :)
 

hedgehog

Mare
@mick, I don't think the 3tbp or ew markets on the exchanges would have anything near the liquidity for your scale of betting other than for big meetings like Cheltenham or possibly just before the off.

I know @Chesham has had software written that can give place odds from the win odds but I think it would be difficult to do otherwise as there is some pretty complex mathematics involved.

I go by the weakest stat and try to work out from that the likelihood of a place then multiply by 5 for the win as the place market is usually 20% of the win odds.

Thinking about my daily crust I'd have needed to bet about 5 times my place bet today to give me a chance of getting that and use the weekend bets as a cushion for the inevitable losses. I don't think I've the balls nor the bank to make that possible. Even if I had the bank I'm still shy on balls. The liquidity problems with the place markets wouldn't help either. It's still very early days and today could easily be a losing correction of my results so far but unless you have multiple bookie accounts like @The Uncouth I can't see how to make this work other than for a small income.

Thank you for responding, I'm hoping this thread will be an active one

Good luck today
 
I'm hoping this thread will be an active one
interactivity is what forums are about - we could produce a list of horses every day with little or no info as to why they are prospects - there are couple of threads that do just that and are generally totally ignored - some may measure success in how many views a thread has ! better to measure it in how many interactions that's where the learning and improvement comes from.

Good luck with this new thread I know it will do well and provide interest.
 

Chesham

Sire
Hi @hedgehog

Just retitle this Thread Headgehogs EW Longshots and ask @dave58 to move your successful Posts on the Long Shot thread to here, along with the comments in response to your post . That will clear unwanted posts that Uncouth complained about, he did say he was happy when it was just him posting. Quote ” Quote “I was posting exclusively on my lonesome at the beginning and enjoyed it,” To be fair it will enable the rest of us to interact with you, as we are reluctant to post anything on the Uncouth Thread, but obviously want to interact with you.
well done with your recent success, I am well impressed.
 
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Ferdy

Colt
All the best with this @hedgehog.
For what it is worth my modus operandi with mostly shorter priced horses is for 25% win and 75% place.
 
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davejb

Mare
I second (well, probably 5th or more by now) the above @hedgehog, I certainly enjoy your EW selections posts and like the idea of being able to interact with yourself and others without worrying I'm causing offence.... my brain goes off topic quite readily I'm afraid!

Exchange betting isn't something I've spent a lot of time on - I started betting on the Betfair Exchange but find I'm happier on the Sportsbook, but I'd be more than happy to see a few examples of how the exchange pans out for place betting. You and @Outlander have even got me looking at highly rated longshots, I've managed 2 good picks from 6 today so doubt I'd be profitable given the inevitable day of losers, but it's an interesting starting point if I can tidy the plan up a bit.

Good luck with this new thread.
Dave
 

Ferdy

Colt
I rarely use the Betfair Sportsbook their prices are not that good but I think they still give you BOG. You will normally get much better prices on the Exchange, I usually like to bet within 10 minutes of post time but quite often have to take an earlier price. You can always put a higher bid in with the option of taking Betfair SP if not matched.
 

hedgehog

Mare
Gentlemen I've just congratulated @The Uncouth as one of his selections today placed.

I may be wrong but I think he is new to forums so hasn't discovered that the off topic stuff is where the gold is, the blindingly brilliant idea or profitable angle. I'd not like to think of him being ignored when he has shown himself to post successful selections with good reasoning which is all that can be asked of a poster. This might make me unpopular but I feel he has shown me another way which at this point is doing well and he has demonstrated that the approach works over time giving me hope, as a result I will continue to post on his thread and honour his request to remain on topic while posting there. I'll continue to congratulate his successes and try to be supportive when things aren't working out.

I am not disrespecting anybody on this site which is why I started this thread, to respect @The Uncouth s views and also to respect the other posters needs to contribute good ideas and also my tendency to go way off topic with my whinging.

Please everybody, do not take this as in any way a rebuke but as my way of honouring everybody's wishes

@Chesham, the fact you are well impressed is high praise and I am deeply pleased, thank you very much

Good luck today
 

dave58

Administrator
@hedgehog I am sure that you haven't put anyone's nose out of joint, most of us here know you as a valued and respected member of the forum, and I am sure we can all see where you are coming from.
If you do want anything changed feel free to ask - the thread title will take all of a couple of minutes so that's easy , if you want posts moving it's no problem but you'll have to bear with me as I will have to do them singly, so it will take a bit longer.
 

nigel90

Colt
Very interesting thread @hedgehog .

I have always found the "How to bet each way" conundrum a difficult one to crack and still struggle with it but only because I like to make sure I am getting value on both the win and the place portion of the bet and experience tells me that it is almost impossible to get both.
When the bookies price up a race the front end of the market reflects more accurately the true chances of a given horse whereas the middle and back end of the book are nearly always priced too short and therefore any value offered in favour of the punter by the place terms is negated or worse by the complete lack of value on the win place part of the bet. Obviously if one works out what one thinks are the true chances of a horse and spots a rick in the bookies prices then backing each way (depending on the number of runners) offers a double bonus.
As a general rule I will consider and each way bet with the bookies if the field size is close to their terms and the horse is at the front of the market and certainly use the exchange at prices over 8/1 and put the place bet on the place market. Needless to say I don't look at a race and try to work out what the real chances of each horse are.
 
I second (well, probably 5th or more by now) the above @hedgehog, I certainly enjoy your EW selections posts and like the idea of being able to interact with yourself and others without worrying I'm causing offence.... my brain goes off topic quite readily I'm afraid!

Exchange betting isn't something I've spent a lot of time on - I started betting on the Betfair Exchange but find I'm happier on the Sportsbook, but I'd be more than happy to see a few examples of how the exchange pans out for place betting. You and @Outlander have even got me looking at highly rated longshots, I've managed 2 good picks from 6 today so doubt I'd be profitable given the inevitable day of losers, but it's an interesting starting point if I can tidy the plan up a bit.

Good luck with this new thread.
Dave
This could be the ideal time to concentrate on outsiders and each way betting , I noticed about 2 weeks ago Paddy Power changed its MO regarding prices , they now track the exchange and the claim they have better prices on most horses, this is true but not ideal for most punters because in nearly every race you see the fancied horses shorter than the current official board prices , obviously they are doing this so they can’t get caught out by arbers, but the upside is they are bigger than the board prices on most of the big priced horses, so the value has increased for each way betting on outsiders compared to what is has been in the past, this is even better when they have big field handicaps on a Saturday and you can get sometimes first 7 places on outsiders at much bigger than the board prices in the 10 mins running up to the race, 25/1 shots at 35/1, 50/1 shots at 110/1, obviously this is because they are tracking the exchange and you can probably get even bigger on there, but at least it makes it more competitively priced on the outsider for those that use traditional bookies , you can also see other bookies knocking outsiders out to compete , so anyone who likesbetting bigger prices the gap between what’s on offer with the bookies and on the exchanges just got much smaller.
 
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Graeme

Dam
Good for you @hedgehog both for the thread and for your recent wins - well played.

Must admit being a relatively recent convert to Betfair SP for bigger priced horses - either for straight win or 25/75 win and loaded place as suggested.

If you have multiple bookie and exchange accounts though it really does pay to shop around and put on win and place elements separately where you can to get best price and over 8/1 for the win as suggested is a good place to be looking for that.

You don't really need to keep big balances in each bookie as much now either with many using either Paypal or faster payment debit card schemes so many can go in and out much more at will (once the account has been fully verified etc).

Scraping every bit of value out of each race is a must as it goes some way to balancing out the long losing runs that are inevitable when fishing in the wider end of the market. That said there are plenty of plots and extreme conditions that can highlight good chances every single day.

All the best on your venture - and have to say I find the concept of one of the board nicest posters putting anyone's nose out of joint quite strange ;-)

Cheers
 

hedgehog

Mare
I've noticed that @Outlander, paddy power always seems bigger.

I also think it is a good idea for @davejb to look at the long priced horses. If his top 2 rated is independent of the odds it sounds like a winner.

Sorry if I didn't thank you earlier for all the positive comments by those that have posted. Please accept my thanks now
 

davejb

Mare
Yes @Ferdy I can still get BOG with Betfair sportsbook, this suits quite well as I usually place bets anything from 30 mins to 4 hrs before the start so can take a price that is sometimes better than SP, and get SP on those occasions it is worse. This works quite well, I'd say I'm benefiting from the deal pretty often. Also there's the option to increase the number of places - at the cost of reduced prices - for EW. That doesn't mean the exchange isn't worth looking at, especially for place betting, simply that for the most part I don't bet EW so haven't felt the need to go that route (yet).

@hedgehog - I agree with @dave58 mate, nobody could take offence at your posts, your behaviour on this forum is/has been exemplary.
I have, of course, been editing things to produce a 'top 2 rated' listing to make the location of outsiders a bit quicker, it'll perhaps also help me figure out a method of filtering the number down a bit. Today's second such race, the 12.25 at Market Rasen, produced Levasseur (top rated) who ran second at 40/1 (about 14 l behind mind) - I had to check that they paid out on 2nd place in 5 horse races! Not many others came up though....
Dave
 

hedgehog

Mare
@davejb, 40/1 would be about 20% the place so 8/1 and the exchange would be bigger than the bookie odds so the place would be bigger. Potentially paying something like 10/1 which makes up for a lot of lost bets.

I look at handicaps as the odds are better and I also demand the horse has placed, 1 2 or 3, in one of it's last 3 runs. That's because I think the trainer has to have some hope of a good result.
 
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