David Punshon
Yearling
Just wondering has anybody successfully incorporated LTO Odds To Runner Ratio in to their ratings
Odds to runner ratio
- Thread starter David Punshon
- Start date
Boots
Stallion
Its useful in its own right
David Punshon and several of us do use it but trying to insert it into a rating will most probably just ruin your rating.
As a rule of thumb it is better to keep the number of items in your ratings to a minimum and just have more ratings, then use your experience and judgement about what is important in this race.
David Punshon and several of us do use it but trying to insert it into a rating will most probably just ruin your rating.As a rule of thumb it is better to keep the number of items in your ratings to a minimum and just have more ratings, then use your experience and judgement about what is important in this race.
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David Punshon
Yearling
Yes I have used it for a good time now and it is incorporated in to a good proportion of my HRB systems. I suspect you are right regarding the ratings
David Punshon
Yearling
Yes I found that too
arkle55
Sire
David Punshon
Yearling
Trainers with the most runners. Losses halve straight away
Boots
Stallion
Good idea
David Punshon but what I really meant was to pick out a trainer, focus on what that trainer is good at, then look at the distribution of the ratio. That way you might find something useful but you also don't limit yourself to looking in the 0-1 category You always have to remember that its about profit and not s/r.
David Punshon but what I really meant was to pick out a trainer, focus on what that trainer is good at, then look at the distribution of the ratio. That way you might find something useful but you also don't limit yourself to looking in the 0-1 category You always have to remember that its about profit and not s/r.
arkle55
Sire
I find that the way i use HRB, the odds to runner stat is not one that fits in on a regular basis for some reason.
Arkle
arkle55
Sire
Profit yes, but the strike rate will depend on how long you are prepared to wait for the next win. No one knows when or how long the next wining or losing streak will last. AE and CHI i believe are a guide for this situation.
Arkle
arkle55
Sire
As
ArkRoyal and
David Punshon have shown odds to runner ratio improves strike rate. My question is has the improvement come about because the odds to runner ratio even though not intended is now acting as a back fitted stat.
Even though at some point the odds to runner ratio has to be brought in, otherwise how else can it be tested for different angles. But should other angles be applied at the same time.
I think the rule of thumb would be the more stats included the more back fitted the system would be. However how do we find the dividing line between reliable and back fitted not reliable, how do we find the dividing line.
If anyone has a answer please be gentle with the answer as this could be a very complicated thing to understand.
Arkle
ArkRoyal and
David Punshon have shown odds to runner ratio improves strike rate. My question is has the improvement come about because the odds to runner ratio even though not intended is now acting as a back fitted stat.Even though at some point the odds to runner ratio has to be brought in, otherwise how else can it be tested for different angles. But should other angles be applied at the same time.
I think the rule of thumb would be the more stats included the more back fitted the system would be. However how do we find the dividing line between reliable and back fitted not reliable, how do we find the dividing line.
If anyone has a answer please be gentle with the answer as this could be a very complicated thing to understand.
Arkle
retriever
Stallion
Couldn't begin to answer your question
arkle55 ......where do we draw the line re. back fitting.......ongoing HRB dilemma for me 
Don't know if this is of interest. The other day I pondered what would I get if I combined the best three Owners with the best three Trainers with the best three Jockeys for the last couple of flat years. For whatever reason, I only ended with two Trainers.
What of the above is back fitting? I wanted to work within a certain odds range - I can always refuse to bet if outside this range.
Same with the size of the field - it's what I wanted to work with. The other elements of younger horses (age) that are proven (placings), possibly gaining an advantage by the class move or not.
And the interesting thing is - relating to this thread - is that if I look at the LR Odds to Runner ratio for the above I get this:-
Just three bets over 1.0
Obviously this system cannot get a 'reasonable' test this year, I don't suppose, but may in the future.
arkle55 ......where do we draw the line re. back fitting.......ongoing HRB dilemma for me Don't know if this is of interest. The other day I pondered what would I get if I combined the best three Owners with the best three Trainers with the best three Jockeys for the last couple of flat years. For whatever reason, I only ended with two Trainers.
What of the above is back fitting? I wanted to work within a certain odds range - I can always refuse to bet if outside this range.
Same with the size of the field - it's what I wanted to work with. The other elements of younger horses (age) that are proven (placings), possibly gaining an advantage by the class move or not.
And the interesting thing is - relating to this thread - is that if I look at the LR Odds to Runner ratio for the above I get this:-
Just three bets over 1.0
Obviously this system cannot get a 'reasonable' test this year, I don't suppose, but may in the future.
arkle55
Sire
Owners are a newer addition to HRB. Godolphin go back to 2012, yet Saeed Bin Suroor goes back to 2003 and has far as i know Suroor has only ever trained for Godolphin.
Arkle
retriever
Stallion
Thanks for that
arkle55 It was the first time I had used Owners in HRB - it was just curiosity and bit of fun really.
But I thought, more interesting, relating to whether LR Odds to Runner ratio should be incorporated into a system (or ratings) was the fact that the results of my 'play' showed the majority Under 1.0 after finishing.
So would that indicate a 'stable' system I wonder?
arkle55 It was the first time I had used Owners in HRB - it was just curiosity and bit of fun really.But I thought, more interesting, relating to whether LR Odds to Runner ratio should be incorporated into a system (or ratings) was the fact that the results of my 'play' showed the majority Under 1.0 after finishing.
So would that indicate a 'stable' system I wonder?
Chesham
Sire
Although not within the HRB Database ,As
Even though at some point the odds to runner ratio has to be brought in, otherwise how else can it be tested for different angles. But should other angles be applied at the same time.
I think the rule of thumb would be the more stats included the more back fitted the system would be. However how do we find the dividing line between reliable and back fitted not reliable, how do we find the dividing line.
If anyone has a answer please be gentle with the answer as this could be a very complicated thing to understand.
Arkle
mlmrob introduced to the Class Sheets the Odds to Runners Ratio for the Winner of LTO race, useful if the horse in question may not have the lowest Ratio but has come form a race where the winner did have a low Odds/Runners RatioSee Post Yet another rating from hedgehog
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mlmrob
Sire
There is a constant in as much that 65% of all handicaps on the flat are won by a horse with a P/R of 0.9 or less. It is what you do with that information that is key.
