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New trainer-based jumps system

Morning all. I've written elsewhere on the forum about how over time I've gone off using individual trainer-based criteria. The reasons I posted were:
  • The individuals involved (i.e. the trainer or whomever is your system idea) did well coincidentally and probably won't repeat it again; or
  • They did very well and there was a good reason for it, but everybody else has noticed and it's probably not going to be profitable in the future as a result; or
  • They did very well, there was a good reason for it, and nobody else has noticed the thing you've noticed. But you don't know what that reason is, so as an idea to keep faith in for the future, it's sketchy.
I still broadly stand by that, but I'm still curious to test these ideas over time, so with the national hunt season getting into full swing, I'm going to test on this thread an individual trainer-based system.

I'd expect a qualifier every few days. Probably 100 or so come the end of the season (if I keep it going that long...). Roughly 18% strike rate so losing runs perfectly likely even if this does well.

As with most of my systems, I'll do 1 point win to Betfair SP. I'll measure strike rate, P/L, ROI and A/E.
 
I'll reveal a bit more in the coming weeks, but I'm basically looking at trainers that have been ahead of the market in the last 5-10 years with handicap debutants, and testing whether that remains the case this year.
 
3-0030/10/2023Iolaos Du Mou (FR)Nicky HendersonHUNTINGDON (GB)32.001.38
25%​
£10.25​
Trainer Class today
3-0030/10/2023Iolaos Du Mou (FR)Nicky HendersonHUNTINGDON (GB)748.001.29
21%​
£253.43​
Trainer Top Weight within 3lbs

Nicky H does well with Horses near the top of the Handicap and does well in this grade
 
I've done a fair bit with backing trainers for one reason for another, it can lead to some nice coups but at the same time fortunes can change at a yard quite quickly and if you don't twig that you can be left holding your dick in your hand
 
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Thanks pawras pawras - I actually agree (albeit I might phrase it differently!). I reference in my opening post a longer thread I've written before as to why I'm not a big fan of T/J-based systems as essentially you're handing over your thought process to another individual/yard and you're dependent on them continuing whatever success they've had (which may or may not have been coincidental anyway). But all the more reason to enjoy testing one or two ideas. Fwiw, I'm doing literally £1 on these to BSP. No big deal.
 
Thanks pawras pawras - I actually agree (albeit I might phrase it differently!). I reference in my opening post a longer thread I've written before as to why I'm not a big fan of T/J-based systems as essentially you're handing over your thought process to another individual/yard and you're dependent on them continuing whatever success they've had (which may or may not have been coincidental anyway). But all the more reason to enjoy testing one or two ideas. Fwiw, I'm doing literally £1 on these to BSP. No big deal.
I think anything re jockeys has a bigger health warning.

Re trainer trends , for me to be interested they need a fairly big sample of bets over a several years to try and reduce the coincidence element
 
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