• Hi Guest, The software has been updated but I have not had a chance to tweak anything yet.
    It took longer than I had hoped, so I just turned it on and hope everything is OK
    If you spot anything that does not look rigfhyt then please let me know.
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Hi Guest, If you are seeing that Lurker has appeared under your name then please take a look here to see why. AR

New System Test

Hi all,

I have trialed so many systems before, so here is my latest.

This one looks at the previous ratings of each horse, to generate the probability of it winning its next race.

The attached file provides the top rated selection for each race, which i will stake 1 point each way on odds 5/1 or over, and 1 point to win on odds of less that 5/1

Lets see how things go!!
 

Attachments

Last edited:
For those who don't have Excel .....

DateTimeTrackHorseForecast Odds
17/01/2020
12:00:00
LingfieldMamillius
16
17/01/2020
12:30:00
LingfieldThe British Lion (IRE)
6
17/01/2020
13:00:00
LingfieldSir Rodneyredblood
4
17/01/2020
13:10:00
ChepstowOn The Road (IRE)
8
17/01/2020
13:20:00
MusselburghLastofthecosmics
10
17/01/2020
13:35:00
LingfieldStar Of St Louis (FR)
4
17/01/2020
13:45:00
ChepstowGetaway Fred (IRE)
1.38
17/01/2020
13:55:00
MusselburghHigh Noon (IRE)
1.75
17/01/2020
14:05:00
LingfieldSavalas (IRE)
2.75
17/01/2020
14:15:00
ChepstowKingsplace (IRE)
0.8
17/01/2020
14:40:00
LingfieldTerri Rules (IRE)
1.75
17/01/2020
14:50:00
ChepstowNewtide (IRE)
3
17/01/2020
15:00:00
MusselburghGoldencard (IRE)
3.5
17/01/2020
15:10:00
LingfieldBerrahri (IRE)
4.5
17/01/2020
15:15:00
NewcastleGood Man (IRE)
10
17/01/2020
15:20:00
ChepstowPink Legend
5
17/01/2020
15:30:00
MusselburghGraystown (IRE)
5
17/01/2020
15:45:00
NewcastleSweet Marmalade (IRE)
3.5
17/01/2020
15:55:00
ChepstowDun Bay Creek
12
17/01/2020
16:15:00
NewcastleFirst Response
4
17/01/2020
16:45:00
NewcastleProceeding
10
17/01/2020
17:00:00
DundalkPaistiul (IRE)
4
17/01/2020
17:15:00
NewcastleHeath Charnock
2
17/01/2020
17:30:00
DundalkNimitz (IRE)
6
17/01/2020
18:00:00
DundalkEveryhouronthehour (IRE)
4.5
17/01/2020
18:15:00
NewcastleWasntexpectingthat
3
17/01/2020
18:30:00
DundalkMunaajaat (IRE)
4.5
17/01/2020
18:45:00
NewcastleHot Hot Hot
3
17/01/2020
19:00:00
DundalkWill Be King (IRE)
4.5
17/01/2020
19:30:00
DundalkLaurel Grove (IRE)
4.5
17/01/2020
20:30:00
DundalkTommy Taylor (USA)
5
 
Well what a day. Mamillus lost by a head in the first race of the day at 20/1. This would have resulted in an overall profit on the day, though it wasn't to be.

Today resulted in just 4 winners from 29 selections (2 non-runners), eight 2nds (at odds of 20/1, 8/1, and 4/1) and three 3rds (at odds of 7/1, 5/1 and 4/1).

Overall, this resulted in a total loss of 13.96 points on the day.

Am I disappointed with this? No, as there were 11 horses placed. It's a game of fine margins that decide the winners and the losers.

Today was a losing day, that could have easily been a winning day.
 

Attachments

In my book this is a great result, if someone gets 50% plus of their selections...I take my hat off to that person.
How people like you come up with systems tables I will never know, totally baffles me.

Keep going, I hope you will still put selections up, so I can steal them :)
Well done again @giuseppe_esq

I sign off very impressed.
 
In my book this is a great result, if someone gets 50% plus of their selections...I take my hat off to that person.
How people like you come up with systems tables I will never know, totally baffles me.

Keep going, I hope you will still put selections up, so I can steal them :)
Well done again @giuseppe_esq

I sign off very impressed.
Hi @The Uncouth

Thanks, but I don't think you need any tips from you as your selections seem to be doing well regularly.

Well done!

Regards
Giuseppe
 
For those without Excel ...................

DateTimeTrackHorseForecast Odds
25/01/2020
12:00:00
LingfieldItwouldberudenotto
3.33
25/01/2020
12:20:00
DoncasterJelski (GER)
11
25/01/2020
12:25:00
FairyhouseAlfies Choice (IRE)
33
25/01/2020
12:35:00
LingfieldAbadie
2
25/01/2020
12:55:00
DoncasterLisp (IRE)
3.5
25/01/2020
13:00:00
FairyhouseDakota Moirette (FR)
7
25/01/2020
13:10:00
LingfieldCliffs Of Dooneen (IRE)
5.5
25/01/2020
13:15:00
CheltenhamEncore Champs (IRE)
25
25/01/2020
13:20:00
UttoxeterCook The Books (IRE)
3.5
25/01/2020
13:30:00
DoncasterMahlermade (IRE)
2.75
25/01/2020
13:35:00
FairyhouseCapture The Drama (IRE)
16
25/01/2020
13:45:00
LingfieldDromara King
5
25/01/2020
13:50:00
CheltenhamLalor (GER)
6
25/01/2020
13:55:00
UttoxeterBig Nasty
6
25/01/2020
14:05:00
DoncasterBoss Man Fred (IRE)
2
25/01/2020
14:20:00
LingfieldPower Link (USA)
1.5
25/01/2020
14:25:00
CheltenhamTop Ville Ben (IRE)
7.5
25/01/2020
14:30:00
UttoxeterFlowery (IRE)
12
25/01/2020
14:40:00
DoncasterLady Buttons
2
25/01/2020
14:45:00
FairyhouseExit Poll (IRE)
4
25/01/2020
15:00:00
CheltenhamHarry Senior (IRE)
4
25/01/2020
15:05:00
UttoxeterLamanver Odyssey
2.5
25/01/2020
15:15:00
DoncasterChidswell (IRE)
12
25/01/2020
15:30:00
LingfieldFull Speight (USA)
5.5
25/01/2020
15:35:00
CheltenhamIf The Cap Fits (IRE)
2.75
25/01/2020
15:40:00
UttoxeterCave Top (IRE)
18
25/01/2020
15:55:00
FairyhouseMoyode Lady (IRE)
8.5
25/01/2020
16:05:00
LingfieldUpavon
14
25/01/2020
16:10:00
CheltenhamBack On The Lash
10
25/01/2020
16:15:00
UttoxeterComber Mill (FR)
14
25/01/2020
16:30:00
KemptonSolar Park (IRE)
12
25/01/2020
17:00:00
KemptonLimaro Prospect (IRE)
3
25/01/2020
17:30:00
KemptonDouble Reflection
7.5
25/01/2020
18:00:00
KemptonNarjes
20
25/01/2020
18:30:00
KemptonOrions Shore (IRE)
14
25/01/2020
19:00:00
KemptonRock Boy Grey (IRE)
6.5
25/01/2020
19:30:00
KemptonArgus (IRE)
20
25/01/2020
20:00:00
KemptonJamaican Jill
3
 
Just 4 wins (at 8/1 and 4/1) and 10 placed (including those at odds of 16/1 and 8/1) from 38 selections

I have tweaked some of the multipliers used to calculate the ratings and will try to test these tomorrow (time permitting)


DateTimeTrackHorseForecast OddsResult
25/01/2020
12:00:00
LingfieldItwouldberudenotto
3.33
25/01/2020
12:20:00
DoncasterJelski (GER)
11
25/01/2020
12:25:00
FairyhouseAlfies Choice (IRE)
33
25/01/2020
12:35:00
LingfieldAbadie
2
3rd @ 11/4
25/01/2020
12:55:00
DoncasterLisp (IRE)
3.5
25/01/2020
13:00:00
FairyhouseDakota Moirette (FR)
7
25/01/2020
13:10:00
LingfieldCliffs Of Dooneen (IRE)
5.5
25/01/2020
13:15:00
CheltenhamEncore Champs (IRE)
25
25/01/2020
13:20:00
UttoxeterCook The Books (IRE)
3.5
3rd @ 9/2
25/01/2020
13:30:00
DoncasterMahlermade (IRE)
2.75
25/01/2020
13:35:00
FairyhouseCapture The Drama (IRE)
16
25/01/2020
13:45:00
LingfieldDromara King
5
3rd @ 3/1
25/01/2020
13:50:00
CheltenhamLalor (GER)
6
3rd @ 6/1
25/01/2020
13:55:00
UttoxeterBig Nasty
6
2nd @ 4/1
25/01/2020
14:05:00
DoncasterBoss Man Fred (IRE)
2
25/01/2020
14:20:00
LingfieldPower Link (USA)
1.5
2nd @ 5/4
25/01/2020
14:25:00
CheltenhamTop Ville Ben (IRE)
7.5
25/01/2020
14:30:00
UttoxeterFlowery (IRE)
12
2nd @ 8/1
25/01/2020
14:40:00
DoncasterLady Buttons
2
1st @ 6/4
25/01/2020
14:45:00
FairyhouseExit Poll (IRE)
4
1st @ 9/2
25/01/2020
15:00:00
CheltenhamHarry Senior (IRE)
4
1st @ 4/1
25/01/2020
15:05:00
UttoxeterLamanver Odyssey
2.5
25/01/2020
15:15:00
DoncasterChidswell (IRE)
12
3rd @ 16/1
25/01/2020
15:30:00
LingfieldFull Speight (USA)
5.5
25/01/2020
15:35:00
CheltenhamIf The Cap Fits (IRE)
2.75
25/01/2020
15:40:00
UttoxeterCave Top (IRE)
18
25/01/2020
15:55:00
FairyhouseMoyode Lady (IRE)
8.5
2nd @ 11/2
25/01/2020
16:05:00
LingfieldUpavon
14
25/01/2020
16:10:00
CheltenhamBack On The Lash
10
1st @ 8/1
25/01/2020
16:15:00
UttoxeterComber Mill (FR)
14
25/01/2020
16:30:00
KemptonSolar Park (IRE)
12
25/01/2020
17:00:00
KemptonLimaro Prospect (IRE)
3
25/01/2020
17:30:00
KemptonDouble Reflection
7.5
25/01/2020
18:00:00
KemptonNarjes
20
25/01/2020
18:30:00
KemptonOrions Shore (IRE)
14
25/01/2020
19:00:00
KemptonRock Boy Grey (IRE)
6.5
25/01/2020
19:30:00
KemptonArgus (IRE)
20
25/01/2020
20:00:00
KemptonJamaican Jill
3
3rd @ 9/2

 
Nice one, @giuseppe_esq. Good luck.
Hi @Steeplechasing and @simon boardman

Many thanks.

I have seen both of your posts and you have provided some amazing write-ups about the reasoning behind your selections! Well done. I am sure you will be very popular on this forum and will help many others learn from you.

I fall into the category of "don't always provide the reasoning behind my selections" which can be frowned upon. I have got to the stage where I think that this forum may not be suitable for how i make my selections, and feel that it may be more appropriate to post on a more technology based forum.

This is why I put the message 'I try to predict WHAT horse will win, not WHY it will win'. in my message footer. This is not meant to offend, it just says what I do on the tin.

Now my background, I am not a horse race bettor, I only watch horse racing on weekends and I have a very limited knowledge.

My knowledge has improved by learning from some of the amazing people on here, whom i cannot thank enough, nor will I ever forget.

I am self-employed, working as a Business Intelligence Consultant, which can be very demanding at times.

So why am I here? To be honest, I have spent the past 2 years or so trying to develop a fully automated system to create my own horse racing rating using historical data using a variety of data processing techniques, ranging from data mining, creating speed ratings, my personal official ratings etc. I love working with data to try and predict future outcomes (probabilities).

The difficulty isn't in creating the automated systems, it is in picking enough winners to be profitable.

One thing I have learnt, is that, despite the vast amount of data on horse races that is available, this task is very difficult and complex. I often feel it is borderline impossible. I am not a mathematician, so have tried to learn a variety of mathematical techniques in my efforts to create some effective ratings.

I run several automated scripts to generate the ratings for every daily racecard in the UK and Ireland, which now takes me approximately one hour per day. I could probably refine this to get this down to less than an hour.

I have got to the stage where I now need to tweak some variable values to try and improve the selection accuracy and returns.

I may never succeed, but I won't ever stop trying.

Goodluck in all your future bets.

Regards
Giuseppe
 
Hello @giuseppe_esq , i am always on the look out for a set of ratings that can identify horses that have a good probability of placing, hence the reason why your posts caught my attention ! once this gets under your skin , it can be very hard to let go !
To expect horses to run like clockwork and run up to any rating , speed figure etc created each time they race , can be very frustrating when this does not occur ! Anybody who has the computer skills to attempt this feat has my admiration , i have tried many pay for services and while they do produce some Value winners , consistency is not their forte .
this is the latest software i have been trying out
good luck anyway !
 
Hello @giuseppe_esq , i am always on the look out for a set of ratings that can identify horses that have a good probability of placing, hence the reason why your posts caught my attention ! once this gets under your skin , it can be very hard to let go !
To expect horses to run like clockwork and run up to any rating , speed figure etc created each time they race , can be very frustrating when this does not occur ! Anybody who has the computer skills to attempt this feat has my admiration , i have tried many pay for services and while they do produce some Value winners , consistency is not their forte .
this is the latest software i have been trying out
good luck anyway !
Hi @simon boardman

Many thanks for your reply.

I source my data from HorseRaceBase and develop the import and processing scripts myself.

I have never used any other website, as I don't want to spend too much on subscriptions (I am a tight Yorkshireman after all)

Thanks for the link, I will take a look at this.

Regards
Giuseppe
 
Early list of selections for tomorrow's racecard!

Made a few tweaks to some multipliers after today's results, so see how things go!

Will stake 1 point to win on all the selections listed (below 10/1), and 1 point each way on any horse with odds of 10/1 or more
:hi:

DateTimeTrackHorseForecast Odds
26/01/2020
13:00:00
SedgefieldMasters Apprentice (IRE)
7
26/01/2020
13:00:00
SedgefieldCrackdeloust (FR)
4.5
26/01/2020
13:10:00
NaasGarrison Commander (IRE)
14
26/01/2020
13:10:00
NaasAnnie Pender (IRE)
8
26/01/2020
13:20:00
FontwellSheilas Fancy (IRE)
33
26/01/2020
13:20:00
FontwellRuby Yeats
8
26/01/2020
13:30:00
SedgefieldSkipping On (IRE)
7
26/01/2020
13:30:00
SedgefieldOscar Wilde (IRE)
2.5
26/01/2020
13:40:00
NaasBig Blue
25
26/01/2020
13:40:00
NaasOff You Go (IRE)
2.75
26/01/2020
13:50:00
FontwellMab Dab (IRE)
7
26/01/2020
13:50:00
FontwellGood News
6
26/01/2020
14:00:00
SedgefieldDesaray Girl (FR)
0.33
26/01/2020
14:00:00
SedgefieldApril Rising
33
26/01/2020
14:10:00
NaasRonald Pump
1.5
26/01/2020
14:10:00
NaasSpyglass Hill (IRE)
16
26/01/2020
14:20:00
FontwellBeaufort West (IRE)
0.5
26/01/2020
14:20:00
FontwellGrand Slam (IRE)
4
26/01/2020
14:30:00
SedgefieldDame du Soir (FR)
3
26/01/2020
14:30:00
SedgefieldChampagne City
7
26/01/2020
14:40:00
NaasFoxy Jacks (IRE)
2.5
26/01/2020
14:40:00
NaasFarceur Du Large (FR)
7
26/01/2020
14:50:00
FontwellSky Full Of Stars (IRE)
6
26/01/2020
14:50:00
FontwellChivers (IRE)
4
26/01/2020
15:00:00
SedgefieldStamp Your Feet (IRE)
8
26/01/2020
15:00:00
SedgefieldWhateva Next (IRE)
12
26/01/2020
15:10:00
NaasMister Eddman (IRE)
4
26/01/2020
15:10:00
NaasLean And Keen (IRE)
25
26/01/2020
15:20:00
FontwellRuacana
7
26/01/2020
15:20:00
FontwellAiguille Rouge (FR)
12
26/01/2020
15:30:00
SedgefieldLate Date (IRE)
6
26/01/2020
15:30:00
SedgefieldPutdecashonthedash (IRE)
5
26/01/2020
15:40:00
NaasBest Behavior (IRE)
4.5
26/01/2020
15:40:00
NaasThe Caddy Rose (IRE)
8
26/01/2020
15:50:00
FontwellBermeo (IRE)
10
26/01/2020
15:50:00
FontwellThe Brothers (IRE)
2.5
26/01/2020
16:00:00
SedgefieldHighwayman
33
26/01/2020
16:00:00
SedgefieldSnougar (IRE)
10
26/01/2020
16:10:00
NaasEdwulf
2
26/01/2020
16:10:00
NaasBillaway (IRE)
2.75
26/01/2020
16:20:00
FontwellFil Dariane (FR)
5
26/01/2020
16:20:00
FontwellEt Moi Alors (FR)
4.5
 
Selections for today.

DateTimeTrackHorseForecast Odds
27/01/2020
13:30:00
PlumptonCap Du Mathan (FR)
1.38
27/01/2020
13:30:00
PlumptonCastlegrace Rose (IRE)
14
27/01/2020
13:45:00
KelsoNo Hiding Place (IRE)
6.5
27/01/2020
13:45:00
KelsoPerfect Man (IRE)
4.5
27/01/2020
14:00:00
PlumptonWenceslaus (GER)
1.38
27/01/2020
14:00:00
PlumptonVicenzo Mio (FR)
3.5
27/01/2020
14:15:00
KelsoManetti (IRE)
1.88
27/01/2020
14:15:00
KelsoHalcyon Days
12
27/01/2020
14:30:00
PlumptonCat Tiger (FR)
1
27/01/2020
14:30:00
PlumptonMoroder (IRE)
5
27/01/2020
14:45:00
KelsoRoad Warrior
14
27/01/2020
14:45:00
KelsoSkyhill (IRE)
1.38
27/01/2020
15:00:00
PlumptonWhiskey In The Jar (IRE)
5
27/01/2020
15:00:00
PlumptonHideaway Vic (IRE)
1.88
27/01/2020
15:15:00
KelsoRiver Frost
12
27/01/2020
15:15:00
KelsoThe Con Man (IRE)
2.5
27/01/2020
15:30:00
PlumptonAsk The Weatherman
8
27/01/2020
15:30:00
PlumptonDylanseoghan (IRE)
4
27/01/2020
15:45:00
KelsoEbony Jewel (IRE)
2.25
27/01/2020
15:45:00
KelsoRaemoir (FR)
100
27/01/2020
16:00:00
PlumptonBard Of Brittany
3.5
27/01/2020
16:00:00
PlumptonDream Baie (FR)
10
27/01/2020
16:30:00
WolverhamptonManjaam (IRE)
7.5
27/01/2020
16:30:00
WolverhamptonEye of The Storm (IRE)
25
27/01/2020
17:00:00
WolverhamptonXian Express (IRE)
1.25
27/01/2020
17:00:00
WolverhamptonLili Wen Fach (IRE)
3
27/01/2020
17:30:00
WolverhamptonRuby Gates (IRE)
10
27/01/2020
17:30:00
WolverhamptonMemory Hill (IRE)
8
27/01/2020
18:00:00
WolverhamptonBrenbar (USA)
2
27/01/2020
18:00:00
WolverhamptonSherpa Trail (USA)
3.33
27/01/2020
18:30:00
WolverhamptonLucky Lodge
3.5
27/01/2020
18:30:00
WolverhamptonGlory of Paris (IRE)
6.5
27/01/2020
19:00:00
WolverhamptonExceed Loose
5.5
27/01/2020
19:00:00
WolverhamptonSolar Heights (IRE)
4
27/01/2020
19:30:00
WolverhamptonGlorious Caesar
4.5
27/01/2020
19:30:00
WolverhamptonUtopian Lad (IRE)
6
 

Steeplechasing

Yearling
Almost 5 points yesterday is fine @giuseppe_esq. You've taken on a much bigger challenge than I have (and perhaps others here) in that I pick and choose what I believe are the most favourable subjects for tipping. You seem committed to producing your bets every day. That demands discipline. You deserve an awful lot of credit for your approach. In breaking down my own selections and. reasoning them out, that's part of my picking process and it helps me too, as well as anyone who might find useful information there. Keep going, my friend.
 

mick

Sire
@giuseppe_esq If your contributions to this forum where frowned upon you would not have earned green. While it would come as no surprise to learn that max interest is generated by posts which include the reasoning behind a selection the forum is here for members to post on all aspects and methods of punting. :)

You say above " I have got to the stage where I now need to tweak some variable values to try and improve the selection accuracy and returns" and i think if you elaborated on this and shared your thoughts Re which variables and why, this could generate some additional interest and contributions from others ( if this is what you seek).

It can be disheartening to run a thread which generates little interest at the beginning but what i have found is that tenacity can prevail. :) Anyway i hope you continue and best of for the outcome.
 
Last edited:
Hi @mick and @Steeplechasing

Many thanks for your messages and wise words.

You are correct Mick, when I or anyone provides just a list of selections, it won't generate much interest nor contribution as others cannot see anything to contribute to. I am not disheartened by the lack of response to my posts, and wouldn't expect anything more.

Those who create the detailed accounts of their selections deserve all the praise that they can get. I have nothing but respect for these people.

I will try to contribute more with my thought process for selecting a horse, as I i tried to in response to the UKBF Common Race forum today.

Back to the results. Today was a rare lucky day with 10 winners (two at 8/1) from 37 selections. There were also two placed bets (at 250/1 and 18/1).

The total return was 101.60 points, with a total staked of 43 points. This resulted in a total profit of 58.60 points for the day.

It is not often I experience these lucky days, so will not get too excited. Tomorrow could well be a heavy losing day. I always try to keep my feet firmly on the ground.

I will carry on testing the system as is for a while longer.

Regards
Giuseppe
 

Attachments

Top