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    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
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Neural network flat Hcap ratings

Chesham

Sire
These are neural network ratings for flat hcaps based on 8 years of data. Highest the best. I have put these on and will do for a couple of weeks . becuause its about time I put something on. Tony
Are you using Mark Litttlewoods Software to research your NN PicKS???
 

Chesham

Sire
No I have been using AI for thirty years , I use Neuroshell 2 which is very advanced pierce of software and does a lot of the hard work for you. Tony
Thanks Tony.
I had been looking at The software package that Mark Littlewood had developed and launched recently, but could not try it as it was Windows based. A few years back I collaborated with a chap who used NN Software to produce Probabilities and I guess going Back to “Punters Revenge “it has always fascinated me. Bill Benter certainly used it to its full potential. Like all things it’s finding the right data parameters To feed the NN with.

All the best with your NN Model Outputs
 

retriever

Gelding
An article you posted about Bill Benter is probably the best thing I've read on this forum to date Chesham Chesham
I hadn't heard of the fellow (or story) before that. It has swayed my betting approach towards forecasts and the like....an uphill challenge I have to admit though.
Some nice results in there T tony spencer for the top-rated.
 

Chesham

Sire
An article you posted about Bill Benter is probably the best thing I've read on this forum to date Chesham Chesham
I hadn't heard of the fellow (or story) before that. It has swayed my betting approach towards forecasts and the like....an uphill challenge I have to admit though.
Some nice results in there T tony spencer for the top-rated.
I think even though Benter knew the model would work, once he realised that he needed the Tote Pool Betting to be fed into the model, he had the finances to have multiple tickets going into the exotic bets . That is where one would really have to have the nerve to believe in whatever model that you were using.

I found that with Premium Bonds if you have the Maximum amount you have a payout nearly every month of the year , (as long as your luck is average) , but I have not hit the Million pay out yet. I like to think that I am in the queue and as far as I know, no one has won the Million payout more than once. Just A question of waiting to get to the front of the queue then LOL. Nice thing about Bonds is that you don’t lose your stake And I look forward to checking just after the first of the month , to See how lucky that I have been.(Or not)


It was my grandad who got me started as he bought £2 worth for me, when they first came out In the fifties . In 1974 I bought a £50 Block and it was around 2007 when one from that Block paid out £50 , so the Old Bonds still stand as much chance as the newer purchased ones.

I have never really give much study to the Exotic Bets , apart from the Place Pot if I am at a race meeting.
 
Last edited:

tony spencer

Yearling
This is on data since 2017 at Sp
this when the top rated is how many points clear
topRpprofitnorstk ratePtoAEEXPCHI
0.00
-£43​
115​
3%​
-0.37​
0.7​
0​
0.54​
1.00
-£99​
562​
15%​
-0.18​
0.93​
0​
0.52​
1.50
£10​
501​
19%​
0.02​
1.08​
0​
0.75​
2.00
-£53​
468​
17%​
-0.11​
0.95​
0​
0.23​
2.50
-£41​
390​
17%​
-0.1​
0.98​
0​
0.03​
3.00
£7​
353​
19%​
0.02​
1.07​
0​
0.41​
3.50
-£45​
346​
19%​
-0.13​
1.1​
0​
0.76​
4.00
-£93​
623​
18%​
-0.15​
0.93​
0​
0.7​
5.00
-£39​
504​
20%​
-0.08​
0.97​
0​
0.12​
6.00
£27​
405​
22%​
0.07​
1.05​
0​
0.25​
8.00
£19​
693​
21%​
0.03​
1.06​
0​
0.59​
10.00
£73​
459​
27%​
0.16​
1.18​
0​
4.28​
14.00
£86​
514​
27%​
0.17​
1.2​
0​
5.81​
20.00
£109​
319​
36%​
0.34​
1.32​
0​
12.69​
30.00
£50​
165​
38%​
0.3​
1.2​
0​
3.09​
50.00
£13​
41​
44%​
0.32​
1.27​
0​
1.55​
 

Stevet1859

Yearling
Thank you for posting this up Tony. Very interesting. Just taking today as a sample, (and if I understand it right) taking those 6 or more clear, then its a profit of almost 11 points at SP at 1pt level stakes. Be following to see how this develops.
 
I think even though Benter knew the model would work, once he realised that he needed the Tote Pool Betting to be fed into the model, he had the finances to have multiple tickets going into the exotic bets . That is where one would really have to have the nerve to believe in whatever model that you were using.

I found that with Premium Bonds if you have the Maximum amount you have a payout nearly every month of the year , (as long as your luck is average) , but I have not hit the Million pay out yet. I like to think that I am in the queue and as far as I know, no one has won the Million payout more than once. Just A question of waiting to get to the front of the queue then LOL. Nice thing about Bonds is that you don’t lose your stake And I look forward to checking just after the first of the month , to See how lucky that I have been.(Or not)


It was my grandad who got me started as he bought £2 worth for me, when they first came out In the fifties . In 1974 I bought a £50 Block and it was around 2007 when one from that Block paid out £50 , so the Old Bonds still stand as much chance as the newer purchased ones.

I have never really give much study to the Exotic Bets , apart from the Place Pot if I am at a race meeting.
Bentner won because of over generous rebates from Hong Kong jockey club, he was clever enough to realise he could break even or even lose and if he put in enough volume would get rich from rebates, rebates go away so do the opportunity, nobody can beat the tote with the huge takeouts unless they are getting handouts .This still goes on today I know people who have rebates but no where near as generous.
 

retriever

Gelding
Same here - my Grandma brought both my brother and me two £1 bonds each as kids. I think I saved up to £2k in these until my mid-twenties when I cashed in as I needed the money.
You really do need to have the maximum amount I think to make it worthwhile (£50k) as the chances of winning make it a very long queue indeed!!
If you thought the lottery at 14 million to 1 for the jackpot was high when it started, then look at the odds of a £1 bond winning a million.
Something like 1 in 34 billion !! (34,000,000,000).......gulp. I guess with the maximum holding it's only 680,000 to 1.....so not so bad :)

I generally prefer to do Exactas and CSF as opposed to doing Each Way bets if I think there may be a danger to my selection. Exactas can pay higher than CSF's if the higher odds are before the lower odds.
I did try the tote Swinger bet the other day (1000 guineas) - had 1st and 2nd (see Tipp. Comp 7th June) but was a bit disappointed with the return. Probably down to picking 4 horses and no attendance on the course at the moment which would boost the bet pools obviously.

I am currently trying to crack 6 runner races. If you can rule out the favourite ( say, place it 3rd or worse ), and rule out one or two outsiders, a couple of horses around the 4/1 mark pays around 20/1. When you speak Chesham Chesham of Benter having a nerve, I guess in this case for me, it's having the nerve to oppose a (hopefully) bad favourite and gain an edge over the general betting public.
 
Last edited:

Stevet1859

Yearling
How do you use the ratings and the results of how they have performed Tony? Be interested to hear your approach.....thank you, Steve
 

tony spencer

Yearling
I have spent years doing this and spent lots of time with different data sets presenting the data is the difficult part .
Thank you for posting this up Tony. Very interesting. Just taking today as a sample, (and if I understand it right) taking those 6 or more clear, then its a profit of almost 11 points at SP at 1pt level stakes. Be following to see how this develops.
Yes thats correct
 

kenny jones

Yearling
Hi all,
How on earth can AI predict the outcome of a randome event,when A1 would be the first thing to tell you that this is impossible.
Kenny
 
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