Namics Rugby Picks
- Thread starter namic
- Start date
namic
Filly
A background…
All my selections are based on stats, I do not take into consideration; league position, Head to Head, weather conditions etc, but every now and again I have to use my head. I tend to check the last 5 and 3 games of the home team playing at home and the away team playing away. I will then try and locate of there is much value through the markets; No Draw Handicap and Total Match Points. Usually this is strictly to league competition games, although I do tend to have a dabble during the European club comps and international games.
The below is a short write up based on the stats, I try to do this for all games, but most of the time that (time) gets in the way of me doing them.
Bath v Sale 19:45 – Aviva Premiership
Total Match Points 43.5
Baths last 5 home games has seen U 43.5 hit 3 times as has Sales last 5 away games. This gives us 6/10 times which equates to a stats price of 1.66, Paddy Power offer 1.66 (4/6) for U43.5 so no value to be had there. Looking at the last 3 games for both teams, the U 43.5 has only hit one time each giving us 2/6, a stats price of 3.00. This means that the stats price for O 43.5 is 1.50 and Paddys are offering 11/10 (2.10) for this. A very tempting price, however the O 40.5 on offer at Corals at 1.83 (5/6) is more favourable as we are still getting decent value but a better line
Cardiff v Connacht 19:35 – Pro 12
No Draw Handicap -5.5 (Home Team)
Cardiff has won by this handicap 3/5 times and Connacht has lost by this margin 3/5 times. This gives us 6/10 times which equates to a stats price of 1.66, we can get 1.91 (10/11) which gives us value, but looking at the last 3 games we only have 2/6 in the stats, meaning that a +5.5 handicap for the away team has come in 4/6 times 1.50.
Total Match Points 40.5
Cardiff’s last 5 home games has seen the total points finish U 40.5 in all 4/5, U 40.5 was the result in 3/5 of Connachts games. This gives 7/10 for U 40.5 1.42, Coral are offering 1.83 for U40.5. In the last 3 games for both of these teams the overall stat for U 40.5 is 4/6 1.50, so further supports the U 40.5.
Glasgow v Zebre 19:35 – Pro 12
No Draw Handicap -24.5 (Home Team)
Glasgow have met this handicap 0/5 times while the away team has only lost by this margin 1/5, 9/10 overall with a stat price of 1.11, Bet365 are offering 2.00 for the away team +24.5, great value. The last 3 games backs this up even further as the overall stats are 6/6.
Total Match Points 45.5
The details are exactly the same as the above for U45.5; you can get 1.91 with Bet365. You can get U47.5 with Betway at 1.85. This takes my fancy.
Bath v Sale my bet is 1 pt on Over 40.5 – Corals 1.83
Cardiff v Connacht my bet is 1 pt on Under 40.5 – Corals 1.83
Glasgow v Zebre my bet is 1 pt on Under 47.5 – Betway 1.85
All my selections are based on stats, I do not take into consideration; league position, Head to Head, weather conditions etc, but every now and again I have to use my head. I tend to check the last 5 and 3 games of the home team playing at home and the away team playing away. I will then try and locate of there is much value through the markets; No Draw Handicap and Total Match Points. Usually this is strictly to league competition games, although I do tend to have a dabble during the European club comps and international games.
The below is a short write up based on the stats, I try to do this for all games, but most of the time that (time) gets in the way of me doing them.
Bath v Sale 19:45 – Aviva Premiership
Total Match Points 43.5
Baths last 5 home games has seen U 43.5 hit 3 times as has Sales last 5 away games. This gives us 6/10 times which equates to a stats price of 1.66, Paddy Power offer 1.66 (4/6) for U43.5 so no value to be had there. Looking at the last 3 games for both teams, the U 43.5 has only hit one time each giving us 2/6, a stats price of 3.00. This means that the stats price for O 43.5 is 1.50 and Paddys are offering 11/10 (2.10) for this. A very tempting price, however the O 40.5 on offer at Corals at 1.83 (5/6) is more favourable as we are still getting decent value but a better line
Cardiff v Connacht 19:35 – Pro 12
No Draw Handicap -5.5 (Home Team)
Cardiff has won by this handicap 3/5 times and Connacht has lost by this margin 3/5 times. This gives us 6/10 times which equates to a stats price of 1.66, we can get 1.91 (10/11) which gives us value, but looking at the last 3 games we only have 2/6 in the stats, meaning that a +5.5 handicap for the away team has come in 4/6 times 1.50.
Total Match Points 40.5
Cardiff’s last 5 home games has seen the total points finish U 40.5 in all 4/5, U 40.5 was the result in 3/5 of Connachts games. This gives 7/10 for U 40.5 1.42, Coral are offering 1.83 for U40.5. In the last 3 games for both of these teams the overall stat for U 40.5 is 4/6 1.50, so further supports the U 40.5.
Glasgow v Zebre 19:35 – Pro 12
No Draw Handicap -24.5 (Home Team)
Glasgow have met this handicap 0/5 times while the away team has only lost by this margin 1/5, 9/10 overall with a stat price of 1.11, Bet365 are offering 2.00 for the away team +24.5, great value. The last 3 games backs this up even further as the overall stats are 6/6.
Total Match Points 45.5
The details are exactly the same as the above for U45.5; you can get 1.91 with Bet365. You can get U47.5 with Betway at 1.85. This takes my fancy.
Bath v Sale my bet is 1 pt on Over 40.5 – Corals 1.83
Cardiff v Connacht my bet is 1 pt on Under 40.5 – Corals 1.83
Glasgow v Zebre my bet is 1 pt on Under 47.5 – Betway 1.85
Holty10
Colt
namic No, I dont have one. I guess I could start one, but like you it's probably a bit early in the season to be having serious bets.Just a few for interest at the minute. I'd think saints will have to go for a big score tonight, after the leeds result last night. Also think Widnes might have a chance with the +13.5.
namic
Filly
I was on O 42.5 in the Leeds game last night. They ran riot in the second half, think it will be at least 2 more rounds until I get serious. NRL started as well. My knowledge of the sport is minimal really in comparison to football, as I mention I base my selections on the stats but I do like to watch both disciplines
namic
Filly
Good shout on the Widnes +13.5, were you on it?
Just a few for interest at the minute. I'd think saints will have to go for a big score tonight, after the leeds result last night. Also think Widnes might have a chance with the +13.5.
namic
Filly
+0.68 pts for tonights Rugby
namic
Filly
Selections for 07/03/2015
Not really got the time for the write ups as there are a few selections, but if anyone is interested in my justification for the selections please let me know...
14:00 Ospreys +4.5 1.82 888Sport
15:00 London Irish +10.5 1.91 Coral
17:15 Scarlets +2.5 1.80 Coral
17:30 Clermont v Bayonne U 49.5 1.83 SpreadEx
17:30 Montpellier v La Rochelle U 47.5 1.91 SpreadEx
17:30 Beziers -3.5 1.79 888Sport
17:30 Massy -6.5 1.85 888Sport
17:45 Racing v Grenoble U 43.5 1.83 Spread Ex
I also liked the below, but have decided not to back them due to the selections above having a slightly higher statistical advantage and that I think 8 bets is more than enough for tomorrow.
15:15 Gloucester v Northampton O 43.5 1.83 Paddy Power
17:30 Albi +11.5 1.91 888Sport
17:30 Dax +10.5 1.85 888Sport
17:30 Carcasonne +13.5 1.8 888Sport
18:00 Treviso v Edinburgh U 41.5 1.83 Spread Ex
Not really got the time for the write ups as there are a few selections, but if anyone is interested in my justification for the selections please let me know...
14:00 Ospreys +4.5 1.82 888Sport
15:00 London Irish +10.5 1.91 Coral
17:15 Scarlets +2.5 1.80 Coral
17:30 Clermont v Bayonne U 49.5 1.83 SpreadEx
17:30 Montpellier v La Rochelle U 47.5 1.91 SpreadEx
17:30 Beziers -3.5 1.79 888Sport
17:30 Massy -6.5 1.85 888Sport
17:45 Racing v Grenoble U 43.5 1.83 Spread Ex
I also liked the below, but have decided not to back them due to the selections above having a slightly higher statistical advantage and that I think 8 bets is more than enough for tomorrow.
15:15 Gloucester v Northampton O 43.5 1.83 Paddy Power
17:30 Albi +11.5 1.91 888Sport
17:30 Dax +10.5 1.85 888Sport
17:30 Carcasonne +13.5 1.8 888Sport
18:00 Treviso v Edinburgh U 41.5 1.83 Spread Ex
Holty10
Colt
Just small stakes on both, luckily a bit more on Widnes so a small profit. But better than none. Saints were 8 points up and missed a few opportunities to score again. So close on that one too. Castleford hammering Wigan was one hell of a result too.
Well done on the profitable start
namic
Filly
Thanks mate, small profit but a mate of mine says "it takes many drops to fill the bucket". I didnt see that hammering coming at all mate. Definitely waiting for a few more rounds to be played before I get stuck into super league.Just small stakes on both, luckily a bit more on Widnes so a small profit. But better than none. Saints were 8 points up and missed a few opportunities to score again. So close on that one too. Castleford hammering Wigan was one hell of a result too.
Well done on the profitable start
I notice you're a Bolton fan. How's things with Lennon? Should be safe this year the bottom 3 are awful. I'm a Forest fan so we've had a differing season. A cracking start then the wheels firmly came off until we changed managers. Big game vs Boro today I'm still optimistic that we have an outside chance but we would have to win majority of the final games. I've seen stranger things happen in this league
Holty10
Colt
Yeah it's tough to call at the minute, just had a look at todays. Catalans -19.5 v Salford. Don't think I can call it. Very hard place to go to, but quite a lot of points.
They were going great and even a few of us started to dream of a late playoff push. But the injuries put an end to that. Think we need to make sure and hit the 50 point mark, but we should scrape it. Freedman had us miss out on it narrowly in his first season with us. There's always a chance, but the top 6 all seem to pick up points. When he started to build his own squad we fell apart. Some of the worst performances I've seen. You've got to hope he's learned from his mistakes or you dont have much to look forward to if I'm honest. Good luck this year though
namic
Filly
Another steady day with 5 winners from 8
14:00 Ospreys +4.5 1.82 888Sport - WIN +0.82 pts
15:00 London Irish +10.5 1.91 Coral - WIN +0.91 pts
17:15 Scarlets +2.5 1.80 Coral - WIN +0.80 pts
17:30 Clermont v Bayonne U 49.5 1.83 SpreadEx - WIN +0.83 pts
17:30 Montpellier v La Rochelle U 47.5 1.91 SpreadEx - WIN +0.91 pts
17:30 Beziers -3.5 1.79 888Sport - LOST -1 pt
17:30 Massy -6.5 1.85 888Sport - LOST -1 pt
17:45 Racing v Grenoble U 43.5 1.83 Spread Ex - LOST -1 pt
+1.27 for the day
Total Bets - 11
Total Winners - 7
Total P&L - +1.95
Oh and by the way, the 5 games that I decided not to bet on all typically won!!
14:00 Ospreys +4.5 1.82 888Sport - WIN +0.82 pts
15:00 London Irish +10.5 1.91 Coral - WIN +0.91 pts
17:15 Scarlets +2.5 1.80 Coral - WIN +0.80 pts
17:30 Clermont v Bayonne U 49.5 1.83 SpreadEx - WIN +0.83 pts
17:30 Montpellier v La Rochelle U 47.5 1.91 SpreadEx - WIN +0.91 pts
17:30 Beziers -3.5 1.79 888Sport - LOST -1 pt
17:30 Massy -6.5 1.85 888Sport - LOST -1 pt
17:45 Racing v Grenoble U 43.5 1.83 Spread Ex - LOST -1 pt
+1.27 for the day
Total Bets - 11
Total Winners - 7
Total P&L - +1.95
Oh and by the way, the 5 games that I decided not to bet on all typically won!!
namic
Filly
I tend to stay away from internationals if I can help it but I fancy Wales. Ireland as strong and have proved that in their 2 home games vs England and France. Their other game was away to Italy. Wales come into this on the back of 2 away wins vs Scotland and France. They will have something to prove at home after their loss vs england