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My V.D.W journey!

formtheory

formtheory

Stallion
Hi everybody !

I thought I would start a thread where I will show my selections each day and any thoughts I have, cannot wait for the jumps season to kick in now!!

My selection for tomorrow is:
Musselburgh 3:45: Hawdyerwheesht taken 11-1 1pt E.W

2nd on Ability rating, coming from the highest class race LTO class 100.

Has shown improved form his last 2 starts, LTO slowly away and beaten 1 length 1/2 by the progressive officially rated 90 Alcaeus. (Chesham knows that one well)

Tomorrow he runs off the same mark and only 1lb more physical weight, and a drop in class with regard to class of field.

Most of the competition are stepping up in class, my Selection should go well with G.Lee in the saddle tomorrow.

The selection is a C&D winner, whose LTO race was also over C&D, which to me is a positive.
He is not in the three most consistent due to his 3rd last race but has improved on his last two runs.
 
The one thing that bothers me is that he won a class 4 off 74 and went up to 79 and has not yet won in class 3. For his last race has managed to get himself pushed up another 3 lbs to 82

Discay ridden by Joe Fanning and Joe Fanning rode the H to win, my thinking is Fanning would be telling his boss not to put Discay in this race if he thought H was good enough to pose a threat.

Could be me being paranoid but with the above Rise in OR


The Layers look like they want to have Calculated Risk for their profit as they have him at 2.9 times his implied odds which is a big negative

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Good to hear Taff!

Just checked the Chesham Class Ratings too, according to them he is top rated and dropping along way in class from LTO.

Lets hope he goes in!
 
  1. The rise in O.R did put me off a little but I feel with most of the comp moving up along way in class he should be ok.

We shall see!
Take care
Paul.
 
Hi Chesham!

My selection is running off 79 still?

1lb more physical but O.R the same and class ceiling 5lb less than LTO, ran RPR of 84 too.
 
There is no pace in this race and Hawdyerwheesht needs something to aim at. He has never placed in a race where the top weight has been rated 75 or higher, 0-9. It is very possible Discay may well make the running but there just isnt any pace.

You could say he was just beaten 1.5ls by a 90 rated improving 3yo last time who was winning his sixth race and his fourth the time before was against a 92 rated horse. His first and seconds have come off the following marks; 74,68,67,64,61,57,58,57.
I really hope he comes in for you as I'm not playing in the race but the lack of pace is a real concern.
 
Last edited:
Not a bad race this formtheory, although the SL describes it as a bit of a lottery. :)
My top four are ranked in this order:-
Hawdyerwheesht
Corton Lad
Discay
Calculated Risk

The market however favours Discay and Calculated Risk. I'll be having x1 win on CR and x1 win + x2 place on D. Corton Lad is the only one that appears to have really contracted from earlier so may be worth x1 to place.
All @ BFSP for me.
Should be an interesting watch. :pray:
 
Cheers Rob!

I really do appreciate your input but like you say, need to have your own opinion!

Would kick myself if it won at the price available.

Have a good day mate and thanks again!

Paul.
 
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