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My Take On The Day

Sean

Sire
Gonna pop my bets / thoughts on the days racing on here when i have any ... given my luck at the moment im not expecting to make a great start to be honest but hey ho in for a penny , in for a pound and all that

Straight forward 1 point wins .. and will keep a running tally of how they do
 
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Monday 12th February

2.45 Plumpton - Alto Alto 10/3 (Hills,Coral,Lads,Skybet)

Four horse race where you could probably give a chance to all the runners tbh but i've come down on the side of Chris Gordons' ALTO ALTO who caught my eye being the only CD winner in the field , definatley has a liking for it here at Plumpton with a win over todays CD on sole attempt and three wins from four runs at the course overall. Took a 2m handicap hurdle last time here , beating Birdman Bob (a fancy of mine later in the day so if he can win this that bodes well for BB later on to my eyes) by a length and three quarters. So he seems to up his game when running here at Plumpton and at the price i think hes worth a pop. Rex Dingle has ridden him the last twice , so has one win from those. Has done well here this season with a 21.7% strike rate along with a healthy profit of +24.25 to boot. Trainer Chris Gordon has also been doing well here this term with a 21.2% strike rate and been amongst the winners with a 22% strike rate over the last fortnight. When the pair have pooled their talents over the last three weeks they have a 16% strike rate. As i say a race where you could give all the participants a chance but given his course form im happy enough to side with the selection.

3.45 Plumpton - Chanceaux 9/1 (Hills,Coral)
Taking a chance with the rank outsider of the four here so obviously comes with risks attached but i like its chances and at the price i thought it worth a go. As with the 2.45 a chance could be given to all four runners as they all come into this in form , CHANCEAUX has won his last two races , lto beating Parisencore by a neck at Doncaster , those two wins both come on heavy going and looking at his record he seems to go better when underfoot conditions are softer. One from on here at Plumpton and whilst he hasnt won at todays distance he has placed in two of his three runs over it. A 4lb rise for those wins isnt too bad and i think he can make his presence felt. Jonathon Burke in the hot seat and he has a place from hos sole start on the horse to date and has a 12% strike rate in the last couple of weeks , and over the last five years when coming here hes managed a 32% strike rate , trainer Alastair Ralph sends just this one to the meeting and in the same time period has notched a 41.7% strike rate here at Plumpton. I think he can go well and outrun his odds.

4.15 Plumpton - Birdman Bob 5/2 (365,Hills,Coral,Skybet,Lads)
BIRDMAN BOB catches my eye in this , comes into this in decent enough form coming second the last twice. As mentioned above he was beaten by Alto Alto on his penultimate run and was then beaten by Nickelforce last time out , both here at Plumpton. Usually runs well round here with a place on his only start over CD and a win and two places from five outings overall. That run over CD last time out was a solid effort and despite the rise in class i think he can definatley make his presence felt here this afternoon. Philip Armson has ridden him the last twice and overall on the horse he has a win and those two places from his three rides so gets on well enough with the horse. Hes here for just this one ride , and trainer Andy Irvine sends just this one to the meeting. Think he stands a decent chance of getting his head in front today.

8.30 Wolverhampton - Wedgewood 16/1 (365,Hills,Coral,BFred,Lads) - Munificent 10/3 (Hills,Coral,BFred,Lads)
Like the look of a couple in this one so going double handed and keeping me fingers crossed ! First one is WEDGEWOOD who was a poor 11th/12 when last seen over 6f here at Wolverhampton back in December 23 , has been off since but won on re appearance (over CD) last year so hoping for a repeat performance here this evening , and the fact that she reverts back to 5f tonight didnt go un noticed , seems that this is her best trip and im hoping for a good showing here , three from three over CD and the fact that Hollie Doyle is re united with her caught my eye as well , only ridden the horse once to date and that was on her re appearance run last year over CD so im hoping for a bit of DeJa Vu .. been in decent form with a 13% strike rate over the last three weeks and she has a 15.4% strike rate over the last five years when coming to Wolverhampton. And when teaming up with trainer Tony Carroll over the past 21 days they come away with a 33% strike rate , the trainer has also been amongst the winners lately with a 17% strike rate over the last two weeks. At the price i think shes worth a go. The other one i like is MUNIFICENT who arrives on the back of a decent enough fourth at Kempton last time out , given his liking for it here (three wins and a place from eight runs over CD) im hoping for a solid effort tonight. I think its interesting that the trainer seems to target this race with this horse , was third to Astrophysics last year , beaten a length , and won it in 2022 beating Amazing Amaya by a short head. Is now below last winning mark and looks to be nicely berthed to me. Chelsea Banham and Joey Haynes both here for just this one today which is another thing that caught my eye.

7.30 Wolverhampton - Daheer 12/1 (Hills) - Tiger Beetle 9/2 (Hills)
Another race where two catch my eye .. DAHEER was last seen at the end of last year when a sorry 9th of 12 over 1m4f here at Wolverhampton , to be fair its easy to excuse that run and the prior two runs as he was coming back from a layoff of 114 days and before that had been holding his own and acquitting himself well without actually getting his head in front. Has been giving a break of 48 days and hopefully returning to a CD where he does well at can see him in a much better light , has won and gone well coming back from a lay off in the past so not unduly worried about that and as i mentioned he does well here with five wins and four places from thirteen runs over this evenings CD. Also caught my eye that due to his last few runs he gets in here off a handy looking mark having won off higher which is a tick in the right box for me. Doesnt look too badly drawn and i think theres a fair chance that he could outrun his odds , or im hoping so. TIGER BEETLE has to be on the shortlist for me as all his wins have come over this evenings CD , and overall hes three wins and two places from his seven runs (CD) so obviously has a liking for it round here and for me it'd be silly to ignore his chances over a CD he excels at. Has a nice draw and should be making his presence felt here i feel , has won off higher than todays mark which is another plus. Trainer Mark Rimmel and jockey Rob Hornby both here for just this one and both seem to do well enough here at the course , should be in the mix come the business end of things.
 
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Results / Monday 12th February

Alto Alto 10/3 :handgestures-thumbup: Won

Chanceaux 9/1 Lost (4th)
Birdman Bob 5/2 Lost (UR)
Wedgewood 16/1 Lost (8th)
Munificent 10/3 Lost (4th)
Daheer 12/1 Lost (7th)
Tiger Beetle 9/2 Lost (6th)

Running Total .. Bets 7 .. Won 1 .. +/- -2.67
 
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Tuesday 13th February

3.00 Lingfield - Movethechains 7/2 (365)

MOVETHECHAINS catches my eye in this one , comes into this on the back of a resounding seven length win over Animal over this afternoons CD , same grade , and enhanced his already solid course record , with a win and a place from two runs over CD and five wins and a place from his six runs at the course overall so definatley has a liking for it here at Leafy. Has gone up a mighty 9lb for that lto win but considering he was a decent second off higher in this race last year , i think he can manage that. Gary Moore has a 24% strike rate over the last couple of weeks , and he does well when sending his runners here with an overall strike rate of 16%. Caoilin Quinn is proving to be good value for his 3lb claim and comes into this in decent form with a 20% strike rate in the last two weeks , and when trainer and jockey have teamed up over the last three weeks they come away with a 20% strike rate. Has ridden the horse three times to date resulting in a win and a place. Should be there or thereabouts.

4.24 Newcastle - Churchella 3/1 (365,Lads) - Bobby Shaftoe 10/1 (365,Hills)
Like the look of a couple in this , firstly BOBBY SHAFTOE who was a decent enough fourth of nine last time out over 2m1/2f here at Newcastle , i think this drop in trip will help his cause as he is three from seven over todays CD and for me seems better at this sort of trip. Has won from a higher mark than todays and everything else , draw and class , looks to be okay to me and i think he should be making his presence felt here. Trainer Jim Goldie has been doing well here this term with a 21.7% strike rate and has his string in decent order at the moment having a 23% strike rate over the last three weeks. Claimer Alex Jary up for the first time on the horse and his 5lb claim could come in handy and has a 17% strike rate in the last fortnight. CHURCHELLA is the other one i like , was a sound second last time out at Southwell over 2m1/2f , before that she beat Grand Duchess Olga over 1m6f here at Newcastle. As with my other selection i think shes happier over this sort of trip than her last time out one , and shes one from two over todays CD and seems to like the all weather as shes two wins and two places from five runs on the artificial surfaces overall. The fact that David O'Meara relies on just this one today didnt go un noticed , and has an 11% strike rate at Newcastle overall. Daniel Tudhope , whose yet to be unplaced on her in three runs (two wins and a place) , takes the ride and he too is here for just this one. Has a 31% strike rate over the last three weeks and when riding for the trainer over the same period the pair have clocked up a 25% strike rate.

6.30 Newcastle - Master Dandy 4/1 (Hills,Coral,SkyBet,BFred,Lads)
Handicap debutant MASTER DANDY is my selection for this one , yet to be out of the placings in his three runs to date with a win , and two places. Was a decent enough second over 5f at Wolverhampton last time but prior to that had won over this evenings CD , opening handicap mark doesnt look too bad imo , good of been better but i think its workable and Jamie Fanshawe is a trainer i rate and the fact he has just this one here could point to a decent showing. Jockey Tommy Jakes has a 25% strike rate over the last couple of weeks , and his 7lb claim wont hurt in the slightest and hes been doing well here this term with a 26.7% strike rate and a very healthy looking +£17.50 to boot.

7.30 Newcastle - Blackcurrent 13/2 (Hills)
Was fourth to the re opposing Fantasy Navigator last time out over tonights CD , (and Cubanista a head in front of him in third) but im hoping that he can turn the tables on the pair of them here. Seems to love it here with six wins and three places (two each over CD) and to me everything points to a solid run. Tommy Jakes in the plate (stats above) and was a neck second on his sole ride to date on the horse , trainer Alan Brown sends just this one to the course and il be surprised if he doesnt figure in the finish.

2.15 Ayr - Moonlighter 15/2 (365,SkyBet) - Ardera Cross 12/1 (365,BFred,Lads)
At the prices im gonna side with a couple in this one , firstly CD specialist ARDERA CROSS who won here last time over todays CD , beating the re opposing Fia Fuinidh by 2 lengths and im hoping that he can confirm those placings this afternoon. To be honest you cant discount the horse here where hes won half of his 18 career victories , nine wins and three places , with six of those wins coming over this afternoons CD. Has won off higher marks and the ground should pose no problem im having a hard job not seeing him going close if im being honest. Danny McMenamin rode him last time out and is one from one on him and is re united with the horse today whilst trainer William Young Jr sends just this one to the meeting , at the price i think hes well worth a punt. MOONLIGHTER is the other one i like at what i consider a decent price. The joint top weight is having his first start here at Ayr but what catches my eye is the fact that Kim Bailey sends just this one on the long schlepp from Gloucester and i cant see him sending him there if he didnt think he stood some sort of chance. Hos wins have all come on soft or heavy , as has his best runs , so underfoot conditions shouldnt be a problem , and again at the price on offer i think hes worth a go.
 
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Gonna pop my bets / thoughts on the days racing on here when i have any ... given my luck at the moment im not expecting to make a great start to be honest but hey ho in for a penny , in for a pound and all that

Straight forward 1 point wins .. and will keep a running tally of how they do
Enter the tipping competition Sean Sean
 
Results / Tuesday 13th February

Movethechains 7/2 Lost (3rd)
Churchella 3/1 Lost (5th)
Bobby Shaftoe 10/1 Lost (2nd)
Master Dandy 4/1 Lost (9th)
Blackcurrent 13/2 Lost (4th)
Moonlighter 15/2 Lost (5th)
Ardera Cross 12/1 Lost (6th)

Running Total .. Bets 14 .. Won 1 .. +/- -9.67
 
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Im seriously kicking meself , in the 3.00 i posted up Movethechains but had also shortlisted Jubilee Express / Whydah Gally , with preference for WD , was gonna post up MTC and WD but talked meself out of it , who won ? WD at 12/1 .. Shoeshine Boy and Pallas Lord were another pair that i talked meself out of backing .. and i have a feeling that in the 6.30 ive done it again , gone for Master Dandy and though hes drifting still happy enough with that , but was also looking at Grantwood as well , which is another one i talked meself out of , being backed and im not gonna be best pleased if he wins i gotta say
 
Im seriously kicking meself , in the 3.00 i posted up Movethechains but had also shortlisted Jubilee Express / Whydah Gally , with preference for WD , was gonna post up MTC and WD but talked meself out of it , who won ? WD at 12/1 .. Shoeshine Boy and Pallas Lord were another pair that i talked meself out of backing .. and i have a feeling that in the 6.30 ive done it again , gone for Master Dandy and though hes drifting still happy enough with that , but was also looking at Grantwood as well , which is another one i talked meself out of , being backed and im not gonna be best pleased if he wins i gotta say

and Grantwood obliges , F*** my luck
 
Wednesday 14th February

4.25 Kempton - Airshow 16/1 (Hills,BFred,Lads)

I keep backing AIRSHOW in the hope that todays gonna be the day and im hoping , once again , that today is gonna be the day ! Hasnt won in a fair while but has run well in defeat on several occasions and i can see him going in sooner rather than later if im being honest. Was a decent 2 1/4 length third last time out over 7f at Southwell and if coming into this in the same sort of mood then i can see him going close at a decent price. Has placed on only start over this afternoons CD but has three wins (and four places) to his credit from eleven runs here at Kempton overall. Has won at the distance and the draw doesnt look too bad to me. Has won over todays distance (Southwell) and has placed a further three times from his six runs at it. Rod Millmans a trainer i like and he has a 25% strike rate over the last four weeks , whilst 3lb claimer Joe Leavy takes the steering job for the first time and he has a 19% strike rate in the last couple of weeks whilst having a 20% strike rate at the course this term. Admittedly a bit of a cliff horse for me but can make his presence felt in a race of this nature and at the price worth a go imho.

6.30 Kempton - Crystal Casque 15/2 (365,BFred)
And another Rod Millman inmate , so hopefully he can have a good day and get a brace up. CRYSTAL CASQUE came back from a 78 day lay off to win first time up , then followed that up with a poor effort when last of eight , and last time was once again last of four , only beaten 3 lengths though and in all fairness i think that was a better race than todays. To be honest hes not the most reliable of horses and can suddenly spring a surprise after a poor run so im hoping today he can follow up those last two efforts with a big run. Although others come into this in better form i think his course / distance form stands out and should hold him in good stead , three wins and three places from eleven outings over CD and five wins / eight places overall from his 27 runs. Interesting to see that Oisin Murphy is back in board tonight , could be a sign that a decent run could be on the cards , two wins and a place from his five rides to date so fingers crossed its gonna be three wins and a place from six rides after the race.
 
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Results / Wednesday 14th February

Airshow 16/1 Lost (6th)
Crystal Casque 15/2 Lost (5th)

Running Total .. Bets 16 .. Won 1 .. +/- -11.67
 
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Well this isnt going according to plan , seriously this is the worst run ive had in years and i cant figure out why .. anyways the rots gotta stop sooner or later so onwards and upwards :)
 
Thursday 15th February

4.15 Sandown - Trincomalee 12/1 (Hills,Coral,BFred,Lads) - Hudson De Grugy 9/2 (Hills,Coral,BFred,Lads)

Open looking race where three initially caught my eye but ive settled on two to go with in the end .. TRINCOMALEE was one i backed last time out , hadnt been seen since April 2022 and it showed but i felt that trainer Lucy Wadham was eager to get a run in to it as it had been put into several races which were abandoned , came sixth and tbh didnt show alot but i think after that initial outing he should hopefully strip alot fitter here , has placed on his only start here at Sandown , and though he hasnt won at todays distance he has placed in all three runs over it. The going and class are all okay and despite having not won over the bigger obstacles yet i think he can go well. Tom Cannon in the hot seat and he has a 23.4% strike rate over the last four weeks , and whilst the trainer is having a bit of a barren spell at the moment she can get one ready and does have a 28.6% strike rate here this term. The other one i like is HUDSON DE GRUGY who also came back from a lay off last time out (and after having wind surgery as well) , and managed a decent third over 1m7 1/2f here at Sandown , with that run under his belt i can see a better effort here this afternoon. Despite not having tried this trip before i think hes worth a go at it , and especially here at Sandown where he has a good record - four wins and two places from nine runs. Class and the going isnt an issue and hes now down to his last winning mark , which all says to me that a decent run could well be on the cards. Gary Moore has a 24% strike rate over the last couple of weeks , and his runners have been doing well here this term with a 23.1% strike rate. Whilst jockey Niall Houlihan is also enjoying a purple patch at the moment with a 23% strike rate over the past fortnight , and his travels to Sandown have proved fruitful this season with a 27/3% strike rate. When the trainer and jockey have teamed up over the last three weeks they come away with a 27% strike rate.

7.30 Chelmsford - Masterclass 13/2 (365) - Blackjack 13/2 (Hills,Coral,Lads)
A few in this look as though they could go well but two in particular catch my eye at what i consider to be decent prices. The first one is MASTERCLASS who was a sound enough third at Southwell last time out , and should be able to make his presence felt here. Has won and placed from three runs over CD , last win coming back in November over CD when he beat Starsong by 3/4 length , David Simcock been seeing alot of the winners enclosure of late with a 24.2% strike rate over the last month , he does well with his runners here with a 16.8% strike rate and the fact he sends just this one to the meeting caught my eye. Alistair Rawlinson in the saddle for the first time , and he has a 16.7% strike rate this season when coming here along with a tidy profit of +£11.00. BLACKJACK is my other selection , has run well both times since coming back from 188 days off , second first time up and then a length third to Kitaab last time out , both those runs were at Southwell over this evenings distance. Has won at todays 6f but as yet not at Chelmsford , where hes placed twice from his two attempts over CD. 3lb claimer Johnny Peate has placed on his sole ride on the horse to date , and has a 14% strike rate over the last couple of weeks. Should be able to make his presence felt and can hopefully put in a decent run.

1.55 Sandown - Gunsight Ridge 13/2 (365,Hills)
Short priced favourite in the Skelton horse , Etalon , and entirely possible that he gets the three timer up but at the prices im willing to give the Olly Murphy trained GUNSIGHT RIDGE a go. Was running a stormer last time out when returning to action after 406 days off , disputing the lead when tipping up four from home , if standing up could well of gone in so i think that this could well be a retrieval race. Has a win and a place from two runs at the course , and though he is now 9 years old he only has eight chase races under his saddle , winning two of them and placing in a further three so even though hes getting on theres a chance that there could be more to come. Has gone well from this sort of mark before and the fact that the trainer is in tip top form with a 35% strike rate over the last two weeks gives me hope that he has his horses in good order and a better showing could be on the cards from the selection today. Jockey Sean Bowen takes the ride and hes won on the horse before and when hes ridden for Murphy over the last three weeks the pair have a 33% strike rate.
 
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Results / Thursday 15th February

Trincomalee 12/1 Lost (2nd)
Hudson De Grugy 9/2 Lost
Masterclass 13/2 Lost (3rd)
Blackjack 13/2 :handgestures-thumbup: 1st
Gunsight Ridge 13/2 Lost (2nd)

Running Total .. Bets 21 .. Won 2 .. +/- -9.17
 
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Friday 16th February

4.40 Wolverhampton - El Hombre 16/1 (Hills,Coral,BFred,Lads) - Alafdhal 2/1 (365,Hills)
A few look as though they could take a hand in this one but for me theres two whose chances i rate more than others .. EL HOMBRE is the first one , was a decent enough third over CD last time out and if coming into this on song should be able to make his presence felt , has won three times and placed in a further seven over this afternoons CD , and the fact that hes won off higher marks makes me think he can go close here at a decent price. Looks decently berthed and has Billy Loughnane on board , whose won twice and placed three times from his eight rides to date. He has an 18.8% strike rate over the last four weeks , and has a 16% strike rate when riding here this term. Trainer has a 14% strike rate over the last couple of weeks , and when he and the jockey have teamed up over the last three weeks they have a 21% strike rate. ALAFDHAL is my other selection , beat the re opposing Warminster by a neck lto and i think he can beat him again here , has won off much higher than todays mark which gives him a sound chance of a follow up imho. Has won twice and placed once from his three runs over CD , draw and class both look okay , and the fact that the in form Rossa Ryan is reunited with the horse after his win on him last time boosts my confidence i have to say.

8.15 Wolverhampton - English Spirit 5/1 (365)
This race looks wide open to me and im going with bottom weight ENGLISH SPIRIT , comes into this on the back of a rare poor effort over CD but prior to that had come third and won , with both coming over CD. Seems to save his best for here with all four of his career wins coming here at Wolverhampton , trainer Heather Main sends just this one to the meeting and she has the bang in form Billy Loughnane booked for the ride whose two from two when riding the horse. Should be there or thereabouts.
 
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