My NH Selections
- Thread starter Dave
- Start date
Dave
Colt
Mussleburgh 1:55
I’ve backed two in this race to win as both have a good chance at decent prices. I’ve backed on the exchange. I’m hoping racing goes ahead as there are concerns and an inspection.
These two like to race prominently and both love the mud and have plenty of stamina.
Hang Tough @5/1 1pt win
Real Armani @8/1 1pt win
I’ve backed two in this race to win as both have a good chance at decent prices. I’ve backed on the exchange. I’m hoping racing goes ahead as there are concerns and an inspection.
These two like to race prominently and both love the mud and have plenty of stamina.
Hang Tough @5/1 1pt win
Real Armani @8/1 1pt win
Dave
Colt
Yesterday, we were so unlucky with Real Armani who finished a close second and looked like the possible winner until making a mistake at the last which basically cost him the race. Unbelievably, it was my other selection tCudgel who had unseated his rider a the first and was running loose that caused Real Armani a bit of an issue coming into the last.
I have had two bets in the Haydock 2:40 The Peter Marsh Handicap Chase (Grade 2) The ground conditions at Haydock are going to be very heavy and this race is over 3M 2F so it is going to be stretching the stamina reserves of all of those involved. The race has cut up a bit and we now have 8 runners with Venetia Williams Royal Pagaille the current market favourite at 13/8. He is certainly a good horse and he will need to be pretty special to be carrying 11-10 around here today. The Venetia Williams horses have a reputation of being good when the mud is fly and I believe this causes them to be over bet in the market. I don't have any stats to prove or disprove this theory of how good her horses are in Heavy conditions or how the market bets on such races with her runners present.
For me the weight is too much and I prefer the chances of Smooth Stepper and Sams Adventure. Sams Adventure loves this ground and he is proven having won the Tommy Whittle chase over C&D. Today he runs of a mark of 139 which looks about right given that he was 6lbs for his latest success. I think the market price is attractive and offers good value.
My second selection is Smooth Stepper and he is another that has proven himself in these conditions on more than one occasions. The form of his Haydock win back in Feb 2020 in Unibet Grand National Trial Handicap Chase over 3M 4F is one of the main reasons for his selection. One that occasion the ground was very heavy and the distance was further and he accounted for the likes of Lord Du Mensil, Yala Enki, The Two Amigos and Vintage Cloud all of which are solid yard sticks under these conditions. He has the stamina reserves to chase down Lord Du Mensil from the last and beat him. If he reproduces that form off a 4lbs higher mark today then he is going to take a lot of beating.
I backed both of these on the Exchange last night. The price of both has shortened a bit with some none runners but still value enough.
Haydock 2:40 Sams Adventure win bet @ 5/1
Haydock 2:40 Smooth Stepper win bet @ 8/1
My final selection of the day is Good Boy Bobby in the Ascot 3:00
This looks quite a competitive race and the race conditions will again be playing a major part in the outcome. My selection has won 6 times on soft or heavy ground and the yard are in fine form at the moment. The distance should be an issue as he has good form to suggest this will be within his scope. He finished a very good 2nd to Master Tommytucker in a Grade 2 race at Haydock and the third in the race Dashel Drasher has franked the form along with the winner. LTO he finish a well beaten 4th at Cheltenham in a race won by a very well handicapped Irish Raider Chatham Street Lad. I'm expecting no ill affects from that race and expect him to bounce back today.
Ascot 3:00 - Good Boy Bobby win bet @ 4/1
As always your thoughts and comments are very welcome and I would love to know if William's horses are that good when the mud is flying. I'm sure some of you will have the tools at your disposal to either prove or disprove this common thought in racing.
Good luck.
I have had two bets in the Haydock 2:40 The Peter Marsh Handicap Chase (Grade 2) The ground conditions at Haydock are going to be very heavy and this race is over 3M 2F so it is going to be stretching the stamina reserves of all of those involved. The race has cut up a bit and we now have 8 runners with Venetia Williams Royal Pagaille the current market favourite at 13/8. He is certainly a good horse and he will need to be pretty special to be carrying 11-10 around here today. The Venetia Williams horses have a reputation of being good when the mud is fly and I believe this causes them to be over bet in the market. I don't have any stats to prove or disprove this theory of how good her horses are in Heavy conditions or how the market bets on such races with her runners present.
For me the weight is too much and I prefer the chances of Smooth Stepper and Sams Adventure. Sams Adventure loves this ground and he is proven having won the Tommy Whittle chase over C&D. Today he runs of a mark of 139 which looks about right given that he was 6lbs for his latest success. I think the market price is attractive and offers good value.
My second selection is Smooth Stepper and he is another that has proven himself in these conditions on more than one occasions. The form of his Haydock win back in Feb 2020 in Unibet Grand National Trial Handicap Chase over 3M 4F is one of the main reasons for his selection. One that occasion the ground was very heavy and the distance was further and he accounted for the likes of Lord Du Mensil, Yala Enki, The Two Amigos and Vintage Cloud all of which are solid yard sticks under these conditions. He has the stamina reserves to chase down Lord Du Mensil from the last and beat him. If he reproduces that form off a 4lbs higher mark today then he is going to take a lot of beating.
I backed both of these on the Exchange last night. The price of both has shortened a bit with some none runners but still value enough.
Haydock 2:40 Sams Adventure win bet @ 5/1
Haydock 2:40 Smooth Stepper win bet @ 8/1
My final selection of the day is Good Boy Bobby in the Ascot 3:00
This looks quite a competitive race and the race conditions will again be playing a major part in the outcome. My selection has won 6 times on soft or heavy ground and the yard are in fine form at the moment. The distance should be an issue as he has good form to suggest this will be within his scope. He finished a very good 2nd to Master Tommytucker in a Grade 2 race at Haydock and the third in the race Dashel Drasher has franked the form along with the winner. LTO he finish a well beaten 4th at Cheltenham in a race won by a very well handicapped Irish Raider Chatham Street Lad. I'm expecting no ill affects from that race and expect him to bounce back today.
Ascot 3:00 - Good Boy Bobby win bet @ 4/1
As always your thoughts and comments are very welcome and I would love to know if William's horses are that good when the mud is flying. I'm sure some of you will have the tools at your disposal to either prove or disprove this common thought in racing.
Good luck.
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Frontrunner
Stallion
Hi
Dave, having looked at the data I would say there is some truth in this theory, but it also depends on what you are comparing it with, if you compare her record with other trainers then there is not a huge difference, but if you compare it to her own record on dryer going then there is a very significant difference.I looked at all NH trainers in UK, who have had at least 2500 runners in handicaps, on this list Venetia Williams is clear by some way in terms of number of winners on heavy going, but that is simply due to her running more horses on heavy than any other trainer. In terms of strike rate, she is joint 2nd (with Donald McCain) behind only Sue Smith, her A/E figure is 0.86 which is about average, suggesting that any advantage is factored into the prices. Now, if we look at same list of trainers in handicaps on good going then Venetia drops to the bottom of list in terms of both strike rate and A/E. A/E of 0.64 showing her runners as poor value on good going.
This might sound a contradiction, but her record with favourites is actually quite good. She is 3rd best on list both on strike rate and value (A/E) on favourites in handicaps, which indicates market is important guide with her runners.
Good luck with your bets today.
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Dave
Colt
Hi
I looked at all NH trainers in UK, who have had at least 2500 runners in handicaps, on this list Venetia Williams is clear by some way in terms of number of winners on heavy going, but that is simply due to her running more horses on heavy than any other trainer. In terms of strike rate, she is joint 2nd (with Donald McCain) behind only Sue Smith, her A/E figure is 0.86 which is about average, suggesting that any advantage is factored into the prices. Now, if we look at same list of trainers in handicaps on good going then Venetia drops to the bottom of list in terms of both strike rate and A/E. A/E of 0.64 showing her runners as poor value on good going.
This might sound a contradiction, but her record with favourites is actually quite good. She is 3rd best on list both on strike rate and value (A/E) on favourites in handicaps, which indicates market is important guide with her runners.
Good luck with your bets today.
Thanks for the info F Frontrunner. Well she has certainly got a very impressive horse on her hands. I got it dreadfully wrong and neither of my selections would have got near to that performance. Be very interesting to see which race at Cheltenham he goes for.Hi
I looked at all NH trainers in UK, who have had at least 2500 runners in handicaps, on this list Venetia Williams is clear by some way in terms of number of winners on heavy going, but that is simply due to her running more horses on heavy than any other trainer. In terms of strike rate, she is joint 2nd (with Donald McCain) behind only Sue Smith, her A/E figure is 0.86 which is about average, suggesting that any advantage is factored into the prices. Now, if we look at same list of trainers in handicaps on good going then Venetia drops to the bottom of list in terms of both strike rate and A/E. A/E of 0.64 showing her runners as poor value on good going.
This might sound a contradiction, but her record with favourites is actually quite good. She is 3rd best on list both on strike rate and value (A/E) on favourites in handicaps, which indicates market is important guide with her runners.
Good luck with your bets today.
Frontrunner
Stallion
Impressive performance indeed, especially for a young and inexperienced horse. I didn’t have a bet in race, but like yourself I also thought carrying big weight won’t be easy in these conditions. Cloudy Lane the only other to carry more than 11-3 to victory in this race in last 20 years, and Royal Pagaille only the 2nd horse younger than 8 to win in last 20 years (Bristol De Mai was the other).
Looking at Venetia Williams horses that ran well in this in recent years, Mon Mome, Katenko, Yala Enki all went for the Gold Cup (though with Yala Enki they waited till following season) so good chance that’s what they will go for. Ground conditions at festival are usually very different to this though.
doomster
Dam
I don't think Venetia considers him inexperienced listing to her interview
F
Frontrunner
I have him down as 11 chase runs ( I'm sure Venetia said 13) and he only made his chase debut 4 months later than Al Boums chase debut.
I thinks he's actually had more chase runs than the majority of recent Gold Cup winners.
I'm sure they will leave the decision as late as possible, but having listened to Ricci in the past, it wouldn't surprise me if he give the GC a miss to allow the Al Boum treble.
I have him down as 11 chase runs ( I'm sure Venetia said 13) and he only made his chase debut 4 months later than Al Boums chase debut.
I thinks he's actually had more chase runs than the majority of recent Gold Cup winners.
I'm sure they will leave the decision as late as possible, but having listened to Ricci in the past, it wouldn't surprise me if he give the GC a miss to allow the Al Boum treble.
Frontrunner
Stallion
Yes, you are right
doomster , I was forgetting that he started running in chases in France at 4.
I think key thing about Cheltenham is that he still has to prove himself on likely different going, and as impresssive as today’s performance was Gold Cup is another big step up. I don’t know if the comparison is right, but I am wondering if he will be like Bristol de Mai?
doomster , I was forgetting that he started running in chases in France at 4.I think key thing about Cheltenham is that he still has to prove himself on likely different going, and as impresssive as today’s performance was Gold Cup is another big step up. I don’t know if the comparison is right, but I am wondering if he will be like Bristol de Mai?