• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Musings from a Muppet

Time has been quite precious of late for various reasons. I'm sticking with this when I have the time though I have been experimenting with different aspects, particularly the starting point. I know when something gets a few winners on here people can start following them with real money, and as I've been playing around with things for various reasons, I haven't felt comfortable about posting them up. The starting point was something I've been looking at, as it severely restricts the amount of races open for scrutiny, however in retrospect I'm quite happy to return to the original starting point for a number of reasons, of which the time factor is just one. Betting the singles on their own is still showing a good profit, but linking them into small stakes multiples where possible still seems to be the way to make the bank explode although caution is a massive watchword as it's also the fast way to the poorhouse if you get too carried away. At the moment keeping my eye on results to see whether I'm better in one sphere or another or whether race types/distances are a factor. Doing it all by pen and paper though as my knowledge of anything else is appalling!
 
Quite surprised how quiet the forum is having been haunting it for the last few days. I’m sure there’s plenty going on within the inner reaches but having looked out a few of the old profiles it looks like there’s quite a few people disappeared, either through health, loss of interest or other unknown reasons.

Have been away from in depth horse racing myself for quite some time although I retained a HRB membership and had the occasional small flutter, more for interest than with a view to beating the bookies.

I still retain an interest in systems although I would consider myself someone who has evolved away from the Black and White of system betting preferring to use systems more as a way to highlight potential bets, in line with a little race reading. Some might call it method betting I guess.

All Weather , Flat and National Hunt in that order I'm afraid for gambling purposes which is bound to alienate a few of the purists.

Hoping to be around and swap a few ideas going forward but as I’m re-educating myself I won’t be rushing to post up loads of different selections although I might dip my toe in occasionally and risk being shot down.

Happy to be back and hoping it’s the same welcoming place it used to be.
 
The last few days I’ve been doing a little light race reading trying to narrow fields down. Not necessarily to one horse as that’s a bkack and white success or failure but just literally narrowing them down to a probable and a couple of possibles. Trying to get myself in the right ballpark. I’ve managed to do reasonably okay finding the winner of both races I looked at but both came from my possibles rather than the probable and I would’ve done no better than break even at SP if I’d backed them all, something which isn’t within my modus operandi generally anyway. Still it’s nice to know I’m not a million miles away so as both previous were on the flat I thought I’d have a look at the all weather.

Prior to the odds being published I had a little look this morning at tomorrow’s 6:10 at Wolverhampton. Three year old handicap and not generally a lot of in depth form so probably one best steered away but hey ho, in for a penny in for a pound. I’m intrigued with how trainers mix up flat and turf campaigns with young horses, whether it’s to try and muddy the water or whether it’s to see if something clicks but a few of these are difficult to fancy on previous runs. Obviously it’s a risk discounting young horses on a handful of runs but got to start somewhere with these races.

Nine horse field and I’m drawn to numbers 1, 5, 6 and 8. Just under half the field

. #8 Never Fear made a strong start in nurseries but has struggled in handicap company this year barely beating a horse home. Dropping in the ratings and clearly goes on the all weather but hard to see it winning.

#6 Shiela’s Paradise has only been raised a 1lb for a second place last time at Kempton and is sure to be popular but that second was with a 5lb claimer on board so effectively the horse is 6lb worse off and the horse is dropping back in trip from a mile to seven furlongs.

#5 Beveragino Decent course form in novice and maiden company although this is her first run in an all weather handicap. Did nothing in previous run on turf but Kevin Stott is back in the saddle having won on her on their only previous ride together.

#1 Bengurion Another one who started strongly as a novice but hasn’t beaten a horse home in two turf runs since. Returns to the all weather with Joe Fanning in the saddle. Up in trip and with a first time hood.


If I was going to back one horse it would be #1 with #5 and probably #8 as the dangers.

Taken that long typing this that the odds have started to open up.
15/2 on Bengurion and
10/1 on Bevaragino.


Shielas Paradise is currently the 11/4 favourite :headbang:and Never Fear is 25/1.
Haha we shall see….
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top